Prediction Competition - September 2019

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 19 by-elections during September:
- 3 on 5th September
- 5 on 12th
- 6 on 19th
- 5 on 26th

9 of the by-elections are for District Councils, four elected in May, three where the last election was in May, one where the last election was a by-election in 2018 and one where the last election was in 2016
5 are in a Unitary Authority, three where the last election was in May and two where the last election was in 2017
1 is for a Scottish authority last elected in 2017
2 are for Metropolitan Boroughs where the last election was in May
1 is for a County Council last elected in 2017 and
1 is for a London Borough last elected in 2018

Conservatives defend 8 seats, six following the death of the previous Councillor and two a resignation
Labour defend 5 seats, one following the death of the previous Councillor and four a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, both following resignations
Independents defend 2 seats, one following the death of the previous Councillor and the other failing to sign the Declaration of Office
A Residents Group defends 1 seat following a resignation although have not put up a candidate

With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a full slate of 19 candidates, Labour have 16, Liberal Democrats have 18, Greens have 12, the Justice Party have 2 whilst SNP, Brexit Party, the Liberal Party, Putting Cumbria First and Old Swan Against Cuts have 1 apiece along with 3 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 4 seats
- a total of 76 candidates for 19 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Hopefully an improvement on last week, here goes nothing.

Coventry
Conservative 43.3%
Liberal Democrats 23.8%
Labour 23%
Brexit 9.9%

Eden
Conservative 38.9%
Independent 38.8%
Putting Cumbria First 11.2%
Labour 11.1%

Hull
Labour 49%
Liberal Democrats 32%
Conservative 19%

[Right Leaning]

Coventry:- C 48, Lab 26, LD 17, BX 9
Eden:- Ind 44, C 35, PCF 15, Lab 6
Hull:- Lab 45, LD 32, C 23

[Tony Otim]

Coventry: Con 50.4; Lab 26.1; LD 13.2; Brx 10.3
Eden: Ind 44.9; Con 33.3; Lab 12.8; PCF 9.0
Hull: Lab 55.2; LD 25.7; Con 19.1

[johnloony]

Coventry: Con 47 Lab 25 LD 18 Brx 10
Eden: Ind 43 Con 36 PCF 12 Lab 9
Hull: Lab 50 LD 30 Con 20

[iainbhx]

Wainbody (Coventry MBC): Con 50 LAB 26 LDM 16 BRX 8
Penrith South (Eden DC): Ind 48 Con 30 PCF 12 Lab 10
St Andrews & Docklands (Hull UA): Lab 60 LDm 24 Con 16

[Robert Waller]

Coventry:- C 48, Lab 25, LD 20, BX 7

Eden:- Ind 34, C 38, PCF 20, Lab 8

Hull:- Lab 60, LD 30, C 10

[Davıd Boothroyd]

COVENTRY Wainbody: C 44, Lab 24, L Dem 20, BxP 12
EDEN Penrith South: Ind 43, C 35, Lab 14, PCF 8
KINGSTON-UPON-HULL St Andrews and Dockland: Lab 60, L Dem 27, C 13

[Toylyyev]

Coventry MBC, Wainbody: Conservative 44, Labour 23, Liberal Democrat 23, Brexit 10.
Eden DC, Penrith South: Independent 37, Conservative 36.9, Putting Cumbria First 17, Labour 9.1.
Kingston upon Hull UA, St Andrew's & Docklands: Labour 50, Liberal Democrat 35, Conservative 15.

[andrewp]

Coventry, Wainbody Con 44, Lab 24, LD 21, Brexit 11
Eden, Penrith South Ind 42, Con 37, Lab 11, PCF 10
Hull, St Andrews and Docklands Lab 62, LD 27, Con 11

[Deleted]

Coventry:Con 40, Lab 20, LD 25, BX 15

Eden: Ind 30, C 45, PCF 15, Lab 10

Hull:- Lab 50, LD 35, C 15

[olympian95]

Coventry: Con 53, Lab 26, LD 14, Brexit 7

Eden: Ind 41, Con 37, Lab 15, PCF 7

Hull: Lab 59, LD 31, Con 10

[greenhert]

Coventry MBC, Wainbody: Conservative 44, Labour 27, Liberal Democrats 15, Brexit 14.
Eden DC, Penrith South: Independent 45, Conservative 32, Putting Cumbria First 14, Labour 9.
Hull UA, St Andrews & Docklands: Labour 55, Liberal Democrats 34, Conservative 11.

[robbienicoll]

12 entries to kick off the month, losing Yellow Peril. Hope all is better soon. Greenrobinhood gets 3 x 20 faults for not posting until nearly 1pm, aside from that all present and correct.

Wainbody, Coventry: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (priceofdawn) to 27% (Olympian95).
Penrith South, Eden: 9 Independent gain from Independent, alien8ted, priceofdawn and robertwaller Conservative gain.
St Andrews and Docklands, Kingston-upon-Hull: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 13% (Right Leaning) to 35% (andrewp).

Results spreadsheet available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xkE4Cc-59-Rhv9AcfyWOHKKs1Si-ROv_ItiwZ4LuKTA/edit?usp=sharing. Good luck all!

[Robert Waller]

Very well done to Alien8ted - another good start to the month!

[yellowperil]

Sept 7, 2019 5:42:09 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Thanks, though I think it was a case of being the least inaccurate. 🙂

👽

Well done, and that's the best we can ever hope for.

[johnloony]

RUSHMOOR
LD 64 Con 25 Lab 11

RUTLAND
Con 52 LD 31 Grn 17

SHROPSHIRE UA
LD 70 Con 19 Lab 11

SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE
Con 40 LD 33 Lab 17 Grn 10

WELLINGBOROUGH
Con 56 Lab 19 LD 15 Grn 8 Harper 2

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Here are some random numbers for your delectation.

Rushmoor
Conservative 46.4%
Liberal Democrats 46.2%
Labour 7.4%

Rutland
Conservative 59%
Liberal Democrats 29%
Green 12%

Shropshire
Liberal Democrats 69.9%
Conservative 24.7%
Labour 5.4%

South Northamptonshire
Liberal Democrats 42.6%
Conservative 42.1%
Labour 9.7%
Green 5.6%

Wellingborough
Conservative 56%
No Description 20%
Labour 12%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Green 3%

👽

[Deleted]

RUSHMOOR
LD 60 Con 30 Lab 10

RUTLAND
Con 45 LD 35 Grn 10

SHROPSHIRE UA
LD 65 Con 25 Lab 10

SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE
Con 35 LD 30 Lab 20 Grn 15

WELLINGBOROUGH
Con 56 Lab 19 LD 15 Grn 8 Harper 2

[Robert Waller]

Rushmoor
Conservative 38
Liberal Democrats 47
Labour 15

Rutland
Conservative 45
Liberal Democrats 40
Green 15

Shropshire
Liberal Democrats 75
Conservative 20
Labour 5

South Northamptonshire
Liberal Democrats 46
Conservative 36
Labour 12
Green 6

Wellingborough
Conservative 48
No Description 20
Labour 15
Liberal Democrats 12
Green 5