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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 18, 2019 19:37:36 GMT
Canterbury
Conservative 40
Liberal Democrats 35
Green 12
Labour 10
Independent 3
Hammersmith and Fulham
Labour 46
Conservative 34
Liberal Democrats 20
Liverpool
Labour 68
Green 13
Liberal Democrats 8
Liberal 6
Conservative 3
EA - OSAC 2
North Lanarkshire
SNP 43
Labour 36
Conservative 9
Liberal Democrats 6
Green 6
SNP to win
Somerset West and Taunton
Conservative 26
Liberal Democrats 44
Independent 10
Labour 10
Green 10
Wiltshire
Conservative 55
Liberal Democrats 45
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Post by johnloony on Sept 18, 2019 22:59:43 GMT
Canterbury
Con 48 LD 29 Lab 10 Grn 8 Ind 5
Hammersmith & Fulham
Lab 44 Con 33 LD 23
Liverpool
Lab 50 LD 31 Grn 8 Lib 6 OSAC 3 Con 2
North Lanark
Lab 43 SNP 41 LD 9 Con 4 Grn 3
Somerset W & T
LD 54 Con 25 Lab 12 Grn 6 Ind 3
Wiltshire
Con 60 LD 40
I worked out my own predictions, but then I thought that it would be more accurate to average the other predictions instead, but then I decided it would be more fun to do my own predictions anyway. So if the average of the other five predictions so far turns out to be more accurate than mine, I reserve the right to moan and complain afterwards.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 18, 2019 23:26:22 GMT
Canterbury Chestfield Con 37, Lib Dem 35, Lab 14, Green 7, Ind 7
Hammersmith and Fulham, Fulham Broadway Lab 49, Con 30, Lib Dem 21
Liverpool, Old Swan Lab 69, Green 9, Lib 8, LD 8, Con 3, End Austerity 3
North Lanarkshire, thorniewood SNP 43, Lab 38, Con 10, LD 5, Green 4. SNP to win on transfers
Somerset West and Taunton, Vivary Lib Dem 40, Con 30, Lab 11, Ind 12, Green 7
Wiltshire, Ethandune Con 59, Lib Dem 41
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 18, 2019 23:33:37 GMT
CANTERBURY Chestfield: C 43, L Dem 36, Lab 10, GP 6, Ind 5
HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM Fulham Broadway: Lab 38, L Dem 31, C 31
LIVERPOOL Old Swan: Lab 56, L Dem 18, GP 14, L 5, C 4, OSAC 3
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Thorniewood: SNP 49, Lab 35, C 10, SGP 4, L Dem 2. SNP win.
SOMERSET WEST AND TAUNTON Vivary: L Dem 45, C 29, Ind 12, Lab 9, GP 5
WILTSHIRE Ethandune: C 56, L Dem 44
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 19, 2019 2:40:18 GMT
Canterbury BC, Chestfield: Conservative 47, Liberal Democrat 23, Green 17, Labour 10, Independent 3.
Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Fulham Broadway: Labour 37, Liberal Democrat 33, Conservative 30.
Liverpool MBC, Old Swan: Labour 45, Liberal Democrats 24, Green 19, Liberal Party 6, Conservative 3, End Austerity – Old Swan Against Cuts 3.
North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood: SNP 41.5, Labour 36, Liberal Democrat 11, Conservative 8.5, Green 3. SNP win.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Vivary: Liberal Democrat 42, Conservative 27, Green 15, Independent 9, Labour 7.
Wiltshire UA, Ethandune: Conservative 56, Liberal Democrat 44.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 19, 2019 6:24:20 GMT
Chestfield (Canterbury DC): Con 47 LDm 26 Lab 16 Grn 8 Ind 3
Fulham Broadway (Hammersmith & Fuham LBC): Lab 46 Con 32 LDm 22
Old Swan (Liverpool MBC): Lab 61 LDm 15 Grn 10 Lib 7 Con 6 OSAC 1
Thorniewood (North Lanarkshire SUA): SNP 41 Lab 39 Con 11 LDm 6 Grn 3 LAB TO WIN
Vivary (Somerset West & Taunton DC): LDm 43 Con 31 Ind 15 Lab 7 Grn 4
Ethandune (WIltshire UA): Con 58 LDm 42
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Post by Right Leaning on Sept 19, 2019 6:34:26 GMT
Canterbury Chestfield: C 45, LD 35, Lab 11, Gn 5, Ind 4
Hammersmith and Fulham, Fulham Broadway: Lab 42, LD 32, C 26
Liverpool, Old Swan: Lab 64, LD 21, C 5, Gn 5, End Austerity 3, Lib 2,
North Lanarkshire, Thorniewood: SNP 42, Lab 36, C 12, LD 6, Gn 4. SNP to win on transfers
Somerset West and Taunton, Vivary: LD 42, C 34, Lab 10, Ind 9, Gn 5
Wiltshire, Ethandune: C 59, Lib Dem 41
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Post by olympian95 on Sept 19, 2019 6:49:03 GMT
Canterbury: Con 45, LD 28, Lab 15, Green 8, Ind 4
Fulham: Lab 39, Con 32, LD 29
Liverpool: Lab 53, LD 24, Green 9, Liberal 6, Con 5, EA 3
North Lanarkshire: SNP 46, Lab 35, Con 11, LD 5, Green 3 -
SNP to win
Wiltshire: Con 56, LD 44
West Somerset: LD 46, Con 35, Ind 10, Lab 7, Green 2
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 19, 2019 7:37:44 GMT
Chestfield (Canterbury DC): Con 47 LDm 26 Lab 16 Grn 8 Ind 3 Fulham Broadway (Hammersmith & Fuham LBC): Lab 46 Con 32 LDm 22 Old Swan (Liverpool MBC): Lab 61 LDm 15 Grn 10 Lib 7 Con 6 OSAC 1 Thorniewood (North Lanarkshire SUA): SNP 41 Lab 39 Con 11 LDm 6 Grn 3 LAB TO WINVivary (Somerset West & Taunton DC): LDm 43 Con 31 Ind 15 Lab 7 Grn 4 Ethandune (WIltshire UA): Con 58 LDm 42 SNP lead yet Labour to win? Where on earth do you see the transfers coming from....to Labour? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2019 7:41:56 GMT
People not backing the SNP
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 19, 2019 8:19:51 GMT
Chestfield (Canterbury DC): Con 47 LDm 26 Lab 16 Grn 8 Ind 3 Fulham Broadway (Hammersmith & Fuham LBC): Lab 46 Con 32 LDm 22 Old Swan (Liverpool MBC): Lab 61 LDm 15 Grn 10 Lib 7 Con 6 OSAC 1 Thorniewood (North Lanarkshire SUA): SNP 41 Lab 39 Con 11 LDm 6 Grn 3 LAB TO WINVivary (Somerset West & Taunton DC): LDm 43 Con 31 Ind 15 Lab 7 Grn 4 Ethandune (WIltshire UA): Con 58 LDm 42 SNP lead yet Labour to win? Where on earth do you see the transfers coming from....to Labour? On Iain's prediction I would say that a Labour win is the most likely outcome as LD and Con vote will break more for them than for the SNP. However with SNP and Labour having c.80% between them, I'd guess that the maximum Labour could overhaul would be a 3-4% lead - the number of votes that wouldn't transfer at all would stop them winning with any larger deficit, so predicting a 10% SNP lead and a Labour victory looks a bit self-contradictory IMO. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 19, 2019 10:11:27 GMT
SNP lead yet Labour to win? Where on earth do you see the transfers coming from....to Labour? On Iain's prediction I would say that a Labour win is the most likely outcome as LD and Con vote will break more for them than for the SNP. However with SNP and Labour having c.80% between them, I'd guess that the maximum Labour could overhaul would be a 3-4% lead - the number of votes that wouldn't transfer at all would stop them winning with any larger deficit, so predicting a 10% SNP lead and a Labour victory looks a bit self-contradictory IMO. It took a bit of digging to find a precedent from the 2017 locals. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Fife_Council_election#Dunfermline_North (count 4) Edit: Another nugget: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Fife_Council_election#Buckhaven,_Methil_and_Wemyss_Villages (count 7) |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 19, 2019 13:34:49 GMT
Canterbury Con 48 LD 29 Lab 10 Grn 8 Ind 5 Hammersmith & Fulham Lab 44 Con 33 LD 23 Liverpool Lab 50 LD 31 Grn 8 Lib 6 OSAC 3 Con 2 North Lanark Lab 43 SNP 41 LD 9 Con 4 Grn 3 P.S. Edit - I forgot to add that I predict Labour win (but hopefully that was clear from the numbers) Somerset W & T LD 54 Con 25 Lab 12 Grn 6 Ind 3 Wiltshire Con 60 LD 40 I worked out my own predictions, but then I thought that it would be more accurate to average the other predictions instead, but then I decided it would be more fun to do my own predictions anyway. So if the average of the other five predictions so far turns out to be more accurate than mine, I reserve the right to moan and complain afterwards. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 19, 2019 18:07:15 GMT
12 entries this week. Alien8ted receives 1 fault for only adding to 99% in Thorniewood whilst Tony Otim gets 0.1 for getting to 100.1% in Vivary. johnloony if there's no winner given for Scottish contests I assume the leading party is the predicted winner overall, so yes you're all good there. Chestfield, Canterbury: 100% Con hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (andrewp) to 35.9% (Tony Otim). Fulham Broadway, Hammersmith and Fulham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from alien8ted (3.2%) to andrewp (19%). Old Swan, Liverpool: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 19% (johnloony over LD) to 64.5% (alien8ted over Green). Thorniewood, North Lanarkshire: 9 SNP gain from Labour on transfers, with iainbhx, johnloony and priceofdawn Labour hold. Vivary, West Somerset and Taunton: 11 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, alien8ted Conservative hold. Ethandune, Wiltshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (robertwaller) to 23.4% (alien8ted). Full results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HukdLoJlfIQLPTiJ93jfpcjL8p5qqhVaLYbCIyKWAKA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 19, 2019 22:53:32 GMT
Anyone keeping an eye on the results will have noticed a particularly significant one in Wiltshire! Has there been a 0 fault prediction before?
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 20, 2019 6:51:13 GMT
Wasn't me. Not a good week. 👽 Never mind ,if you do this regularly sooner or later we all get a week like that where nothing quite works. Now you've got that out of the way..... |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 20, 2019 11:13:35 GMT
2 individual contest wins for Right Leaning and Priceofdawn each, with iainbhx and greenrobinhood taking one apiece. Incidentally greenrobinhood's win in Ethandune was the one referred to upthread as having received no faults, first time I've seen that!
Iainbhx just squeaks the weekly win on 103.2 faults, ahead of David Boothroyd on 106.3 and Right Leaning on 109.7. For the month this has Right Leaning lead on 272.2, with olympian95 on 292.6 and robertwaller on 308.3 completing the podium. Still all to play for next week with five contests, including a few knife-edge marginals.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 25, 2019 11:02:09 GMT
Crawley: Con 39.9, Lab 33.5, LD 13.4, Grn 9.8, JP 3.4
Ipswich: Lab 48.2, Con 20.9, Grn 16.5, LD 14.4
Luton: Lab 40.1, Con 38.9, LD 18.0, Grn 3.0
Rochford: LD 46.2, Con 45.2, Grn 8.6
West Sussex: Con 46.9, Lab 35.4, LD 9.9, Grn 5.1, JP 2.7
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 25, 2019 17:48:39 GMT
Crawley
Conservative 40%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 15%
Green 10%
Justice Party 2%
Ipswich
Labour 45.4%
Conservative 24.4%
Liberal Democrats 16.1%
Green 14.1%
Luton
Conservative 40.2%
Labour 38.3%
Liberal Democrats 17.5%
Green 4%
Rochford
Liberal Democrats 47.2%
Conservative 46.4%
Green 6.4%
West Sussex
Conservative 40.4%
Labour 37.2%
Liberal Democrats 16.3%
Green 4.1%
Justice Party 2%
👽
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2019 20:37:39 GMT
Crawley: Con 45, Lab 30, LD 15, Grn 5, JP 5
Ipswich: Lab 40, Con 30, Grn 10, LD 20
Luton: Lab 40, Con 35, LD 20, Grn 5
Rochford: LD 50, Con 40, Grn 10
West Sussex: Con 40, Lab 30, LD 15, Grn 10, JP 5
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