jluk234
Conservative
Next May Make Swinney Pay!
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Post by jluk234 on Jul 31, 2019 13:52:32 GMT
The Brexit Party will probably stand. They’re standing in Brecon and Radnorshire even when the Conservative candidate is a eurosceptic! I agree that they’ll struggle to reach their euro election voteshare. I’m afraid to say that I can’t see us doing better than our performance in 2017. Yes, the Nick Clegg popular vote isn’t there any more. But, this will probably stay with the LDs. 69% of this seat voted Remain. It’s hardly fertile territory for a no deal supporting party. It’s highly likely that a portion of the 2017 Conservative voters voted Remain and can’t stomach a no deal Brexit. As the party of Remain, the LDs will probably get these voters. These Lib Dems you talk of that are apparently worse than a hard left Labour Party, are they the same we ones we went into coalition with? Are they the same Lib Dems that helped to reduce Labour’s voteshare by 8% between 1997 and 2005 which helped us to gain 33 seats during the same period? Furthermore, from which party did we gain 27 seats in 2015 which gave us a majority and allowed us to hold the EU referendum which resulted in Brexit? Yes they are the very same. I was in UKIP when the party stupidly entered into coalition with Clegg. But it was in the hands of bloody Cameron then who was no conservative. We should have run a minority administration with a strongly right wing policy and enticed the opposition to bring us down in a VONC and then slaughtered the bastards at the GE the public resented being caused. A proper Labour Party is our natural opponent and forms the Loyal Opposition. The LDs are our natural enemy. If we don't win a seat the 'Opposition' have it and it damages our majority. It is easier to win seats back from Labour. When the LDs win a seat they can displace us and bed in as at Hallam. We must never support them and aid that programme of encroachment. They are the enemy. It would have been nigh on impossible for us to push through hard right wing legislation without a majority. The more moderate backbenchers would have either split off or continuously rebelled against it. Furthermore, these ‘backbenchers’ aren’t just a small number of MPs. Hell no, they make up more than half of the party. Andrew Lilico, in a recent argument with a Brexit Party supporter who was advocating an alliance between them and us, highlighted how the remainers and anti-no dealers within the Conservatives are more than half of the parliamentary party and are not “like minded people.” In addition to all that we’d have been an absolute laughing stock. We’d be ousted by a no confidence vote within a year and the public would not resent such a thing. They’d be jumping for joy. We’d then get sent back to the doldrums in the election and we’d be out of power for a good while. That could very well have been the end of Thatcherism and she would still have been alive! Instead we entered a coalition. We passed wide ranging policies from same sex marriage to cutting taxes and sorting out the books. In 2015, we won a majority. That majority allowed us to hold the referendum and the people voted leave. We’re now honouring that result. The economy is in much better shape than it was when we took office with employment at a record high and unemployment at a record low. Tax revenue up. Deficit down. Debt just starting to come down. Investment up. Jobs up. Your ideas of what is truly conservative would risk all that. Were we to adopt an extreme economically and socially conservative set of policies, we wouldn’t see the light of day. This country is not the crazed religious wasteland that is America. Most folk here are atheists and the vast majority happily accept our socially liberal legislation and are accepting of those that the legislation caters for. Coming back onto Sheffield Hallam. The Lib Dems ‘displaced’ us in 1997 because we’d been in power for 18 years and there was large scale dissatisfaction with the Major administration! Furthermore, a 12% majority is not hard to overcome. In 1992, we had exactly that - a 12% majority. In 1997, Allan squeezed the Labour vote down from 20% to 13%. Put that , the dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and the fact that the MP was to a large extend a bad match for the seat and you don’t have to be Houdini to understand why we lost it. Overtime, the demographics have changed and become more left wing. Labour have gone from 13% in 1997 to 38% in 2017. We’ve gone from 33% in 1997 to 14% in 2015 and then to 24% in 2017. Nearly a half of those in this seat are now aged under 40! This, the incumbency and leadership factors have allowed the Lib Dems to “bed in” as you call it. Changes in demographics, dissatisfaction with local and national Conservatives, the incumbency and leadership factors have caused us to lose this seat. Not because of some pesky pesky gold birds or orange men and woman. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 31, 2019 14:19:02 GMT
Yes they are the very same. I was in UKIP when the party stupidly entered into coalition with Clegg. But it was in the hands of bloody Cameron then who was no conservative. We should have run a minority administration with a strongly right wing policy and enticed the opposition to bring us down in a VONC and then slaughtered the bastards at the GE the public resented being caused. A proper Labour Party is our natural opponent and forms the Loyal Opposition. The LDs are our natural enemy. If we don't win a seat the 'Opposition' have it and it damages our majority. It is easier to win seats back from Labour. When the LDs win a seat they can displace us and bed in as at Hallam. We must never support them and aid that programme of encroachment. They are the enemy. It would have been nigh on impossible for us to push through hard right wing legislation without a majority. The more moderate backbenchers would have either split off or continuously rebelled against it. Furthermore, these ‘backbenchers’ aren’t just a small number of MPs. Hell no, they make up more than half of the party. Andrew Lilico, in a recent argument with a Brexit Party supporter who was advocating an alliance between them and us, highlighted how the remainers and anti-no dealers within the Conservatives are more than half of the parliamentary party and are not “like minded people.” In addition to all that we’d have been an absolute laughing stock. We’d be ousted by a no confidence vote within a year and the public would not resent such a thing. They’d be jumping for joy. We’d then get sent back to the doldrums in the election and we’d be out of power for a good while. That could very well have been the end of Thatcherism and she would still have been alive! Instead we entered a coalition. We passed wide ranging policies from same sex marriage to cutting taxes and sorting out the books. In 2015, we won a majority. That majority allowed us to hold the referendum and the people voted leave. We’re now honouring that result. The economy is in much better shape than it was when we took office with employment at a record high and unemployment at a record low. Tax revenue up. Deficit down. Debt just starting to come down. Investment up. Jobs up. Your ideas of what is truly conservative would risk all that. Were we to adopt an extreme economically and socially conservative set of policies, we wouldn’t see the light of day. This country is not the crazed religious wasteland that is America. Most folk here are atheists and the vast majority happily accept our socially liberal legislation and are accepting of those that the legislation caters for. Coming back onto Sheffield Hallam. The Lib Dems ‘displaced’ us in 1997 because we’d been in power for 18 years and there was large scale dissatisfaction with the Major administration! Furthermore, a 12% majority is not hard to overcome. In 1992, we had exactly that - a 12% majority. In 1997, Allan squeezed the Labour vote down from 20% to 13%. Put that , the dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and the fact that the MP was to a large extend a bad match for the seat and you don’t have to be Houdini to understand why we lost it. Overtime, the demographics have changed and become more left wing. Labour have gone from 13% in 1997 to 38% in 2017. We’ve gone from 33% in 1997 to 14% in 2015 and then to 24% in 2017. Nearly a half of those in this seat are now aged under 40! This, the incumbency and leadership factors have allowed the Lib Dems to “bed in” as you call it. Changes in demographics, dissatisfaction with local and national Conservatives, the incumbency and leadership factors have caused us to lose this seat. Not because of some pesky pesky gold birds or orange men and woman. We see matters very differently then and probably now. I have always asserted that being strong-willed and assertive gets one a long way. Our party has often had periods of considerable self doubt and wobble. It spends far too much time being fearful and agonizing over 'difficulties', instead of confronting them and smashing them as we did in the Thatcher years. I am a Schopenhauer/Nietzche believer in dynamic will power, and one can achieve nearly anything if one wants it enough and does what is necessary to achieve it. For decades the party has been stuffed with on-message snoflakes afraid of their shadows and with narry an idea between them. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2019 14:22:32 GMT
Was Houdini a noted election expert?
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jul 31, 2019 14:29:20 GMT
Was Houdini a noted election expert? Don’t know, but he was excellent as extrication from seemingly impossible situations. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 31, 2019 15:03:32 GMT
Was Houdini a noted election expert? We've encountered less credible Harrys here. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jul 31, 2019 17:02:32 GMT
Labour won't be fighting for the remain vote, being a leave party This is both tedious and insulting to the intelligence. Labour are now such a "leave" party that they support another referendum with a remain option in all circumstances. So it is no longer Labour's policy to implement Brexit if they win an early GE? |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 31, 2019 19:26:47 GMT
This is both tedious and insulting to the intelligence. Labour are now such a "leave" party that they support another referendum with a remain option in all circumstances. So it is no longer Labour's policy to implement Brexit if they win an early GE? No, it’s to seek to reopen negotiations on the mandate of a new government and to put any new deal negotiated to a confirmatory vote. Should they not agree on a deal, or the EU decline to reopen negotiations, they would then put no deal and remain to a confirmatory vote with a recommendation to remain. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 31, 2019 19:37:19 GMT
Labour won't be fighting for the remain vote, being a leave party This is both tedious and insulting to the intelligence. Labour are now such a "leave" party that they support another referendum with a remain option in all circumstances. Wait till Seamus comes back from his holidays or a manifesto has to be written and we shall see.. The problem for Labout is that different spokespeople have been saying contradictory things about their Brexit policy for so long that no one actually believes they have heard a definitive policy any more. The Brand is in serious trouble.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 31, 2019 19:39:27 GMT
So it is no longer Labour's policy to implement Brexit if they win an early GE? No, it’s to seek to reopen negotiations on the mandate of a new government and to put any new deal negotiated to a confirmatory vote. Should they not agree on a deal, or the EU decline to reopen negotiations, they would then put no deal and remain to a confirmatory vote with a recommendation to remain. Very punchy! |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 31, 2019 20:49:05 GMT
No, it’s to seek to reopen negotiations on the mandate of a new government and to put any new deal negotiated to a confirmatory vote. Should they not agree on a deal, or the EU decline to reopen negotiations, they would then put no deal and remain to a confirmatory vote with a recommendation to remain. Very punchy! Yeah, but realistically boils down to “we’ve arsed about for so long it’s either going to be a General Election which at best results in a hung Parliament (note the “at best”) and none of the other parties will support us as long as Jeremy’s leader, so we either pray that the membership finally wakes up and replaces him with somebody vaguely competent or end up with another BoJo minority government. Or we don’t get a snap election, in which case whatever our position is is irrelevant unless a) Bercow finds a way of giving the House the option of killing no deal and b) those Tories who’ve said they’ll never support no deal finally walk the walk, and they outnumber the Flint’s, Snell’s and Mann’s etc. who’ll back no deal in the hope of saving their so called careers”. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 31, 2019 23:18:25 GMT
No Deal is already the default option.
The only thing which will change that unless the government and EU have negotiated something else, is a VONC.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 6, 2019 10:05:25 GMT
The obvious pact with the Greens would be Hallam for Central.. Whether there is enough goodwill in Sheffield for that i have no idea.. The Greens did very well in Hallam in both the local and Euro Elections, but not as well as the Lib Dems. Meanwhile both those seats were won by Labour in 2017. I notice David Blunkett has been calling for an anti Tory pact, but i cannot see any chance of Labour and the Lib Dems not fighting each other in Hallam and similar seats. I would see this as a much easier Lib Dem gain at either a by-election or general election than Brecon and Radnor, unless Corbyn can wave his magic wand a second time and get Labour above 40%... The false recall thing highlighted on the polling threads is a real danger sign for Labour. A substantial proportion of 2017 Labour supporters are denying or forgetting that they voted for them. These people no longer associate themselves with Labour. Tory voters do remember how they voted, even if they currently support the Brexit Party. Labour needs the Lib Dems and Greens to stand aside in seats like Dewsbury and Colne Valley. The Lib Dems and Greens both feel strongly that they should have more seats at the expense of both Labour and the Tories in a fair electoral system. To get any pact, Labour would have to make a cast iron guarantee of electoral reform, and probably give up some seats like Hallam. None of that is going to happen... Instead they will blame others for splitting the vote if the Tories win, rather than looking in the mirror.. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 6, 2019 10:10:43 GMT
The obvious pact with the Greens would be Hallam for Central.. Whether there is enough goodwill in Sheffield for that i have no idea.. The Greens did very well in Hallam in both the local and Euro Elections, but not as well as the Lib Dems. Meanwhile both those seats were won by Labour in 2017. I notice David Blunkett has been calling for an anti Tory pact, but i cannot see any chance of Labour and the Lib Dems not fighting each other in Hallam and similar seats. I would see this as a much easier Lib Dem gain at either a by-election or general election than Brecon and Radnor, unless Corbyn can wave his magic wand a second time and get Labour above 40%... The false recall thing highlighted on the polling threads is a real danger sign for Labour. A substantial proportion of 2017 Labour supporters are denying or forgetting that they voted for them. These people no longer associate themselves with Labour. Tory voters do remember how they voted, even if they currently support the Brexit Party. Labour needs the Lib Dems and Greens to stand aside in seats like Dewsbury and Colne Valley. The Lib Dems and Greens both feel strongly that they should have more seats at the expense of both Labour and the Tories in a fair electoral system. To get any pact, Labour would have to make a cast iron guarantee of electoral reform, and probably give up some seats like Hallam. None of that is going to happen... Instead they will blame others for splitting the vote if the Tories win, rather than looking in the mirror.. This is daft. In both of those seats those parties standing down would not necessarily benefit Labour, particularly in Colne Valley. The Liberal tradition there is weaker than it used to be but it is definitively anti-Labour. Voters have been quite capable of voting tactically before and will be again, but there will not be full scale pacts - and this includes the Brexit Party, because the Tories aren't standing aside for them either. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 6, 2019 10:28:29 GMT
So what are these dozen seats which are now under threat from some Lib Dem/Green pact? This is about the only seat where such a pact could make any difference and it probably isn't needed anyway - the Lib Dems will win easily regardless. Other Lib Dem target seats like Harrogate and York Outer probably don't even feature in the equation =because the majorities are greater than 8,000. Another election articlke that belongs in the Amazing studpidity thread |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2019 10:34:37 GMT
The Lib Dems will win Hallam whether the Greens stand or not.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 6, 2019 12:04:36 GMT
The obvious pact with the Greens would be Hallam for Central.. Whether there is enough goodwill in Sheffield for that i have no idea.. The Greens did very well in Hallam in both the local and Euro Elections, but not as well as the Lib Dems. Meanwhile both those seats were won by Labour in 2017. I notice David Blunkett has been calling for an anti Tory pact, but i cannot see any chance of Labour and the Lib Dems not fighting each other in Hallam and similar seats. I would see this as a much easier Lib Dem gain at either a by-election or general election than Brecon and Radnor, unless Corbyn can wave his magic wand a second time and get Labour above 40%... The false recall thing highlighted on the polling threads is a real danger sign for Labour. A substantial proportion of 2017 Labour supporters are denying or forgetting that they voted for them. These people no longer associate themselves with Labour. Tory voters do remember how they voted, even if they currently support the Brexit Party. Labour needs the Lib Dems and Greens to stand aside in seats like Dewsbury and Colne Valley. The Lib Dems and Greens both feel strongly that they should have more seats at the expense of both Labour and the Tories in a fair electoral system. To get any pact, Labour would have to make a cast iron guarantee of electoral reform, and probably give up some seats like Hallam. None of that is going to happen... Instead they will blame others for splitting the vote if the Tories win, rather than looking in the mirror.. This is daft. In both of those seats those parties standing down would not necessarily benefit Labour, particularly in Colne Valley. The Liberal tradition there is weaker than it used to be but it is definitively anti-Labour. Voters have been quite capable of voting tactically before and will be again, but there will not be full scale pacts - and this includes the Brexit Party, because the Tories aren't standing aside for them either. From 2010 to 2017 the Lib Dem vote in Colne Valley fell by 24.1%, the Labour vote went up by 21.6%, and the Tory vote by 9.2% (and 5.5% of BNP and UKIP votes will probably have gone more to Tory than Labour. Labour won by a margin of 1.7%. Jason McCartney voted Brexit and is standing again - the BXP may well give him a free run.
Meanwhile Hanretty estimates the following in Colne Valley for the Euro election: BXP 35%; Con7%, Lab 16%; Green 14% Lib Dem 19%
I am sure Dominic Cummings has Colne Valley on his list, based on those figures. We are not talking about the days of Richard Wainwright here.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 6, 2019 12:09:26 GMT
I really think any comparison with the Euro-election is a non-starter - and also, not everyone is going to vote purely on what they think about Brexit....the BXP don't appear to be avoiding Tory leavers in terms of their first 50 announcements.
I don't think there will be formal pacts, but what local parties do on the ground is, as always , up to them, and some seats may have little more than a paper candidate
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2019 12:31:39 GMT
People forget UKIP won the EU elections 5 years ago and got 13% a year later.
The BXP won't win any seats - it's just a vanity project for Nigel Farage.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 6, 2019 12:40:05 GMT
People forget UKIP won the EU elections 5 years ago and got 13% a year later. The BXP won't win any seats - it's just a vanity project for Nigel Farage. I don't think anyone on here forgets it.
I wouldn't describe it as a 'vanity project'. It is a vehicle set up to ensure Brexit happens on the terms he wants it to happen. UKIP had become too toxic for a national profile.
If the new Johnson led government obliges, then almost certainly no candidates at elections, etc. If it doesn't, then candidates will stand to try and ensure a Brexit looking outcome, or threaten to stand at any rate.
Of course, it might be so emboldened by any success that it does carry on, or some of its 'members' (not that it has any - technically) will try and carry on in a related form.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 6, 2019 12:48:12 GMT
So what are these dozen seats which are now under threat from some Lib Dem/Green pact? This is about the only seat where such a pact could make any difference and it probably isn't needed anyway - the Lib Dems will win easily regardless. Other Lib Dem target seats like Harrogate and York Outer probably don't even feature in the equation =because the majorities are greater than 8,000. Another election articlke that belongs in the Amazing studpidity thread The article was obviously fed to the Press to get some Lib Dem publicity in Hallam. In that respect it was not particularly stupid but I agree the Lib Dems should win anyway.
There was already a Lib Dem/Green pact in Harrogate and Knaresborough, and Skipton and Ripon in 2017. Both Parties did so badly in the election that it had no obvious effect although the Lib Dems hung onto second place in Harrogate, and the Greens managed to hang onto their deposit in Skipton...
Hanretty thinks the Lib Dems got 28% and the Greens 14% in the Euros in Harrogate, while Tory plus BXP was 41%. That suggests a pact might help the Lib Dems a bit.
I agree that there are no obvious gains for either Lib Dems or Greens from the Tories in Yorkshire in an election this year, but longer term Harrogate and York Outer (both Remain voting) could become competitive if the Lib Dems move back into a clear second place and the Tories purge their party of Remainers, Sheffield Central could become competitive for the Greens vs Labour and the Lib Dems could regain Leeds NW as well as Hallam from Labour
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