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Post by yellowperil on Jul 18, 2019 23:51:59 GMT
Frankly, looking at that result Downs North would have been a good place for Lib Dems to have stood aside for the Greens?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 19, 2019 0:27:30 GMT
Frankly, looking at that result Downs North would have been a good place for Lib Dems to have stood aside for the Greens? Not so much 'stood aside' as not butted in. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 19, 2019 5:33:11 GMT
Surely Daventry is a swing of 8.6% from Conservative to Labour, and that is the only statistic of any significance?
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 19, 2019 5:48:21 GMT
Frankly, looking at that result Downs North would have been a good place for Lib Dems to have stood aside for the Greens? Not so much 'stood aside' as not butted in. I don't think "not butted in" is quite the phrase either- we have been standing in Downs North for years, albeit with slightly different boundaries until this May, and it was the Greens who stood for the first time afaik in May and had a local candidate prepared to make some effort. We put up a candidate as usual, but I think only as paper. In the circumstances I believe we should have gone for it hard and in the present climate a properly run full Lib Dem campaign would probably have won it, given how close the Green came, or we should have given our support to the Green and made it clear why we were doing that. A campaign that was little more than paper was the worst option and let the Tory back in, spoiling an otherwise perfect night. I have to say I'm fairly ashamed of the Ashford Lib Dems. Wouldn't have happened in my day, I insist.  |
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 19, 2019 6:11:19 GMT
All the important stats from this week’s elections
Swings
Cardiff 4.3% Con to Lab
Ashford 1.2% Con to Lab
Ceredigion 1.8% Lab to Con
Daventry 8.6% Con to Lab
Richmond upon Thames 4.0% Con to Lab
Wiltshire 3.0% Con to Lab
So in a triumphant night for Labour they achieved a swing in every ward except where there was no Tory candidate. The naysayers will claim that the party’s vote fell In every ward but that’s because they don’t see the bigger picture.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 19, 2019 6:12:41 GMT
Cut it out.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 19, 2019 6:15:33 GMT
A good night for the Lib Dem’s- that’s becoming a regular sentence used on a Friday morning! A good hold against an Independent in Westbury, a further swing to them to hold in East Sheen. And a good win in Daventry although I think that one was down to the Conservatives choice of candidate.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 19, 2019 6:19:39 GMT
Frankly, looking at that result Downs North would have been a good place for Lib Dems to have stood aside for the Greens? Not so much 'stood aside' as not butted in. No guarantee it would have made any difference to the winning margin though. Hard to know what the second preferences of the remaining Lib Dem vote would be. Some symbolic value perhaps, but local candidates are up to local parties |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 19, 2019 8:36:29 GMT
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Post by ideal4radio on Jul 19, 2019 9:01:47 GMT
WILTSHIRE Westbury North KING, Carole (Liberal Democrat) 488 CUNNINGHAM, Ian Charles Henderson (Independent) 231 PIAZZA, Antonio (Conservative) 140 RUSS, Jane Francesca (Labour) 57 MORLAND, Francis (Independent) 16 So, to continue the theme from much earlier in the thread, Carole King has proved that " You've got a friend " , or in her case, 487 of them ! |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 19, 2019 9:09:51 GMT
Strange isn't the election taking place in North Sheen? As ever I can't tell if this a bad joke or genuine ignorance. Far have I travelled And much have I seen Carry me back to
The Bull at East Sheen...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2019 9:50:33 GMT
All the important stats from this week’s elections Swings Cardiff 4.3% Con to Lab Ashford 1.2% Con to Lab Ceredigion 1.8% Lab to Con Daventry 8.6% Con to Lab Richmond upon Thames 4.0% Con to LabWiltshire 3.0% Con to Lab So in a triumphant night for Labour they achieved a swing in every ward except where there was no Tory candidate. The naysayers will claim that the party’s vote fell In every ward but that’s because they don’t see the bigger picture. Isn't the strictly "correct" interpretation of that one "no swing calculable"?  (sorry to keep this going, but couldn't resist) |
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 19, 2019 10:34:20 GMT
Liberals do not win in Daventry (other than my old friend Brian Lomax, now sadly no longer with us). A bit more involved there than a dud Con candidate, I think. Did Stanley Rundle, the first Liberal on the old Richmond Council (1960s) not win East Sheen? He certainly stood there - I have an antique but very nice looking election leaflet that says "Three for East Sheen".
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 19, 2019 10:41:54 GMT
On the basis of these results the by-elections in Gloucester next Thursday are two of the most interesting for some time. On the basis that the LDs are making a serious effort (which I think they are) they should both be LD gains. But the presence of the first local candidate for the Brexit Party throws a big pebble into the pond(s). I wonder if they will turn out to be LD-Brexit contests? And if so which party/ies will win?
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jul 19, 2019 10:57:49 GMT
On the basis of these results the by-elections in Gloucester next Thursday are two of the most interesting for some time. On the basis that the LDs are making a serious effort (which I think they are) they should both be LD gains. But the presence of the first local candidate for the Brexit Party throws a big pebble into the pond(s). I wonder if they will turn out to be LD-Brexit contests? And if so which party/ies will win? How did Gloucester vote in the big con, er, refferendwm? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2019 11:00:56 GMT
On the basis of these results the by-elections in Gloucester next Thursday are two of the most interesting for some time. On the basis that the LDs are making a serious effort (which I think they are) they should both be LD gains. But the presence of the first local candidate for the Brexit Party throws a big pebble into the pond(s). I wonder if they will turn out to be LD-Brexit contests? And if so which party/ies will win? How did Gloucester vote in the big con, er, refferendwm? Over 58% to leave. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 19, 2019 11:33:42 GMT
How did Gloucester vote in the big con, er, refferendwm? Over 58% to leave. Yes. Which will make the performances of BxP and LDs both worth watching. Don't underestimate the Conservatives in Podsmead. Very young, very keen candidate, possibly the only teenager in the UK to have left Labour for the Conservatives at the height of Corbynmania. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 19, 2019 11:58:26 GMT
Cut what out? And whom are you addressing? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 19, 2019 12:19:15 GMT
I have no desire to get back into prolonged debate with carlton43 or indeed any one else on this when I may be close to leaving the forum; as far as Carlton is concerned our world view is so far apart there is little point in continuing this debate. All I will say is that I totally accept that any understanding of swing as a concept needs to be based on accepting churn as a vital part of the story. Even if you are interested only in swing between Con and Lab, a lot of that swing would involve churn involving what you would no doubt think of as minor parties. I see swing as the averaging out of all the complexities of churn, but if that as a concept is beyond you so be it. I am attempting to convey that the word swing has no point except with Conservative-Labour for these sound psephoogical reasons For decades only those two parties have been in a position to form a government.They are the only parties to fight all seats (except NI) in every GE since 1945 (rare exceptions). They are often the only serious contenders in a seat.Historically they are the measure for the ebb and flow from right to left in the nation. It is not because I disparage other parties or don't think they count or matter. Just at present the BP has the potential to cause my party massive damage perhaps without winning many seats itself. I know that 'Classic Swing' has its limitations, but it still has a purpose and a primary interest. If either of the majors implodes in discord and stops contesting all seats then that classic measure will be over. So "swing" has no meaning in seats outside that duopoly?Just spotted our esteemed Global Moderator's request. Sorry. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 19, 2019 12:28:10 GMT
... onto a Focus leaflet ... ... and put it through a letterbox !  |
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