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Post by middleenglander on Aug 30, 2019 21:04:02 GMT
I have been interested in election statistics for some 60 years, tentatively starting with the Tiverton by-election in 1958 and later Orpington in 1962. However, in the last few weeks my attentiveness has been on the wane.
Last night I decided to watch a TV repeat at 10 pm rather than prepare the templates for yesterday's local council by-election results. I did drag myself to the computer at approaching 11.30 to find an interesting result in Bury where Labour had lost the Radcliffe West ward for the first time since at least 2004 when the present seat was created. Indeed the party had polled a share of over 60% less than 16 months ago. However this was not sufficient to stir me to post anything last night. This morning my torpor was even more pronounced.
So why is this. I have become increasingly disillusioned with many politicians, especially this year. I consider the last thing many of these are "honourable" with many worse than lying sh1ts. I would not trust them to empty our wheelie-bins, physically that is and not to manage refuse collection. At one stage in my business career I was on first name terms with most of the MPs of all parties across the wider West Midlands. Today I would be ashamed to admit I was on good terms with more than a tiny proportion.
I am indebted to Professor Vernon Bognador for highlighting a Winston Chuchill condemnatory quote about Parliaments in the 1930's in which they: * decided only to be undecided * resolved to be irresolute * adamant for drift * solid for fluidity and * all-powerful to be impotent We all know how the 1930's ended. But I believe the outcome from today's activities could in some ways be even worse.
For my own part I have migrated from a supporter of the Common Market, "we have got to get in to get on" in 1972, to now being highly sceptical of the EU. This occurred initially from a detailed understanding of the implications of a number of Directives, through an analysis of their subsequent strategic impact along with an observation of the wider outcomes where there was an increasing dissonance between what most politicians said and the real world I was battling to keep the business afloat. In words once used by William Hague on the Dinner Circuit: "You can tell when they are lying their lips move." I came to see the EU as both corrupt and corrupting.
My wife and I will be away on holiday for much of September. I intend to take a break from local council elections for the month and see how I feel during October. However, it maybe that my sabbatical will become permanent.
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Post by AdminSTB on Aug 30, 2019 21:41:16 GMT
middleenglander, I am sure I speak on behalf of the entire forum when I say your contribution here over the years has been immeasurable, and we thank you for it. Your departure would be a huge loss. I for one can empathise with your disillusionment, given my own extended break from the forum a couple of years ago and my more recent detachment from supporting any one political party with any great enthusiasm. Please let us know what you decide, but my hope is that you have a great holiday and that you will feel able to return. Number crunching is great fun, regardless of the merits - or lack thereof - of the politicians and parties we crunch numbers about.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Aug 30, 2019 21:44:46 GMT
I certainly understand where you are coming from as well. For my part, I have started to see politics as little more than a sport where teams aim to score points off each other. Interesting to watch, but it rarely accomplishes anything in the real world. There are too many seat warmers, to many people just doing what they are told, and too many people who just want to hold office but don't really have strong views. Few politicians have any real ability to govern. The events of the last few months have essentially convinced me that representative democracy doesn't work, and the entertainment provided by elections is probably its only merit.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 30, 2019 21:48:55 GMT
There are times I think the same as well, and if the number of local independents elected in the locals this year is any indication it is a view that large numbers of voters hold as well.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 30, 2019 21:58:18 GMT
There are times I think the same as well, and if the number of local independents elected in the locals this year is any indication it is a view that large numbers of voters hold as well. It is, especially in poorer ex-industrial towns in the outer reaches of major conurbations (especially Greater Manchester) or once major industrial towns in their own right (e.g. Mansfield).
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 31, 2019 1:56:32 GMT
I have some sympathy with middleenglander on this, but from a rather different perspective. Even as an elected politician myself, albeit a local councillor, I had always held the vast majority of MPs of all parties at a level of respect and certainly that they were somehow 'better' politicians than local ones due to the fact that they had made it into parliament and appeared to have gravitas (and to be honest, I think just as a state of natural deference). This certainly isn't to say that you couldn't pick out the useless and clueless amongst them but they did appear to be the vast minority. But post the Brexit referendum it started to become clear that, with our new Prime Minister as the head among them, the extremely significant flaws of most MPs became apparent. The simplistic approach to almost every topic, the utter, utter cluelessness about any real detail about government law and policies on people's lives and the complete revelation that I could think of local politicians from all parties through my experiences and connections who could not only do a better job running things but who have a far greater understanding of the affects of policy on people which is the most distressing disconnect. I'm in no way saying local politicians are perfect, indeed there's buckets of dross as well but the bottom line is that MPs are nothing special and are often far worse because so often the position is the reward in itself rather than any actual political talent, vision or competence. So in my roundabout way middleenglander your work on local by-elections is really valued and as your disallusionment appears to be very much driven by MPs I hope you will regard the local political scene as different and will feel you can carry on with your contribution on this site.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 31, 2019 7:55:50 GMT
I have some sympathy with middleenglander on this, but from a rather different perspective. Even as an elected politician myself, albeit a local councillor, I had always held the vast majority of MPs of all parties at a level of respect and certainly that they were somehow 'better' politicians than local ones due to the fact that they had made it into parliament and appeared to have gravitas (and to be honest, I think just as a state of natural deference). This certainly isn't to say that you couldn't pick out the useless and clueless amongst them but they did appear to be the vast minority. But post the Brexit referendum it started to become clear that, with our new Prime Minister as the head among them, the extremely significant flaws of most MPs became apparent. The simplistic approach to almost every topic, the utter, utter cluelessness about any real detail about government law and policies on people's lives and the complete revelation that I could think of local politicians from all parties through my experiences and connections who could not only do a better job running things but who have a far greater understanding of the affects of policy on people which is the most distressing disconnect. I'm in no way saying local politicians are perfect, indeed there's buckets of dross as well but the bottom line is that MPs are nothing special and are often far worse because so often the position is the reward in itself rather than any actual political talent, vision or competence. So in my roundabout way middleenglander your work on local by-elections is really valued and as your disallusionment appears to be very much driven by MPs I hope you will regard the local political scene as different and will feel you can carry on with your contribution on this site. I can't find significant reasons for the personality flaws of the incriminated to be the source, and would expect competent psychological investigation to confirm that take. What i am looking at from a distance is the human biology dynamics of feudally oriented assembly. And thats about as much as i am prepared to share in a public place, giving way to hopefully authoritative psychological assessment.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 31, 2019 8:18:55 GMT
I understand where middleenglander, Defenestrated Fipplebox, et al are coming from and we can all share frustration at the present political impasse, even from very different political perspectives. But I still have a great admiration for many members of parliament individually, and I think that feeling is widespread. There are many of us who will damn politicians in general, and maybe with justification in relation to particular loons, but still exclude their own MP or one they know well from the general condemnation. I think the general condemnation of the political class in general is healthy in moderation but very dangerous if taken to excess. It reminds me, say, of the last days of the Weimar Republic, and we know where that led. I also think the great majority of local councillors are worthy and honourable people, though we always need to be alert to the ones who are anything but, as well as those who are just feeble and incompetent. Keeping in touch with this forum is very good for retaining a wide perspective on current politics and it would be a great shame if it got bogged down in disillusionment and ennui. We need people who still believe enthusiastically in something, whatever it is, and we still have a very wide range of committed belief from some, from right and left - I would emphatically disagree with them, probably, but I want them there to disagree with. I can enjoy politics on this forum on multiple levels- there are opportunities for serious and fundamental discussion on matters of principle, for nitpicking over abstruse detail, and for just playing the team games which is a more frivolous but still fun aspect of politics- we need all of those. We desperately need to keep on board the people here who make the whole thing work, and middleenglander is certainly one of the most important of those.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2019 8:52:46 GMT
I quite understand why the continued deadlock in Parliament is reinforcing negative perceptions of MPs. However as Yellowperil says, this perception does have some big dangers. I was actually very cross at the way so msny MPs were hounded over expenses, when in the vast majority of cases they were merely following rules that had been set for them. MPs are not superhuman, and in my experience are mostly honourable people who want to change things for the better according to their world view. They do their best to help their constituents regardless of political persuasion in most cases. I have been represented by quite a few MPs, both Labour and Tory, and have no complaints about my interactions with them. On Brexit, MPs have a difficult task, since the result was so close, the destinationunclear, and the country is still so divided. Whatever they do at least 30% of people think they are doing something terrible. I do think the adversarial Party system is part of the problem. MPs are expected to be loyal to their Party above all. "My Party right or wrong" is just as bad as "my country right or wrong". In my opinion both are indefensible morally.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 31, 2019 10:02:43 GMT
Somebody else can run the prediction competition (and indeed has been doing so very well recently) but IMO the really indispensable contributions of middleenglander were their result summaries and lists of forthcoming council byelections. If they are no longer going to do those, it will be a big miss. (and I understand both their frustration with current events, and that they have been doing this for a while now and may simply want a break)
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Aug 31, 2019 10:23:24 GMT
Relevant to this thread, I see at Channel 5 at 9pm on Monday- Paxman, Why our Politicians are so c***
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 31, 2019 10:52:06 GMT
Relevant to this thread, I see at Channel 5 at 9pm on Monday- Paxman, Why our Politicians are so c*** All such diatribes tend to founder on their failure to understand that malgovernance isn't down to any personal failure in judgment or ability by people occupying political office. Practically all of the 'politician-y' things that the public so object to (evasive answers, trying to please too many people, etc) are the product of sociological and psychological factors that are common in society. You can no more denounce those who happen currently to be in political office for these things than you can denounce them for breathing in Oxygen. I see in particular no sign that Jeremy Paxman has thought in any great detail about this subject. Isabel Hardman looked at it from another angle recently and did actually make some progress.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 31, 2019 11:03:17 GMT
I think that there are brief eras that contain rather good sections of MPs Eras when there are very few good sections of MPs Most of the time most of them are poor average and nothing special It it only ever seen to be good in hindsight The perception varies according to mood of the perceivers Much of the time it doesn't matter as not much happens.
In the 90s and 00s the right were despondent and taking on a bit about it all. We were moaning, resigning and flirting with Referendum and UKIP and other matters. Party drifted centre left wet, then cenre left dry. We were forming threads like this.
Now we have seen a period of Conservative ascendency, Referendum win, Trump, BP and Johnson. We have suvived Major, Cameron and May and come out into a Johnson sunshine. Leaving soon on No Deal looks likely. Steaming the dross out of our party looks very likely. A move to centre right has happened.
All of the above paragraph must be dispiriting for those who are centrists and Remainers and thus their mood causes this thread. The MPs are as good, indifferent and bad as they have always been. It is the plethora of big events and big decisions that show them up to be indecisive, pig-ignorant plonkers. They always were but you never had cause to notice!
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 31, 2019 11:06:10 GMT
Somebody else can run the prediction competition (and indeed has been doing so very well recently) but IMO the really indispensable contributions of middleenglander were their result summaries and lists of forthcoming council byelections. If they are no longer going to do those, it will be a big miss. (and I understand both their frustration with current events, and that they have been doing this for a while now and may simply want a break) andrewp has taken on maintaining the lists of forthcoming by-elections, at least for the time being.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 31, 2019 11:07:03 GMT
I see in particular no sign that Jeremy Paxman has thought in any great detail about this any subject. FTFY
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 31, 2019 11:09:05 GMT
Relevant to this thread, I see at Channel 5 at 9pm on Monday- Paxman, Why our Politicians are so c*** All such diatribes tend to founder on their failure to understand that malgovernance isn't down to any personal failure in judgment or ability by people occupying political office. Practically all of the 'politician-y' things that the public so object to (evasive answers, trying to please too many people, etc) are the product of sociological and psychological factors that are common in society. You can no more denounce those who happen currently to be in political office for these things than you can denounce them for breathing in Oxygen. I see in particular no sign that Jeremy Paxman has thought in any great detail about this subject. Isabel Hardman looked at it from another angle recently and did actually make some progress. I think that's very fair. The average elector does, unsurprisingly, want to be agreed with, and takes it badly when a politician doesn't do so. As a result, politicians have to behave in a particular way. There are some brilliant examples of politicians telling the electorate to sod off though. John Crosbie's infamous "I didn't take the fish out of the goddamn water" diatribe was hilarious and only a bruiser like him could get away with it.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2019 11:13:03 GMT
It's all very well to blame it on the party system. But if we look elsewhere having weaker parties doesn't necessarily improve matters. Parties in France and Italy change names and boundaries almost between elections. Has that improved them? The catch-all party isn't much to write home about - Fuanna Fail, the Peronists... Then there is the US system where the parties hardly exist as separate entities from being electoral machines. And in recent years they have become more like our parties in terms of clearly oposing beliefs. There are few east coast fiscal republicans or Blue Dog Democrats left. If we didn't have our current parties, we would have others instead and I don't see why they would be any better?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2019 11:28:53 GMT
All such diatribes tend to founder on their failure to understand that malgovernance isn't down to any personal failure in judgment or ability by people occupying political office. Practically all of the 'politician-y' things that the public so object to (evasive answers, trying to please too many people, etc) are the product of sociological and psychological factors that are common in society. You can no more denounce those who happen currently to be in political office for these things than you can denounce them for breathing in Oxygen. I see in particular no sign that Jeremy Paxman has thought in any great detail about this subject. Isabel Hardman looked at it from another angle recently and did actually make some progress. I think that's very fair. The average elector does, unsurprisingly, want to be agreed with, and takes it badly when a politician doesn't do so. As a result, politicians have to behave in a particular way. There are some brilliant examples of politicians telling the electorate to sod off though. John Crosbie's infamous "I didn't take the fish out of the goddamn water" diatribe was hilarious and only a bruiser like him could get away with it. Paul Goodman said he felt liberated when he announced he was stepping down as MP for Aylesbury *. When stupid or obnoxious people came to his surgeries for the remainder of his term he let them have it with both barrels. *Actually, as has been pointed out, Wycombe.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Aug 31, 2019 11:35:15 GMT
The problem is that the public want it all the happen quickly and cheaply with no impact on themselves (for what ever value it is). When a politician says it will take years and cost a lot, they get voted down. In short the public seem (and this is a horrid generalisation) want to be lied to, but convincingly. They can then blame "those bastards" when it doesn't turn out that way.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2019 11:50:34 GMT
I think that's very fair. The average elector does, unsurprisingly, want to be agreed with, and takes it badly when a politician doesn't do so. As a result, politicians have to behave in a particular way. There are some brilliant examples of politicians telling the electorate to sod off though. John Crosbie's infamous "I didn't take the fish out of the goddamn water" diatribe was hilarious and only a bruiser like him could get away with it. Paul Goodman said he felt liberated when he announced he was stepping down as MP for Aylesbury. When stupid or obnoxious people came to his surgeries for the remainder of his term he let them have it with both barrels. Wycombe, not Aylesbury Probably just as well that he didn't follow his original career intention ( he intended to become a monk)
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