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Post by manchesterman on Jul 31, 2019 20:20:47 GMT
LD 38
Con 32
BXP 19
Lab 8
UKIP 2
OMRLP 1
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 31, 2019 20:59:35 GMT
LD 42 Con 34 Brexit 12 Lab 9 UKIP 2 OMRLP 1
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2019 7:02:37 GMT
Tory Hold now 5-1
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,712
Member is Online
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Post by mboy on Aug 1, 2019 8:52:50 GMT
Sounds not far off, though I think the number of ballots posted before Boris took over mean it's likely a bit less than that. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 1, 2019 9:43:16 GMT
I'm a betting man, so I'll take a punt. Most probably wrong but it's a bit of fun.
Conservative - 35
Liberal Democrat - 33
Brexit Party - 23
Labour - 7
UKIP - 1
Official Monster Raving Loony - 1
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 1, 2019 10:12:01 GMT
I'm a betting man, so I'll take a punt. Most probably wrong but it's a bit of fun. Conservative - 35 Liberal Democrat - 33 Brexit Party - 23 Labour - 7 UKIP - 1 Official Monster Raving Loony - 1 Someone had to, although I think if the Conservatives were to win I think they'd probably have to push TBP quite a bit lower than that... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 1, 2019 10:57:38 GMT
And my take is that a "shock" Tory hold will only happen if the Labour vote holds up "better than expected".
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Aug 1, 2019 13:54:37 GMT
I think somewhere in the region of
LD 40
Con 37
Brexit 15
Labour 6
Kipper 1
Loony 1
Intuitively the Con/Brexit axis feels a little larger than the Lib/Lab axis, but the LDs are relying on squeezing Labour more effectively than the Tories squeeze the Brexit party. So it's the performance of the 3rd/4th parties that will decide the outcome - another illustration of how poorly First Past The Post serves us.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 1, 2019 15:12:08 GMT
I think somewhere in the region of LD 40 Con 37 Brexit 15 Labour 6 Kipper 1 Loony 1 Intuitively the Con/Brexit axis feels a little larger than the Lib/Lab axis, but the LDs are relying on squeezing Labour more effectively than the Tories squeeze the Brexit party. So it's the performance of the 3rd/4th parties that will decide the outcome - another illustration of how poorly First Past The Post serves us. Well in this case, an illustration of how it serves you rather well |
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Post by cappuccinokid on Aug 1, 2019 15:26:21 GMT
Lib 43
Con 31
Lab 6
Brex 19
Other 1
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 1, 2019 16:33:58 GMT
I have said I will leave this open up to close of poll but a quick summary of our collective "wisdom" so far. 20 out of 21 have gone for a Lib Dem gain, with just one ( Forfarshire Conservative ) going for a Con hold. Lib Dem vote share ranges from a low of 33 ( Forfarshire Conservative again) to a high of 52 ( johnloony ). Conservative vote share ranges from a low of 30 ( LDCaerdydd ) to a high of 37 ( Andrew_S and ricmk )- a remarkably small range, one might think. BrexitParty vote share ranges from 9( Strontium Dog , johnloony , @web ) to a high of 23 ( Forfarshire Conservative )- a lot more uncertain , unsurprisingly Labour vote share ranges from 4.5 (me) to 12 ( Strontium Dog ) UKIP vote share ranges from 0.2 (me) to an assumed 2.5 for carlton43 ( he gave 5% to split between the two others so perforce I have split that evenly between UKIP an OMRLP!- he might have intended a higher share for UKIP?) OMRLP (Lily the Pink) ranges between 0.3 and , apparently, 2.5, with three giving her beating UKIP, and 6 more making it level between 5th and 6th. |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910
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Post by msc on Aug 1, 2019 17:22:25 GMT
Oh well if everyone else is playing (nowt here other than gut feeling)...
Mrlp less than 1%
ukip under 3
Brexit 13
Lib 35
Lab 11
Tory 38
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Post by froome on Aug 1, 2019 17:57:36 GMT
And me.
Lib Dem 46
Conservative 33
Brexit
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Post by torremark on Aug 1, 2019 17:58:09 GMT
Oh well if everyone else is playing (nowt here other than gut feeling)... Mrlp less than 1% ukip under 3 Brexit 13 Lib 35 Lab 11 Tory 38 Lib Dem 47 tory 34 TBP 11 lab 6 Omrlp1 ukip 1 |
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Post by froome on Aug 1, 2019 17:59:09 GMT
Oops pressed too quickly.
Lib Dem 46
Conservative 33
Brexit 12
Labour 6.5
OMRLP 1.3
UKIP 1.2
I think OMLRP did beat UKIP in one of the May local elections, so not unique.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 1, 2019 18:05:45 GMT
Oops pressed too quickly. Lib Dem 46 Conservative 33 Brexit 12 Labour 6.5 OMRLP 1.3 UKIP 1.2 I think OMLRP did beat UKIP in one of the May local elections, so not unique. OMRLP has beaten UKIP lots of times. In Uxbridge in 1997 they got 396 and 39 respectively. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 776
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Post by yorkshireluke on Aug 1, 2019 21:05:40 GMT
Sorry for being late guys, I'd like to state that I have no information of how the day has gone from my desk in York but:
LD: 40.2
Con: 31.6
Brx: 16.7
Lab: 9.9
MRLP: 0.9
UKIP: 0.7
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 1, 2019 21:25:26 GMT
Revising my prediction down.
It’ll be tight.
Got the other half to put a tactical fiver on the blue team at 6pm at 15/2.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 1, 2019 21:29:20 GMT
Revising my prediction down. It’ll be tight. Got the other half to put a tactical fiver on the blue team at 6pm at 15/2. Is that based on anything specific? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 1, 2019 21:32:36 GMT
Revising my prediction down. It’ll be tight. Got the other half to put a tactical fiver on the blue team at 6pm at 15/2. Is that based on anything specific? Spent five hours up there this afternoon. There’s energy in the LD Campaign but there’s a deffo Boris bounce, and a shed load of Conservative direct mail ‘from Boris’’ specifically regarding Brexit has gone out. That plus general poling day nerves. |
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