I find it fairly astonishing that there is no prediction thread for the B&R by-election, in the way we had an informal one here for Peterborough and for most parliamentary by elections of interest in the last few years,so here goes-a last chance to get egg on your face before it's too late.
And indeed the last chance for me to get egged too. My starting point is the published poll of a couple of weeks ago which most people seemed to think was about right for where we were then. LD 42, Con 28, BxP 20 being then the key figures. My feeling is that since then the battle will have hardened between the two frontrunners while the Brexiteers will have suffered something of a car crash -or was that a bus crash? Labour will I think have been squeezed pretty hard and the question now must be whether the keep their deposit. And then that all important battle for fifth and sixth... FWIW, here's my latest guess:
"To enter into commercial obligations and treaties is an exercise of sovereignty, not a derogation from it. Under treaties we accept obligations which we ourselves help to formulate. Sovereignty and independence are not ends in themselves. It is no good being independent in isolation if it involves running down our economy and watching other nations outstrip us in both trade and influence" - Margaret Thatcher, August 1961
Keep them coming - it's interesting to see the differences of opinion and yet the fairly strong similarities of expectation at the same time. Nobody yet going for a Tory hold even though there seems to have been a small surge of bets on the Tory elsewhere- maybe just tempted in by the big financial killing to be had if that were to be the case. No prize money on offer here, sadly. I will leave this one open for more predictions right up to close of poll tomorrow , not the usual 9am cut off on polling day as for the regular competition.
I think since Boris took over there's probably been a swing of about 5% from the Brexit Party to the Tories. The opinion poll that was conducted in the constituency recently was probably quite accurate at the time it was taken.
I think since Boris took over there's probably been a swing of about 5% from the Brexit Party to the Tories. That poll that was taken in the constituency recently was probably quite accurate at the time it was taken.
When postal votes were being cast.
Around 1 in 5 voters here have a PV. Turnout amongst them should be higher than non-PVs.