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Post by andrew111 on Jul 29, 2019 17:52:19 GMT
It isn't a foolish question in the sense that if the Lib Dems were to disappear, Hallam would probably return to being a Tory seat as it was up to 1997.(with different boundaries but not particularly more Tory friendly). Hallam is a very prosperous place, as you can read on Wikipedia. However it does not have a typical Tory demographic for the current period with 60% of working age residents having a degree. When I was growing up in Ecclesall (the heart of the constituency) the idea that this could be a Liberal seat was not in the wildest dreams of local Liberals like my father... However the Lib Dems are unlikely to disappear in Hallam, however much Carlton might desire it! And therefore the Tories are very unlikely to win it, particularly if they continue to espouse such a nationalist/populist agenda. I’m not even sure of that. Hallam was ultra Remain and the Lib Dem vote collapse in neighbouring Central has overwhelmingly benefitted Labour and Labour’s margins in the Sheffield constituencies mean they must be doing well in even the middle class areas (not quite as middle class as Hallam I grant you). Some of the tactical vote in Hallam has already unwound yet Labour still got 38% compared to 24% for the Tories. While I would assume that the remaining Lib Dem vote is quite disproportionately Tory friendly, it would have to be massively so for the Tories to actually lead in a 2 way contest with Labour. The Lib Dem 2017 USP of ‘Stop Brexit’ probably attracted quite a lot of people who would not have voted Tory in the current climate. Sheffield Central is an inner city seat with some giant council estates and is a very different place from Sheffield Hallam. The Tories have never got more than 17% there and the Lib Dems nearly won it in 2010 on the back of direct transfers from Labour. The Greens are now the challengers to Labour. They got squeezed badly in the extraordinary "national tactical voting" which benefitted Labour so much in 2017, but in a by-election i would back the Greens to win there, and in a General Election where Labour get 30% like in 2010, the Greens might run Labour close as the Lib Dems did. Up to 2010, the Lib Dems turned many former Labour voters into Lib Dem voters. Many of them switched to Labour owing to the coaltion and Clegg won in 2015 thanks to Tory tactical voting. The Leave part of that tactical vote went back to the Tories in 2017, but Hallam is one of those places where most of the right of centre vote is Remain, not Leave. If there were no Lib Dems Labour might win the seat in a good year, and the Tories may be changing into a Party that could never win it, but it is a right of centre seat in economic outlook |
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Post by David Ashforth on Jul 29, 2019 21:12:57 GMT
From the last Hallam by-election.  |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 30, 2019 13:39:32 GMT
I’m not even sure of that. Hallam was ultra Remain and the Lib Dem vote collapse in neighbouring Central has overwhelmingly benefitted Labour and Labour’s margins in the Sheffield constituencies mean they must be doing well in even the middle class areas (not quite as middle class as Hallam I grant you). Some of the tactical vote in Hallam has already unwound yet Labour still got 38% compared to 24% for the Tories. While I would assume that the remaining Lib Dem vote is quite disproportionately Tory friendly, it would have to be massively so for the Tories to actually lead in a 2 way contest with Labour. The Lib Dem 2017 USP of ‘Stop Brexit’ probably attracted quite a lot of people who would not have voted Tory in the current climate. Sheffield Central is an inner city seat with some giant council estates and is a very different place from Sheffield Hallam. The Tories have never got more than 17% there and the Lib Dems nearly won it in 2010 on the back of direct transfers from Labour. The Greens are now the challengers to Labour. They got squeezed badly in the extraordinary "national tactical voting" which benefitted Labour so much in 2017, but in a by-election i would back the Greens to win there, and in a General Election where Labour get 30% like in 2010, the Greens might run Labour close as the Lib Dems did. Of course at one time back in 1995 or something I was acquainted with Paul Blomfield when he was the Chair of the Blades Independent Fans Association (BIFA), so i am sure he deserves to keep his seat! |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 30, 2019 13:56:37 GMT
Jared O'Mara's mental state appears rather volatile, to say the least. Is there a chance that he might not actually follow through on his resignation announcement, and the by-election may never happen..... Quite a substantial chance I would have thought, given that no-one appears to have any influence over him (that we know of). He has a few summer weeks to calm down and contemplate £79,468, |
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jluk234
Conservative
Next May Make Swinney Pay!
Posts: 431 
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Post by jluk234 on Jul 30, 2019 15:22:52 GMT
The Conservatives are stuffed here. Some of their vote will go to the Brexit Party but an even larger chunk will go to the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if we went below 10%. Nor would I be surprised if the Lib Dems went above 50%.
In addition, Ian Walker was the Conservatives' candidate in '15 and '17. His Twitter account says "Born and bred in Sheffield."
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 30, 2019 15:56:26 GMT
The Conservatives are stuffed here. Some of their vote will go to the Brexit Party but an even larger chunk will go to the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if we went below 10%. Nor would I be surprised if the Lib Dems went above 50%. In addition, Ian Walker was the Conservatives' candidate in '15 and '17. His Twitter account says "Born and bred in Sheffield." Well I am hoping BP don't stand and that if they do they will get a lot less than in the Euros bcause it is now a completely wasted vote as the Euros are over, May is out, Johnson is in, we are leaving in October. What on earth is the point of voting BP as they have no policies on anything else? I certainly hope that the Conservatives will build on 2017 and take more back from the LDs to ensure they don't win it even if we can't win it. When I arrive it will be to break this pernicious thinking that electing a LD is better than Labour. It isn't! It is far worse and in majority terms no different at all. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2019 16:11:55 GMT
I hope the Brexit Party keep taking votes off the Tories until Brexit happens.
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markf
Non-Aligned
a victim of IDS
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Post by markf on Jul 30, 2019 16:54:33 GMT
Presumably the average political Sheffielder is looking forward to a by-election with...a distinct local relish. Please don't Lodge Moor jokes Lodge moor, ahh memories lol |
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jluk234
Conservative
Next May Make Swinney Pay!
Posts: 431
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Post by jluk234 on Jul 30, 2019 20:54:01 GMT
The Conservatives are stuffed here. Some of their vote will go to the Brexit Party but an even larger chunk will go to the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if we went below 10%. Nor would I be surprised if the Lib Dems went above 50%. In addition, Ian Walker was the Conservatives' candidate in '15 and '17. His Twitter account says "Born and bred in Sheffield." Well I am hoping BP don't stand and that if they do they will get a lot less than in the Euros bcause it is now a completely wasted vote as the Euros are over, May is out, Johnson is in, we are leaving in October. What on earth is the point of voting BP as they have no policies on anything else? I certainly hope that the Conservatives will build on 2017 and take more back from the LDs to ensure they don't win it even if we can't win it. When I arrive it will be to break this pernicious thinking that electing a LD is better than Labour. It isn't! It is far worse and in majority terms no different at all. The Brexit Party will probably stand. They’re standing in Brecon and Radnorshire even when the Conservative candidate is a eurosceptic! I agree that they’ll struggle to reach their euro election voteshare. I’m afraid to say that I can’t see us doing better than our performance in 2017. Yes, the Nick Clegg popular vote isn’t there any more. But, this will probably stay with the LDs. 69% of this seat voted Remain. It’s hardly fertile territory for a no deal supporting party. It’s highly likely that a portion of the 2017 Conservative voters voted Remain and can’t stomach a no deal Brexit. As the party of Remain, the LDs will probably get these voters. These Lib Dems you talk of that are apparently worse than a hard left Labour Party, are they the same we ones we went into coalition with? Are they the same Lib Dems that helped to reduce Labour’s voteshare by 8% between 1997 and 2005 which helped us to gain 33 seats during the same period? Furthermore, from which party did we gain 27 seats in 2015 which gave us a majority and allowed us to hold the EU referendum which resulted in Brexit? |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jul 30, 2019 21:15:08 GMT
Well I am hoping BP don't stand and that if they do they will get a lot less than in the Euros bcause it is now a completely wasted vote as the Euros are over, May is out, Johnson is in, we are leaving in October. What on earth is the point of voting BP as they have no policies on anything else? I certainly hope that the Conservatives will build on 2017 and take more back from the LDs to ensure they don't win it even if we can't win it. When I arrive it will be to break this pernicious thinking that electing a LD is better than Labour. It isn't! It is far worse and in majority terms no different at all. The Brexit Party will probably stand. They’re standing in Brecon and Radnorshire even when the Conservative candidate is a eurosceptic! I agree that they’ll struggle to reach their euro election voteshare. I’m afraid to say that I can’t see us doing better than our performance in 2017. Yes, the Nick Clegg popular vote isn’t there any more. But, this will probably stay with the LDs. 69% of this seat voted Remain. It’s hardly fertile territory for a no deal supporting party. It’s highly likely that a portion of the 2017 Conservative voters voted Remain and can’t stomach a no deal Brexit. As the party of Remain, the LDs will probably get these voters. These Lib Dems you talk of that are apparently worse than a hard left Labour Party, are they the same we ones we went into coalition with? Are they the same Lib Dems that helped to reduce Labour’s voteshare by 8% between 1997 and 2005 which helped us to gain 33 seats during the same period? Furthermore, from which party did we gain 27 seats in 2015 which gave us a majority and allowed us to hold the EU referendum which resulted in Brexit? May was still at the head without certainty as to the replacement when the candidates list in Brecon closed. It would be more reasonable to urge them not to stand now, at least until 31October. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2019 21:18:04 GMT
The Brexit Party will probably stand. They’re standing in Brecon and Radnorshire even when the Conservative candidate is a eurosceptic! I agree that they’ll struggle to reach their euro election voteshare. I’m afraid to say that I can’t see us doing better than our performance in 2017. Yes, the Nick Clegg popular vote isn’t there any more. But, this will probably stay with the LDs. 69% of this seat voted Remain. It’s hardly fertile territory for a no deal supporting party. It’s highly likely that a portion of the 2017 Conservative voters voted Remain and can’t stomach a no deal Brexit. As the party of Remain, the LDs will probably get these voters. These Lib Dems you talk of that are apparently worse than a hard left Labour Party, are they the same we ones we went into coalition with? Are they the same Lib Dems that helped to reduce Labour’s voteshare by 8% between 1997 and 2005 which helped us to gain 33 seats during the same period? Furthermore, from which party did we gain 27 seats in 2015 which gave us a majority and allowed us to hold the EU referendum which resulted in Brexit? May was still at the head without certainty as to the replacement when the candidates list in Brecon closed. It would be more reasonable to urge them not to stand now, at least until 31October. What are people afraid of if the Brexit Party stand? Cameron won a majority in 2015, despite UKIP getting just shy of 4 million votes. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 30, 2019 21:39:09 GMT
Well I am hoping BP don't stand and that if they do they will get a lot less than in the Euros bcause it is now a completely wasted vote as the Euros are over, May is out, Johnson is in, we are leaving in October. What on earth is the point of voting BP as they have no policies on anything else? I certainly hope that the Conservatives will build on 2017 and take more back from the LDs to ensure they don't win it even if we can't win it. When I arrive it will be to break this pernicious thinking that electing a LD is better than Labour. It isn't! It is far worse and in majority terms no different at all. The Brexit Party will probably stand. They’re standing in Brecon and Radnorshire even when the Conservative candidate is a eurosceptic! I agree that they’ll struggle to reach their euro election voteshare. I’m afraid to say that I can’t see us doing better than our performance in 2017. Yes, the Nick Clegg popular vote isn’t there any more. But, this will probably stay with the LDs. 69% of this seat voted Remain. It’s hardly fertile territory for a no deal supporting party. It’s highly likely that a portion of the 2017 Conservative voters voted Remain and can’t stomach a no deal Brexit. As the party of Remain, the LDs will probably get these voters. These Lib Dems you talk of that are apparently worse than a hard left Labour Party, are they the same we ones we went into coalition with? Are they the same Lib Dems that helped to reduce Labour’s voteshare by 8% between 1997 and 2005 which helped us to gain 33 seats during the same period? Furthermore, from which party did we gain 27 seats in 2015 which gave us a majority and allowed us to hold the EU referendum which resulted in Brexit? Yes they are the very same. I was in UKIP when the party stupidly entered into coalition with Clegg. But it was in the hands of bloody Cameron then who was no conservative. We should have run a minority administration with a strongly right wing policy and enticed the opposition to bring us down in a VONC and then slaughtered the bastards at the GE the public resented being caused. A proper Labour Party is our natural opponent and forms the Loyal Opposition. The LDs are our natural enemy. If we don't win a seat the 'Opposition' have it and it damages our majority. It is easier to win seats back from Labour. When the LDs win a seat they can displace us and bed in as at Hallam. We must never support them and aid that programme of encroachment. They are the enemy. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Jul 31, 2019 5:42:19 GMT
I accept this is rather unlikely but could the Conservatives be competitive here if the Boris bounce continues and if the Brexit Party falls away. In a tight contest with Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens all winning good chunks of the large Remain vote, could the Conservatives creep through the middle to win with between 25-30% of the vote in a four-way contest. They got nearly 24% in 2017 so I don’t see this impossible although it is highly unlikely. Labour won't be fighting for the remain vote, being a leave party. I would imagine there will be an immense squeeze message on the Greens. From my social media Gordon has been assiduously working the seat for some time. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 31, 2019 5:59:03 GMT
I accept this is rather unlikely but could the Conservatives be competitive here if the Boris bounce continues and if the Brexit Party falls away. In a tight contest with Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens all winning good chunks of the large Remain vote, could the Conservatives creep through the middle to win with between 25-30% of the vote in a four-way contest. They got nearly 24% in 2017 so I don’t see this impossible although it is highly unlikely. Labour won't be fighting for the remain vote, being a leave party. I would imagine there will be an immense squeeze message on the Greens. From my social media Gordon has been assiduously working the seat for some time. Well somebody has to. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 31, 2019 6:01:52 GMT
From the last Hallam by-election. I think I am the only member here alive at the time of this by-election, but then only by a couple of weeks. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 31, 2019 6:06:53 GMT
[quote source="/post/811467/thread" timestamp=" Labour won't be fighting for the remain vote, being a leave party. It never stopped them before, why should it do so now? |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 31, 2019 6:10:24 GMT
The Brexit Party will probably stand. They’re standing in Brecon and Radnorshire even when the Conservative candidate is a eurosceptic! I agree that they’ll struggle to reach their euro election voteshare. I’m afraid to say that I can’t see us doing better than our performance in 2017. Yes, the Nick Clegg popular vote isn’t there any more. But, this will probably stay with the LDs. 69% of this seat voted Remain. It’s hardly fertile territory for a no deal supporting party. It’s highly likely that a portion of the 2017 Conservative voters voted Remain and can’t stomach a no deal Brexit. As the party of Remain, the LDs will probably get these voters. These Lib Dems you talk of that are apparently worse than a hard left Labour Party, are they the same we ones we went into coalition with? Are they the same Lib Dems that helped to reduce Labour’s voteshare by 8% between 1997 and 2005 which helped us to gain 33 seats during the same period? Furthermore, from which party did we gain 27 seats in 2015 which gave us a majority and allowed us to hold the EU referendum which resulted in Brexit? Yes they are the very same. I was in UKIP when the party stupidly entered into coalition with Clegg. But it was in the hands of bloody Cameron then who was no conservative. We should have run a minority administration with a strongly right wing policy and enticed the opposition to bring us down in a VONC and then slaughtered the bastards at the GE the public resented being caused. A proper Labour Party is our natural opponent and forms the Loyal Opposition. The LDs are our natural enemy. If we don't win a seat the 'Opposition' have it and it damages our majority. It is easier to win seats back from Labour. When the LDs win a seat they can displace us and bed in as at Hallam. We must never support them and aid that programme of encroachment. They are the enemy. You have a stronger sense of entitlement than a "snoflake" Carlton |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 31, 2019 8:51:28 GMT
On a different matter, since the writ can't be moved in recess does this now mean there's a potential filibuster available?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 31, 2019 10:35:21 GMT
I accept this is rather unlikely but could the Conservatives be competitive here if the Boris bounce continues and if the Brexit Party falls away. In a tight contest with Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens all winning good chunks of the large Remain vote, could the Conservatives creep through the middle to win with between 25-30% of the vote in a four-way contest. They got nearly 24% in 2017 so I don’t see this impossible although it is highly unlikely. Labour won't be fighting for the remain vote, being a leave party This is both tedious and insulting to the intelligence. Labour are now such a "leave" party that they support another referendum with a remain option in all circumstances. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Jul 31, 2019 11:42:18 GMT
Labour won't be fighting for the remain vote, being a leave party This is both tedious and insulting to the intelligence. Labour are now such a "leave" party that they support another referendum with a remain option in all circumstances. Wait, are you saying that backing a 2nd referendum in all circumstances and backing remain against a Tory/no deal (and probably a Labour deal as well) is not massively more appealing to leave voters? |
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