Prediction Competition - September 2019

[Tony Otim]

Rushmoor: Con 45.3; LD 42.7; Lab 12.0
Rutland: Con 47.2; LD 35.1; Grn 17.7
Shropshire: LD 70.4; Con 25.9; Lab 3.7
South Northants: LD 41.2; Con 39.5; Lab 14.1; Grn 5.2
Wellingborough: Con 58.3; LD 14.7; Harper 12.6; Lab 9.8; Grn 4.6

[greenhert]

Rushmoor BC, St Marks: Liberal Democrats 47, Conservative 36, Labour 17.
Rutland UA, Ryhall & Casterton: Conservative 50, Liberal Democrats 32, Green 18.
Shropshire UA, Bishop's Castle: Liberal Democrats 70, Conservative 25, Labour 5.
South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney: Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 38, Labour 15, Green 5.
Wellingborough BC, Finedon: Conservative 54, Independent (Harper) 15, Liberal Democrats 14, Labour 10, Green 7.

[andrewp]

Rushmoor, St Marks Lib Dem 49, Con 37, Lab 14
Rutland, Ryhall and Castleton Con 52: Lib Dem 35, Green 13
Shropshire, Bishops Castle Lib Dem 72, Con 22, Lab 6
South Northamptonshire, Middleton Cheney Lib Dem 43, Con 37, Lab 15, Green 5
Wellingborough, Finedon Harper 36, Con 35, Lab 15, Lib Dem 10, Green 4

[Davıd Boothroyd]

RUSHMOOR St Marks: L Dem 51, C 38, Lab 11
RUTLAND Ryhall and Casterton: C 47, L Dem 38, GP 15
SHROPSHIRE Bishop’s Castle: L Dem 66, C 28, Lab 6
SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Middleton Cheney: L Dem 52, C 35, Lab 10, GP 3
WELLINGBOROUGH Finedon: C 52, Lab 20, L Dem 15, ND 9, GP 4

[Toylyyev]

Rushmoor BC, St Marks: Liberal Democrat 47, Conservative 46.9, Labour 6.1.
Rutland UA, Ryhall & Casterton: Liberal Democrat 47.1, Conservative 47, Green 5.9.
Shropshire UA, Bishop’s Castle: Liberal Democrat 70, Conservative 26, Labour 4.
South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney: Liberal Democrat 43.1, Conservative 43, Labour 10.9, Green 3.
Wellingborough BC, Finedon: Conservative 48, Laurence Harper 26, Liberal Democrat 13, Labour 10, Green 3.

[iainbhx]

St Marks (Rushmoor): Con 44 LDm 41 Lab 15
Ryhall and Casterton (Rutland) : Con 56 LDm 32 Grn 12
Bishop's Castle:(Salop) : LDm 69 Con 23 Lab 8
Middleton Cheney (South Northamptonshire): LDm 46 Con 41 Lab 13
Finedon (Welligborough): Con 48 Lab 21 ND 19 LDm 8 Grn 4

[Toylyyev]

Sept 12, 2019 6:15:44 GMT iainbhx said:

St Marks (Rushmoor): Con 44 LDm 41 Lab 15
Ryhall and Casterton (Rutland) : Con 56 LDm 32 Grn 12
Bishop's Castle:(Salop) : LDm 69 Con 23 Lab 8
Middleton Cheney (South Northamptonshire): LDm 46 Con 41 Lab 13
Finedon (Welligborough): Con 48 Lab 21 ND 19 LDm 8 Grn 4

There seems to have been an oversight of the Green in Middleton Cheney?

[Right Leaning]

Rushmoor, St Marks: LD 54, C 36, Lab 10
Rutland, Ryhall and Castleton: C 54, LD 39, Gn 7
Shropshire, Bishops Castle: LD 69, C 24, Lab 7
South Northamptonshire, Middleton Cheney: LD 44, Con 39, Lab 13, Gn 4
Wellingborough, Finedon: Con 48, ND (Harper) 22, LD 14, Lab 12, Gn 4

[olympian95]

Rushmoor: LD 45, Con 40,Lab 15

Shropshire: LD 74, Con 19, Lab 7

Wellingborough: Con 44, Ind 38, Lab 10, LD 5, Green 3

South Northants: LD 49, Con 39, Lab 9, Green 3

Rutland: Con 48, LD 37, Green 15

[iainbhx]

Sept 12, 2019 6:37:02 GMT Toylyyev said:

Sept 12, 2019 6:15:44 GMT iainbhx said:

St Marks (Rushmoor): Con 44 LDm 41 Lab 15
Ryhall and Casterton (Rutland) : Con 56 LDm 32 Grn 12
Bishop's Castle:(Salop) : LDm 69 Con 23 Lab 8
Middleton Cheney (South Northamptonshire): LDm 46 Con 41 Lab 13
Finedon (Welligborough): Con 48 Lab 21 ND 19 LDm 8 Grn 4

There seems to have been an oversight of the Green in Middleton Cheney?

Oh well, too late to alter it now.

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, all present and correct. I have counted Iainbhx's Green prediction as 0 as amending it at this stage would incur quite a few faults!

St Marks, Rushmoor: 9 Liberal Democrat hold, with alien8ted, iainbhx and Tony Otim Conservative gain.
Ryhall and Casterton, Rutland: 11 Conservative gain from Independent, Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain.
Bishop's Castle, Shropshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majority ranging from 38% (David Boothroyd) to 55% (Right Leaning and robertwaller).
Middleton Cheney, South Northamptonshire: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with greenrobinhood, johnloony and priceofdawn Conservative hold.
Finedon, Wellingborough: 11 Conservative hold, andrewp No Description gain.

Results for a tough week at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19tb1XKQO7nBeobWRqDHjcXS29HEKX36ftmJcyKtrgdU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[andrewp]

Sept 12, 2019 17:34:37 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries this week, all present and correct. I have counted Iainbhx's Green prediction as 0 as amending it at this stage would incur quite a few faults!

St Marks, Rushmoor: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, with alien8ted, iainbhx and Tony Otim Conservative gain.
Ryhall and Casterton, Rutland: 12 Conservative gain from Independent, Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain.
Bishop's Castle, Shropshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majority ranging from 38% (David Boothroyd) to 55% (Right Leaning and robertwaller).
Middleton Cheney, South Northamptonshire: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with greenrobinhood, johnloony and priceofdawn Conservative hold.
Finedon, Wellingborough: 12 Conservative hold, andrewp No Description gain.

Results for a tough week at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19tb1XKQO7nBeobWRqDHjcXS29HEKX36ftmJcyKtrgdU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I may regret my punt on Finedon! 

Only 1 of those 5 looks a certainty.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 12, 2019 17:38:43 GMT andrewp said:

Sept 12, 2019 17:34:37 GMT robbienicoll said:

13 entries this week, all present and correct. I have counted Iainbhx's Green prediction as 0 as amending it at this stage would incur quite a few faults!

St Marks, Rushmoor: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, with alien8ted, iainbhx and Tony Otim Conservative gain.
Ryhall and Casterton, Rutland: 12 Conservative gain from Independent, Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain.
Bishop's Castle, Shropshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majority ranging from 38% (David Boothroyd) to 55% (Right Leaning and robertwaller).
Middleton Cheney, South Northamptonshire: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with greenrobinhood, johnloony and priceofdawn Conservative hold.
Finedon, Wellingborough: 12 Conservative hold, andrewp No Description gain.

Results for a tough week at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19tb1XKQO7nBeobWRqDHjcXS29HEKX36ftmJcyKtrgdU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I may regret my punt on Finedon! 

Only 1 of those 5 looks a certainty.

Or you may get to laugh at the rest of us or we may all end up looking silly when the Greens gain the seat in Rutland...

[yellowperil]

I think Robbie has miscounted the number of sheep in his flock, which I think actually was only 12, with corresponding corrections to the numbers of correct predictions on all the split wards, e.g. 9 correct not 10 in Rushmoor and South Northants, etc.Unless there's a phantom predictor not appearing on his spreadsheet. It wasn't me!

[robbienicoll]

Sept 13, 2019 6:25:18 GMT yellowperil said:

I think Robbie has miscounted the number of sheep in his flock, which I think actually was only 12, with corresponding corrections to the numbers of correct predictions on all the split wards, e.g. 9 correct not 10 in Rushmoor and South Northants, etc.Unless there's a phantom predictor not appearing on his spreadsheet. It wasn't me!

Now amended, got confused with last month! Results are now fully updated with Right Leaning taking the week - Rushmoor in particular being a standout result. Alien8ted and robertwaller round out the podium with a combination of those three also making up the monthly podium so far, with alien8ted in the lead, RL in second and Robert in third. Plenty still to play for with another couple of tricky weeks ahead.

[Toylyyev]

Sept 13, 2019 6:25:18 GMT yellowperil said:

I think Robbie has miscounted the number of sheep in his flock, which I think actually was only 12, with corresponding corrections to the numbers of correct predictions on all the split wards, e.g. 9 correct not 10 in Rushmoor and South Northants, etc.Unless there's a phantom predictor not appearing on his spreadsheet. It wasn't me!

One of these weeks where my original notes from last weekend would have been an improvement of 23.7% over the final take.

Meh.

[Tony Otim]

Canterbury: Con 52.9, LD 17.0, Grn 14.4, Lab 10.0, Egerton 5.7

Hammersmith & Fulham: Lab 51.8, Con 34.7, LD 13.5

Liverpool: Lab 67.3, LD 10.2, Grn 8.8, Lib 6.7, Con 4.5, OSAC 2.5

N.Lanarks: SNP 43.0, Lab 39.3, Con 9.3, LD 5.9, Grn 2.5 (SNP to edge it in final round).

Somerset W & Taunton: LD 43.2, Con 24.6, Rudram 13.4, Grn 10.9, Lab 8.0

Wiltshire: Con 55.1, LD 44.9

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Canterbury
Conservative 51.1%
Liberal Democrats 19.5%
Green 17%
Labour 11.1%.
Independent 1.3%

Hammersmith and Fulham
Labour 44.3%
Conservative 41.1%
Liberal Democrats 14.6%

Liverpool
Labour 72.3%
Green 7.8%
Liberal Democrats 6.9%
Liberal 5.2%
Conservative 5%
EA - OSAC 2.8%

North Lanarkshire
SNP 44.8%
Labour 34%
Conservative 14.1%
Liberal Democrats 4%
Green 2.1%
SNP win

Somerset West and Taunton
Conservative 29.9%
Liberal Democrats 28.2%
Independent 26%
Labour 9.9%
Green 6%

Wiltshire
Conservative 61.7%
Liberal Democrats 38.3%

👽

[greenhert]

Canterbury DC, Chestfield: Conservative 48, Liberal Democrats 27, Labour 15, Green 8, Independent (Egerton) 2.
Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Fulham Broadway: Labour 45, Conservative 35, Liberal Democrats 20.
Liverpool MBC, Old Swan: Labour 63, Liberal Democrats 13, Green 10, Liberal 6, Conservative 4, Old Swan Against the Cuts 4.
North Lanarkshire UA, Thornewood (1st preferences): SNP 46, Labour 36, Conservative 10, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3. SNP gain from Labour.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Vivary: Liberal Democrats 36, Conservative 31, Independent (Rudram) 18, Labour 8, Green 7. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Wiltshire UA, Ethandune: Conservative 57, Liberal Democrats 43.

[Deleted]

Canterbury: Con 45, LD 25, Grn 10, Lab 15, Egerton 5

Hammersmith & Fulham: Lab 45, Con 40, LD 15

Liverpool: Lab 55, LD 15, Grn 10, Lib 5, Con 10, OSAC 5

N.Lanarks: SNP 45, Lab 35, Con 10, LD 5, Grn 5 (Labour hold).

Somerset W & Taunton: LD 45, Con 30, Rudram 15, Grn 5, Lab 5

Wiltshire: Con 60, LD 40