Brecon & Radnorshire

[yellowperil]

I find it fairly astonishing that there is no prediction thread for the B&R by-election, in the way we had an informal one here for Peterborough and for most parliamentary by elections of interest in the last few years,so here goes-a last chance to get egg on your face before it's too late.

[yellowperil]

And indeed the last chance for me to get egged too. My starting point is the published poll of a couple of weeks ago which most people seemed to think was about right for where we were then. LD 42, Con 28, BxP 20 being then the key figures. My feeling is that since then the battle will have hardened between the two frontrunners while the Brexiteers will have suffered something of a car crash -or was that a bus crash? Labour will I think have been squeezed pretty hard and the question now must be whether the keep their deposit. And then that all important battle for fifth and sixth... FWIW, here's my latest guess:

LD 50,Con 36, BxP 9, Lab 4.5, OMRLP 0.3, UKIP 0.2

[LDCaerdydd]

LD....37
Con..30
Brx....22
Lab....9
UKIP..1.5
OM...0.5

Turnout 62%

[carlton43]

LD... 40
Con.. 33
BP... 12
Lab.. 10
Oth.. 5

[Strontium Dog]

LD 40
Con 36
Lab 12
BxP 9
UKIP 2.5
OMRLP 0.5

[mboy]

ld 45
con 34
bxp 14
lab 5
oth 2

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Liberal Democrats 42
Conservatives 30.1
Brexit 18.5
Labour 7.7
Ukip 0.9
Omrl 0.8

[johnloony]

LD 52 Con 31 Brx 9 Lab 6 UKIP 1.4 OMRLP 0.6

[Deleted]

Liberal Democrats 47
Conservatives 35
Brexit Party 9
Labour 7
UKIP 1.5
OMRLP 0.5

[yellowperil]

Keep them coming - it's interesting to see the differences of opinion and yet the fairly strong similarities of expectation at the same time. Nobody yet going for a Tory hold even though there seems to have been a small surge of bets on the Tory elsewhere- maybe just tempted in by the big financial killing to be had if that were to be the case. No prize money on offer here, sadly. I will leave this one open for more predictions right up to close of poll tomorrow , not the usual 9am cut off on polling day as for the regular competition.

[Pete Whitehead]

LD      42.4%
Con    34.8%
BP      12.2%
Lab      9.2%
UKIP    0.8%
MRLP  0.5%

[johng]

I'm terrible at predictions, but I'll go with:

LD 45%
Cons 31%
Brexit 14%
Labour 8%
UKIP 1%
MRLP 1%


Turnout: 58%

[agbutler]

Hmmm

LD: 47.4%
Con: 35.3%
BXP: 10.1%
Lab: 4.9%
OMRLP: 1.2%
UKIP: 1.1%

[Tony Otim]

LD 43.2
CON 32.4
BRX 16.0
LAB 6.6
UKIP 1.2
OMRLP 0.6

[mboy]

Well someone needs to go for a Tory win and be the Nostradamus tomorrow if it goes wrong

[Andrew_S]

LD 45%
Con 37%
Brexit 11%
Lab 5.5%
UKIP 1.2%
Loony 0.3%

Turnout: 62%

[syorkssocialist]

LD 44%
Con 35%
BXP 10%
Lab 6.5%
MRLP 1%
UKIP 0.5%

Turnout: 56%

[greenhert]

Liberal Democrats 45
Conservative 35
Brexit 10
Labour 7
UKIP 2
OMRLP 1

[Andrew_S]

I think since Boris took over there's probably been a swing of about 5% from the Brexit Party to the Tories. The opinion poll that was conducted in the constituency recently was probably quite accurate at the time it was taken.

[LDCaerdydd]

Jul 31, 2019 20:18:13 GMT Andrew_S said:

I think since Boris took over there's probably been a swing of about 5% from the Brexit Party to the Tories. That poll that was taken in the constituency recently was probably quite accurate at the time it was taken.

When postal votes were being cast.

Around 1 in 5 voters here have a PV. Turnout amongst them should be higher than non-PVs.

Jul 31, 2019 16:04:59 GMT agbutler said:

OMRLP: 1.2%
UKIP: 1.1%

That would be deliciously hilarious!