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Post by melthamhd94nn on Aug 6, 2019 12:51:09 GMT
It's not only tactics. The Lib Dems have already set up a campaign organisation, have delivered a first leaflet for the whole constituency, and are collecting stakeboards for a massive display of poster support. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 6, 2019 12:57:42 GMT
So what are these dozen seats which are now under threat from some Lib Dem/Green pact? This is about the only seat where such a pact could make any difference and it probably isn't needed anyway - the Lib Dems will win easily regardless. Other Lib Dem target seats like Harrogate and York Outer probably don't even feature in the equation =because the majorities are greater than 8,000. Another election articlke that belongs in the Amazing studpidity thread The article was obviously fed to the Press to get some Lib Dem publicity in Hallam. In that respect it was not particularly stupid but I agree the Lib Dems should win anyway.
There was already a Lib Dem/Green pact in Harrogate and Knaresborough, and Skipton and Ripon in 2017. Both Parties did so badly in the election that it had no obvious effect although the Lib Dems hung onto second place in Harrogate, and the Greens managed to hang onto their deposit in Skipton...
Hanretty thinks the Lib Dems got 28% and the Greens 14% in the Euros in Harrogate, while Tory plus BXP was 41%. That suggests a pact might help the Lib Dems a bit.
I agree that there are no obvious gains for either Lib Dems or Greens from the Tories in Yorkshire in an election this year, but longer term Harrogate and York Outer (both Remain voting) could become competitive if the Lib Dems move back into a clear second place and the Tories purge their party of Remainers, Sheffield Central could become competitive for the Greens vs Labour and the Lib Dems could regain Leeds NW as well as Hallam from Labour
My point is that, excepting Leeds NW, none of those constituencies would have been included in the 'more than a dozen Yorkshire constituencies – both Labour and Conservative – where the sitting MPs have majorities of less than 8,000.' But Keighley, for example, where the Lib Dems and Greens couldn't get 4% between them at the last election, apparently would have been included. I'm sure John Grogan may indeed have reason to fear an imminent general election, but a Lib Dem/Green pact in his constituency, maybe not so much.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 6, 2019 13:06:07 GMT
I really think any comparison with the Euro-election is a non-starter - and also, not everyone is going to vote purely on what they think about Brexit....the BXP don't appear to be avoiding Tory leavers in terms of their first 50 announcements. I don't think there will be formal pacts, but what local parties do on the ground is, as always , up to them, and some seats may have little more than a paper candidate The Euro election was a free hit for voters to express their real first preference on that day. In a Lab-Con marginal like Colne Valley of course a lot of that will leak back from Green and Lib Dem to Labour (mainly), and from BXP to Tory (mainly). However real votes in real elections make a much bigger difference to future voting than opinion polls and I don't see the Lib Dem vote collapsing in Colne Valley to anything like 2015 levels, let alone 2017. The poor performance of Labour in the Euros was, as you say, about a lot more than just Brexit.
The Lib Dems are unlikely to stand a paperless candidate in Colne Valley as things stand. They did not in 2017
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 6, 2019 13:15:34 GMT
The article was obviously fed to the Press to get some Lib Dem publicity in Hallam. In that respect it was not particularly stupid but I agree the Lib Dems should win anyway.
There was already a Lib Dem/Green pact in Harrogate and Knaresborough, and Skipton and Ripon in 2017. Both Parties did so badly in the election that it had no obvious effect although the Lib Dems hung onto second place in Harrogate, and the Greens managed to hang onto their deposit in Skipton...
Hanretty thinks the Lib Dems got 28% and the Greens 14% in the Euros in Harrogate, while Tory plus BXP was 41%. That suggests a pact might help the Lib Dems a bit.
I agree that there are no obvious gains for either Lib Dems or Greens from the Tories in Yorkshire in an election this year, but longer term Harrogate and York Outer (both Remain voting) could become competitive if the Lib Dems move back into a clear second place and the Tories purge their party of Remainers, Sheffield Central could become competitive for the Greens vs Labour and the Lib Dems could regain Leeds NW as well as Hallam from Labour
My point is that, excepting Leeds NW, none of those constituencies would have been included in the 'more than a dozen Yorkshire constituencies – both Labour and Conservative – where the sitting MPs have majorities of less than 8,000.' But Keighley, for example, where the Lib Dems and Greens couldn't get 4% between them at the last election, apparently would have been included. I'm sure John Grogan may indeed have reason to fear an imminent general election, but a Lib Dem/Green pact in his constituency, maybe not so much.. Yes, I agree, neither the Greens nor the Lib Dems are going to win Keighley, but nevertheless the warning bells should be ringing for John Grogan as a result of the Lib Dem and Green resurgence (as you imply). The Lib Dems got 15% there in 2010 and the Tories won easily... If Labour could somehow persuade them not to stand things might be different..
If we assume a paragraph or two is missing from the article; then it could be correct! |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2019 18:25:20 GMT
So I was out in Greystones this evening which is in Ecclesall. Already Labour posters up.
I only spoke to a few most of mine were out. The ones I did speak to were undecided. My comrades had more luck they spoke to quite a few Labour voters. Brexit only came up twice. Most people mentioned austerity particularly hitting schools and the health service. Climate change came up a couple times too.
My takeaway tonight was that the core Labour vote is pretty solid. Swing voters haven't made up their mind. The Lib Dems would do better in a general election next year than a by election now
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 13, 2019 18:34:45 GMT
So I was out in Greystones this evening which is in Ecclesall. Already Labour posters up. I only spoke to a few most of mine were out. The ones I did speak to were undecided. My comrades had more luck they spoke to quite a few Labour voters. Brexit only came up twice. Most people mentioned austerity particularly hitting schools and the health service. Climate change came up a couple times too. My takeaway tonight was that the core Labour vote is pretty solid. Swing voters haven't made up their mind. The Lib Dems would do better in a general election next year than a by election now "Labour posters up" could mean a) Labour are going to go for it or b) Labour expect a general election first. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 13, 2019 18:48:18 GMT
My point is that, excepting Leeds NW, none of those constituencies would have been included in the 'more than a dozen Yorkshire constituencies – both Labour and Conservative – where the sitting MPs have majorities of less than 8,000.' But Keighley, for example, where the Lib Dems and Greens couldn't get 4% between them at the last election, apparently would have been included. I'm sure John Grogan may indeed have reason to fear an imminent general election, but a Lib Dem/Green pact in his constituency, maybe not so much.. Yes, I agree, neither the Greens nor the Lib Dems are going to win Keighley, but nevertheless the warning bells should be ringing for John Grogan as a result of the Lib Dem and Green resurgence (as you imply). The Lib Dems got 15% there in 2010 and the Tories won easily... If Labour could somehow persuade them not to stand things might be different..
If we assume a paragraph or two is missing from the article; then it could be correct! I don't presume the Lib Dem leadership is this stupid but being seen to be helping Labour win seats and thus aiding Corbyn in his quest to become PM would damage the Lib Dems immensely with middle class Tory Remainers that are least in part the reason the party has surged in the polls. Luckily Swinson is from the non-Labour friendly faction of the party anyway so half-baked ideas like standing aside for Labour won't happen. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2019 19:15:20 GMT
A bit of Jared bashing as youd imagine too as well as some mentions of the Facebook video campaigning to abolish the cabinet and leadership in favour of a committee structure
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2019 22:01:37 GMT
Yes, I agree, neither the Greens nor the Lib Dems are going to win Keighley, but nevertheless the warning bells should be ringing for John Grogan as a result of the Lib Dem and Green resurgence (as you imply). The Lib Dems got 15% there in 2010 and the Tories won easily... If Labour could somehow persuade them not to stand things might be different..
If we assume a paragraph or two is missing from the article; then it could be correct! I don't presume the Lib Dem leadership is this stupid but being seen to be helping Labour win seats and thus aiding Corbyn in his quest to become PM would damage the Lib Dems immensely with middle class Tory Remainers that are least in part the reason the party has surged in the polls. Luckily Swinson is from the non-Labour friendly faction of the party anyway so half-baked ideas like standing aside for Labour won't happen. There is no question of Labour standing aside for Lib Dem and therefore no question of Lib Dem standing aside for Labour. The question is whether a Party tries or not. There are two lib dem/labour marginal wards in Colne Valley constituency and one narrowly gained from the Tories in May. The Lib Dems see a general election in an unwinnable seat as a chance to consolidate local support and find more helpers. Hence there is a reason to campaign in Lab Con marginals. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2019 22:14:01 GMT
So I was out in Greystones this evening which is in Ecclesall. Already Labour posters up. I only spoke to a few most of mine were out. The ones I did speak to were undecided. My comrades had more luck they spoke to quite a few Labour voters. Brexit only came up twice. Most people mentioned austerity particularly hitting schools and the health service. Climate change came up a couple times too. My takeaway tonight was that the core Labour vote is pretty solid. Swing voters haven't made up their mind. The Lib Dems would do better in a general election next year than a by election now Would that be the core vote of 18.8% for Labour in Ecclesall on May 2nd? |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2019 22:16:20 GMT
Anyway putting posters up for an election that may never happen seems a bit premature!
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 13, 2019 22:29:11 GMT
Any different from the way certain parties would hear that an MP was a bit ill and immediately start preparing for a by-election?
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 13, 2019 23:28:01 GMT
So I was out in Greystones this evening which is in Ecclesall. Already Labour posters up. I only spoke to a few most of mine were out. The ones I did speak to were undecided. My comrades had more luck they spoke to quite a few Labour voters. Brexit only came up twice. Most people mentioned austerity particularly hitting schools and the health service. Climate change came up a couple times too. My takeaway tonight was that the core Labour vote is pretty solid. Swing voters haven't made up their mind. The Lib Dems would do better in a general election next year than a by election now Would that be the core vote of 18.8% for Labour in Ecclesall on May 2nd? Labour absolutely crushed us in Greystones in both 2015 and 2017. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 14, 2019 9:05:59 GMT
Would that be the core vote of 18.8% for Labour in Ecclesall on May 2nd? Labour absolutely crushed us in Greystones in both 2015 and 2017. That does not surprise me, having grown up in Ecclesall. I did think of adding to my post that Greystones is the sort of area Labour have to win big in order to win Hallam but decided it was too speculative.. I would suspect that where I grew up on Ringinglow Rd is much more Lib Dem (but still plenty of Labour voters if they are winning) |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 9:15:30 GMT
What was Greystones like when you growing up? I only ask because I've just bought my own house and I'd say we've done quite well given I'm not earning that well so I was surprised to see so many young professionals living in what I guess would be affordable housing built before the war.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 10:11:43 GMT
This and Leeds North West could both flip back in a November GE.
Alex Sobel is more entrenched than Labour here but both could fall to the LDs.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 14, 2019 10:19:47 GMT
Anyway putting posters up for an election that may never happen seems a bit premature! If there isn't an early GE, a byelection here now appears extremely likely. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 11:16:00 GMT
Talking to members in Hallam it sounds like if he doesn't resign afterall he will be suspended and a recall petition launched. The latest news that his office staff had access to constituency case work without going through parliamentary process and procedure is a serious breach of data protection
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 14, 2019 13:43:55 GMT
Talking to members in Hallam it sounds like if he doesn't resign afterall he will be suspended and a recall petition launched. The latest news that his office staff had access to constituency case work without going through parliamentary process and procedure is a serious breach of data protection Can you launch a Recall Petition without a a preceding criminal conviction? I thought they were there to cover those who received non-custodial sentences that were beneath the automatic disqualification threshold. |
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Post by torremark on Aug 14, 2019 14:08:32 GMT
Talking to members in Hallam it sounds like if he doesn't resign afterall he will be suspended and a recall petition launched. The latest news that his office staff had access to constituency case work without going through parliamentary process and procedure is a serious breach of data protection Can you launch a Recall Petition without a a preceding criminal conviction? I thought they were there to cover those who received non-custodial sentences that were beneath the automatic disqualification threshold. Or being suspended from HOC for longer than x days as was Ian paisley jnr or being convicted of an offense relating to expenses or jailed for less than 12 (?) months |
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