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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 29, 2019 7:53:51 GMT
I accept this is rather unlikely but could the Conservatives be competitive here if the Boris bounce continues and if the Brexit Party falls away. In a tight contest with Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens all winning good chunks of the large Remain vote, could the Conservatives creep through the middle to win with between 25-30% of the vote in a four-way contest. They got nearly 24% in 2017 so I don’t see this impossible although it is highly unlikely.
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Post by Antiochian on Jul 29, 2019 7:56:55 GMT
As I haven't run as an MP, that statement is irrelevant...  I didn't know you were an MP? I didn't know you were a runner? One runs for a seat in Parliament in Australia.... Whereas in the UK some merely parachute... |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 29, 2019 8:00:11 GMT
I didn't know you were an MP? I didn't know you were a runner? One runs for a seat in Parliament in Australia.... Whereas in the UK some merely parachute... If you're not a runner what sort are you, old bean? |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 29, 2019 8:14:27 GMT
I didn't know you were an MP? I didn't know you were a runner? One runs for a seat in Parliament in Australia.... Whereas in the UK some merely parachute... My strictures were about grammar. If one is 'to run' "as an MP", then one has first to be an MP? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 29, 2019 8:24:47 GMT
I accept this is rather unlikely but could the Conservatives be competitive here if the Boris bounce continues and if the Brexit Party falls away. In a tight contest with Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens all winning good chunks of the large Remain vote, could the Conservatives creep through the middle to win with between 25-30% of the vote in a four-way contest. They got nearly 24% in 2017 so I don’t see this impossible although it is highly unlikely. I don't see the Lib Dems falling away enough for that to happen. If the Greens do surge (which I think is unlikely) then their vote will mostly come from Labour. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 29, 2019 8:50:20 GMT
I accept this is rather unlikely but could the Conservatives be competitive here if the Boris bounce continues and if the Brexit Party falls away. In a tight contest with Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens all winning good chunks of the large Remain vote, could the Conservatives creep through the middle to win with between 25-30% of the vote in a four-way contest. They got nearly 24% in 2017 so I don’t see this impossible although it is highly unlikely. Be careful mate. I spent 18-months suggesting this as a possibility for such structural reasons on the breakdown of LD hegemony and got a seriously good kicking for it. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 29, 2019 8:53:53 GMT
The continued deadness of the Tories here at local level has to be a big factor against it, though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2019 9:22:06 GMT
The Tory vote share fell at every election from 1979 to 2015.
They last won council seats in 2004.
I think Rory would’ve had more appeal here.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 29, 2019 10:08:55 GMT
The Tory vote share fell at every election from 1979 to 2015. They last won council seats in 2004. I think Rory would’ve had more appeal here. I don't think who is Tory leader would have made any difference whatsoever. |
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Post by David Ashforth on Jul 29, 2019 10:36:23 GMT
Ian Walker has been selected as the Conservative candidate.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 29, 2019 12:22:41 GMT
I accept this is rather unlikely but could the Conservatives be competitive here if the Boris bounce continues and if the Brexit Party falls away. In a tight contest with Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens all winning good chunks of the large Remain vote, could the Conservatives creep through the middle to win with between 25-30% of the vote in a four-way contest. They got nearly 24% in 2017 so I don’t see this impossible although it is highly unlikely. It isn't a foolish question in the sense that if the Lib Dems were to disappear, Hallam would probably return to being a Tory seat as it was up to 1997.(with different boundaries but not particularly more Tory friendly). Hallam is a very prosperous place, as you can read on Wikipedia. However it does not have a typical Tory demographic for the current period with 60% of working age residents having a degree. When I was growing up in Ecclesall (the heart of the constituency) the idea that this could be a Liberal seat was not in the wildest dreams of local Liberals like my father... However the Lib Dems are unlikely to disappear in Hallam, however much Carlton might desire it! And therefore the Tories are very unlikely to win it, particularly if they continue to espouse such a nationalist/populist agenda. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 29, 2019 12:58:22 GMT
The continued deadness of the Tories here at local level has to be a big factor against it, though. Less of an issue potentially in a by-election when national activists can be bussed in to make up for the absence of a local campaign machine. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 29, 2019 13:08:12 GMT
The continued deadness of the Tories here at local level has to be a big factor against it, though. Less of an issue potentially in a by-election when national activists can be bussed in to make up for the absence of a local campaign machine. In this case, it would still make little difference (imho). |
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Post by polaris on Jul 29, 2019 13:30:58 GMT
Jared O'Mara's mental state appears rather volatile, to say the least. Is there a chance that he might not actually follow through on his resignation announcement, and the by-election may never happen.....
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 29, 2019 13:33:01 GMT
Jared O'Mara's mental state appears rather volatile, to say the least. Is there a chance that he might not actually follow through on his resignation announcement, and the by-election may never happen..... Quite a substantial chance I would have thought, given that no-one appears to have any influence over him (that we know of). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2019 13:34:53 GMT
Could he be subject to a recall petition, if he was detained under the mental health act?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 29, 2019 13:48:10 GMT
Could he be subject to a recall petition, if he was detained under the mental health act? No, and the legal provisions depriving MPs of their seat if detained for compulsory mental health treatment have been repealed. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 29, 2019 14:53:06 GMT
It isn't a foolish question in the sense that if the Lib Dems were to disappear, Hallam would probably return to being a Tory seat as it was up to 1997.(with different boundaries but not particularly more Tory friendly). Hallam is a very prosperous place, as you can read on Wikipedia. However it does not have a typical Tory demographic for the current period with 60% of working age residents having a degree. When I was growing up in Ecclesall (the heart of the constituency) the idea that this could be a Liberal seat was not in the wildest dreams of local Liberals like my father... However the Lib Dems are unlikely to disappear in Hallam, however much Carlton might desire it! And therefore the Tories are very unlikely to win it, particularly if they continue to espouse such a nationalist/populist agenda. I’m not even sure of that. Hallam was ultra Remain and the Lib Dem vote collapse in neighbouring Central has overwhelmingly benefitted Labour and Labour’s margins in the Sheffield constituencies mean they must be doing well in even the middle class areas (not quite as middle class as Hallam I grant you). Some of the tactical vote in Hallam has already unwound yet Labour still got 38% compared to 24% for the Tories. While I would assume that the remaining Lib Dem vote is quite disproportionately Tory friendly, it would have to be massively so for the Tories to actually lead in a 2 way contest with Labour. The Lib Dem 2017 USP of ‘Stop Brexit’ probably attracted quite a lot of people who would not have voted Tory in the current climate. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 29, 2019 14:59:26 GMT
Could he be subject to a recall petition, if he was detained under the mental health act? No, and the legal provisions depriving MPs of their seat if detained for compulsory mental health treatment have been repealed. Thanks to the Brilliant Barwell Bill. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2019 16:12:21 GMT
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