Prediction Competition - September 2019

[greenhert]

Crawley BC, Tilgate: Conservative 40, Labour 34, Liberal Democrats 17, Green 7, Justice Party 2.
Ipswich BC, Alexandra: Labour 45, Conservative 28, Green 15, Liberal Democrats 12.
Luton UA, Icknield: Labour 41, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 16, Green 5. Labour gain from Conservative.
Rochford DC, Sweyne Park & Grange: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 43, Green 9.
West Sussex CC, Three Bridges: Labour 40, Conservative 36, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 7, Justice Party 3. Labour gain from Conservative.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CRAWLEY Tilgate: C 44, Lab 37, GP 10, L Dem 7, JP 2
IPSWICH Alexandra: Lab 50, GP 22, C 18, L Dem 10
LUTON Icknield: C 47, Lab 34, L Dem 13, GP 6
ROCHFORD Sweyne Park and Grange: L Dem 53, C 36, GP 11
WEST SUSSEX Three Bridges: C 45, Lab 40, L Dem 6, GP 5, JP 2

[Robert Waller]

CRAWLEY Tilgate: C 40, Lab 39, GP 4, L Dem 15, JP 2
IPSWICH Alexandra: Lab 48, GP 20, C 17, L Dem 15
LUTON Icknield: C 38, Lab 40, L Dem 18, GP 4
ROCHFORD Sweyne Park and Grange: L Dem 46, C 44, GP 10
WEST SUSSEX Three Bridges: C 43, Lab 36, L Dem 15, GP 4, JP 2

[Toylyyev]

Crawley BC, Tilgate: Conservative 40, Labour 36, Liberal Democrat 17.5, Green 5.5, Justice Party 1.

Ipswich BC, Alexandra: Conservative 19, Labour 47, Liberal Democrats 20, Green 14.

Luton UA, Icknield: Conservative 43.5, Labour 37, Liberal Democrat 17, Green 2.5.

Rochford DC, Sweyne Park & Grange: Conservative 44, Liberal Democrats 52, Green 4.

West Sussex CC, Three Bridges: Conservative 42, Labour 34, Liberal Democrat 16, Green 7, Justice Party 1.

[Right Leaning]

Crawley BC, Tilgate: C 41, Lab 34, LD 19, Gn 5, Justice Party 1.
Ipswich BC, Alexandra: Lab 42, C 30, LD 19, Gn 9.
Luton UA, Icknield: Lab 41, C 39, LD 15, Gn 5.
Rochford DC, Sweyne Park & Grange: LD 46, C 44, Gn 10.
West Sussex CC, Three Bridges: C 42, Lab 40, LD 11, Gn 6, Justice Party 1.

[andrewp]

Crawley, Tilgate. Con 41, Lab 40, Lib Dem 9 Green 9, Justice 1
Ipswich, Alexandra, Lab 50, Green 18, Con 17, Lib Dem 15
Luton, Icknield Lab 41, Con 38, Lib Dem 16, Green 5
Rochford, Sweyne Park and Grange.. Lib Dem 46, Con 44, Green 10
Weat Sussex, Three Bridges. Con 45, Lab 40, Lib Dem 8, Green 6, Justice 1

[olympian95]

Crawley: Con 42, Lab 38, LD 13, Green 6, Justice 1

Ipswich: Lab 43, Con 22, Green 20, LD 15

Luton: Lab 42, Con 39, LD 15, Green 4

Rochford: LD 51, Con 45, Green 4

West Sussex CC: Con 40, Lab 35, LD 15, Green 8, Justice 2

[iainbhx]

Balls, completely missed this weeks deadline due to having too much work on.

Very quickly

Tilgate (Crawley): Con 44 Lab 42 Grn 8 LDm 5.5 Justice 0.5
Alexandra (Ipswich): Lab 45 Con 25 LDm 20 Grn 10
Icknield (Luton): Lab 39 Con 36 LDm 20 Grn 5
Sweyne Park and Grange (Rochford) LDm 47 Con 46 Grn 7
Three Bridges (West Sussex): Con 44 Lab 41 LDm 8 Grn 6.5 Justice 0.5

[robbienicoll]

11 entries this week, losing johnloony. Iainbhx gets 5x40 faults for posting at 1pm whilst David Boothroyd gets 2 for only adding to 98 in Three Bridges.

Tilgate, Crawley: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (andrewp) to 15% (priceofdawn).
Alexandra, Ipswich: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (priceofdawn) to 33% (andrewp).
Icknield, Luton: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with alien8ted, David Boothroyd and Toylyyev Conservative hold.
Sweyne Park and Grange, Rochford: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Rochford District Residents, with majorities from 0.8% (alien8ted) to 17% (David Boothroyd). All predictions have Conservatives in second.
Three Bridges, West Sussex: 10 Conservative hold, with greenrobinhood Labour gain.

I'm up at the crack of dawn to get to a conference in Manchester tomorrow so results won't be posted until the early hours. Hopefully one of the counts is running over!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v2QanZ3VSmUZ-jJdaNciZrzLbfVTVqMm8pBsUPD7aHY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

Oops! I forgot. Too busy with my sister & family visiting. Anyway, here is my prediction:

Crawley: Con 42 Lab 34 LD 13 Green 8 JP 3
Ipswich: Lab 46 Con 24 LD 13 Green 15
Luton: Lab 40 Con 39 LD 17 Green 4
Rochford: LD 49 Con 43 Green 8
West Sussex: Con 42 Lab 36 LD 13 Green 6 JP 3

In other words, it's what my prediction would have been if I had remembered in time (i.e. approximately the average of the first five predictions in the thread, without any reference to other predictions or facts or results). I don't know how many penalty points I qualify for?

[Tony Otim]

Congratulation to Right leaning for the month.

[Toylyyev]

The Green candidate in Tilgate is displayed with 70 votes on the council site, not 75, and accordingly valid votes amount to 1294, not 1299.

democracy.crawley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=44&RPID=1808407


Edit: The 'Declaration of Results' itself isn't on the site yet, but should show up at democracy.crawley.gov.uk/mgGeneric.aspx?MD=cbcElections&bcr=1.

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to Tony for the (quite challenging) week and to Right Leaning for the month. If all goes well I hope to be back for October having taken the month off in Septemberfor medical reasons. If I can face 7 elections for the first Thursday of the new month, that is.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 27, 2019 8:33:10 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to Tony for the (quite challenging) week and to Right Leaning for the month. If all goes well I hope to be back for October having taken the month off in Septemberfor medical reasons. If I can face 7 elections for the first Thursday of the new month, that is.

Would be great to have you back - and it's really only 6 next week as 2 will be covered by the same prediction...

[andrewp]

Sept 27, 2019 8:33:10 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to Tony for the (quite challenging) week and to Right Leaning for the month. If all goes well I hope to be back for October having taken the month off in Septemberfor medical reasons. If I can face 7 elections for the first Thursday of the new month, that is.

It would be good to see you back. There are some corkers next week too! 

[johnloony]

3rd October: I predict

Aberdeen, Bridge of Don
First preferences:
Red Party 100%, Ind 0%, SNP 0%, Lab 0%, Con 0%, LD 0%, Green 0%, UKIP 0%
Elected: Red Party (1st round), Independent (2nd round (From Red's surplus))

I can't be bothered to predict the others