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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 1, 2019 21:36:38 GMT
A thread from ITV Wales’ Political Editor:
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 1, 2019 21:36:47 GMT
Is that based on anything specific? Spent five hours up there this afternoon. There’s energy in the LD Campaign but there’s a deffo Boris bounce, and a shed load of Conservative direct mail ‘from Boris’’ specifically regarding Brexit has gone out. That plus general poling day nerves. Any idea whether the turnout will be relatively high or low? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 1, 2019 21:40:03 GMT
LD 45% Con 37% Brexit 11% Lab 5.5% UKIP 1.2% Loony 0.3% Turnout: 62% In terms of votes the result would be something like this: LD 15,600 Con 12,800 BRX 3,800 Lab 1,900 UKIP 400 Loony 100 |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 1, 2019 21:50:30 GMT
Is that based on anything specific? Spent five hours up there this afternoon. There’s energy in the LD Campaign but there’s a deffo Boris bounce, and a shed load of Conservative direct mail ‘from Boris’’ specifically regarding Brexit has gone out. That plus general poling day nerves. Interesting. This looks as if we'll finally have an exciting by election. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 1, 2019 22:01:24 GMT
The last by-election in this seat was decided by 559 votes.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 2, 2019 1:43:29 GMT
I will sleep on that result before trying to confirm whose forecast was closest to the actual, but I know quite a few were very close indeed- indeed the actual result will be very close to the average of all your predictions.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 2, 2019 7:43:22 GMT
WAKE UP AND DO THE NUMBERS, MAN!  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 2, 2019 7:59:17 GMT
Andrew_S won with 5.5 faults, @barnabymarder 2nd with 6.1 There were 21 valid entries
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 2, 2019 8:06:25 GMT
David has +10 additional wrong winner faults. carlton43, mboy and cappuccinokid have additional faults (5, 2 and 1 respectively) for including a non-existent candidate called 'Other' |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 2, 2019 8:10:18 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 2, 2019 8:11:41 GMT
WAKE UP AND DO THE NUMBERS, MAN! Will do when I have the day to myself after Eileen has gone off to day care. If you read my living with dementia thread you might appreciate this is not a good day for it  I now see Pete has taken it on and good luck to him but I will check it out later - wasn't sure why there weren't more valid entries than that? He has also made a slightly different ruling to me about what to do with the "other" voters  |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 2, 2019 8:19:13 GMT
BBC saying the turnout was the highest for a by election since 1997. Is that right?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 2, 2019 8:28:05 GMT
WAKE UP AND DO THE NUMBERS, MAN! Will do when I have the day to myself after Eileen has gone off to day care. If you read my living with dementia thread you might appreciate this is not a good day for it I now see Pete has taken it on and good luck to him but I will check it out later - wasn't sure why there weren't more valid entries than that?He has also made a slightly different ruling to me about what to do with the "other" voters It's the same number of valid entries you reported yourself  I have said I will leave this open up to close of poll but a quick summary of our collective "wisdom" so far. 20 out of 21 have gone for a Lib Dem gain, with just one ( Forfarshire Conservative ) going for a Con hold. Regarding those who did not provide a prediction for some of the minor parties but who invented a candidate description of 'other' I have not made any 'ruling'. I have simply applied the formula that has always been used in such situations since prediction competitions have been run on this site. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 2, 2019 8:38:57 GMT
On the point about valid entries, I think there were four entries submitted after I did my summary but before close of polls, which I think were therefore valid entries under my rules. There is a general correlation between accuracy of forecast ant time of entry, which for may indicate some later entries were picking up in some cases a late Boris mini-bounce.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 2, 2019 8:57:21 GMT
Jees, calm down everyone...  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 2, 2019 8:59:32 GMT
On the point about valid entries, I think there were four entries submitted after I did my summary but before close of polls, which I think were therefore valid entries under my rules. There is a general correlation between accuracy of forecast ant time of entry, which for may indicate some later entries were picking up in some cases a late Boris mini-bounce. All the entries were several hours after the usual deadline and would therefore have attracted the maximum number of late penalty faults. One of them was even after the close of polls. I don't see where you have outlined 'your rules' on this thread but then I don't understand why you would be so presumptious as to invent your own rules when we have long-established rules on this forum which predate your presence here by many years. If you want to work out the scores for the invalid entries that's up to you. I am just reporting on the actual results here - not expressing a personal opinion |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 2, 2019 9:01:59 GMT
David has +10 additional wrong winner faults. carlton43, mboy and cappuccinokid have additional faults (5, 2 and 1 respectively) for including a non-existent candidate called 'Other' Who appointed you returning officer? What a typical fuckwit remark to give penalties for the temerity of grouping the idiots under 'other'. Get stuffed you twerp. Lol - have your 2.5 points then carlton. Like I said to yellowperil I am just reporting the facts. You can pretend you only got 20 faults if you like. You're still in the bottom quintile you fucking snoflake  |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 2, 2019 9:14:16 GMT
Eileen has now gone off to day care, and a kind neighbour has taken her, so I can indeed spend a few minutes on this completing the scores for the four late entries, who were@msc, torremark, froome and yorkshireluke. They all were just within the actual cut off I had announced and I had repeated that when I gave my interim list of entries which it should have been clear was not a definitive list of valid entries. Not that this is a big issue in the overall scheme of things- I have bigger things to worry about. I make it that Torremark is the best of these later entries on 9.9, Froome on 11.6, Yorkshire Luke on 21.7 and msc on 20.2 plus 10 wrong winner points. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 2, 2019 9:14:46 GMT
Who appointed you returning officer? What a typical fuckwit remark to give penalties for the temerity of grouping the idiots under 'other'. Get stuffed you twerp. Lol - have your 2.5 points then carlton. Like I said to yellowperil I am just reporting the facts. You can pretend you only got 20 faults if you like. You're still in the bottom quintile you fucking snoflake Hmmm! I had cancelled my post, but now wish I hadn't. By the way, thanks a bundle for standing here and doing nothing at all except help to lose a seat to the Remain forces. That follows upon your spectacular failure at Peterborough when you did the same thing. Your party is now a major part of the problem and no part of any solution. I rate the BP below the LDs and boy is that low! |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2019 9:19:49 GMT
Lol - have your 2.5 points then carlton. Like I said to yellowperil I am just reporting the facts. You can pretend you only got 20 faults if you like. You're still in the bottom quintile you fucking snoflake Hmmm! I had cancelled my post, but now wish I hadn't. By the way, thanks a bundle for standing here and doing nothing at all except help to lose a seat to the Remain forces. That follows upon your spectacular failure at Peterborough when you did the same thing. Your party is now a major part of the problem and no part of any solution. I rate the BP below the LDs and boy is that low! ‘When a party stands aside or stands down or enters a pact, it proves two things to itself and to the world. It shows that it is weak and timid and at core not really a serious party. It also proves that its ideals and principles and voter loyalty are not very important to it. A party that is more concerned to ensure another party loses than to attempt to win for itself and to gradually build support and to convert and alter minds has in that act lost any claim to respect and become a mere fellow traveller to a larger party.’ ——- A post you made made a little over a month ago in the Brecon and Radnorshire thread, Carlton. And it was the minor third party Conservatives who led to a Labour hold in Peterborough. |
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