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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2019 9:32:34 GMT
This one doesn't seem to be up yet so I might down a few thoughts about Ashford Downs North ahead of Tony's no doubt much better informed survey
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2019 10:11:59 GMT
So - Downs North, or North Downs as any sensible person would call it. A large rural ward extending almost as far as the edge of the city and pretty remote from much of the rest of Ashford, the principal centre being Chilham but also including a string of tiny downland villages,very remote from everywhere and from each other. The only one I know well is Molash from the days when it featured largely in the famous Lib Dem by-election victory of Boughton Aluph in the days before it went in with Chilham. I retailed that story in my history of Ashford elections thread, when out of the blue(as you might say) the whole hamlet suddenly flipped Lib Dem. I have however canvassed in Chilham many years ago and it was hard work then , but not totally unrewarding. Villages like Selling, Old Wives Lees and Godmersham were even harder work for any non-local, non -Tory politician.
I really know very little about this local by-election with no fewer than 7 candidates on the SOPN, but I note that of the 7 only two come from within the ward, and that might be significant- the Independent is from Molash and the Green from Old Wives Lees. That may gather them a few votes in their home parishes, which are tiny, whether it counts outside is moot. The Ashford Indy is from Wye which isn't too far away, the Tory from Great Chart, which is. The UKIP person is from Boughton Aluph, so like the AI from a Downland village even if not within the ward. The Labour candidate is the only one to withhold the address , and may well be Ashford town therefore but I don't know that. The Lib Dem is certainly from Ashford town, is the PPC, who also failed to hold our last remaining council seat at the last set of elections. I take it that he's keeping the Lib Dem name on the ballot paper, and doing his best to keep us from disappearing totally, and good luck to him with that.
All in all, I guess I see little to suggest anything other than a Tory win.
edit- I just re read that and realise "almost as far as the edge of the city" was pretty ambiguous to outsiders. The city in question was of course Canterbury!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 8, 2019 15:14:21 GMT
This one doesn't seem to be up yet so I might down a few thoughts about Ashford Downs North ahead of Tony's no doubt much better informed survey Hopefully going up this evening. Half finished but been a bit busy and this is a fairly full week of by-elections. When I add the preview, perhaps you could change the thread title as there's also one on the 16th July. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 8, 2019 19:34:56 GMT
16th July
CARDIFF UA; Cyncoed (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
HOPKINS, Robert James (Liberal Democrat)
HUDSON, Peter Michael (Conservative)
KHANNA-DAVIES, Madhu (Labour)
ROGERS, Morgan Meurig (Plaid Cymru)
2017: LD 1874, 1769, 1727; Con 1852, 1737, 1733; Lab 996, 757, 710; Grn 415
2012: LD 1809, 1727, 1698; Con 1093, 1006, 966; Lab 683, 661, 614; PC 241, 177, 168; Grn 217
2008: LD 2294, 2166, 2152; Con 1439, 1383, 1320; Lab 518, 475, 415; PC 275
2004: LD 2490, 2384, 2347; Con 1106, 1081, 1080; Lab 508, 454, 441; PC 226, 219
Current Council: Lab 39; Con 19; LD 10; PC 4; Heath & Birchgrove Independents 1; 2 vacancies
18th July:
ASHFORD BC; Downs North (Con died)
Candidates:
CARLEY, Rachael Amanda (Ashford Independent)
DEHNEL, Charles Edward (Conservative)
GEE-TURNER, Adrian John (Liberal Democrat)
MEADEN, Geoff (Green)
MEADS, Philip David (UKIP)
RUPPERT LINGHAM, Carly Jan (Labour)
WILLIAMS, Sarah Mary (Independent)
2019: Con 375; Grn 186; LD 148; Lab 82
The Labour candidate stood here in May. The deceased Conservative councillor was Stephen Dehnel, so I’m assuming the candidate is a relative.
Current Council: Con 25; Ashford Independent 11; Lab 7; Grn 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy
CEREDIGION UA; Llanbadarn Fawr (Sulien) (PC died)
Candidates:
CHAPPELL, Michael (Liberal Democrat)
LAYTON, Richard William Henry (Labour)
WOOLFALL JONES, Matthew Nathan (Plaid Cymru)
2017: PC 267; LD 58; Lab 33; Grn 20
2012: PC 338; LD 46; Con 19
2008: PC 348; LD 74;
2004: PC 316; LD 42
Current Council: PC 19; Ind 11; LD 8; Independent Voice Group 3 (1 Lab and 1 Ind); 1 vacancy
DAVENTRY DC; Brixworth (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COE, Stuart Matthew (Labour)
HARRINGTON-CARTER, Lauryn Louise (Conservative)
HARRIS, Jonathan William (Liberal Democrats)
2018: Con 1163; Lab 428; LD 197
2016: Con 928; Lab 317; UKIP 306; LD 137; Grn 123
2015: Con 2601; Lab 726; Grn 517
2014: Con 1082; UKIP 468; Lab 255; Grn 153; LD 123
May 13 by: Con 1082; Lab307; Grn 258; LD 89
Nov 12 by: Con 857; Grn 484
2012: Con 1004, 924, 859; Grn 497; LD 376; Lab 321
The labour candidate has been runner-up in the last two elections here.
Current Council: Con 29; Lab 5; LD 1; 1 vacancy
RICHMOND-UPON-THAMES LB; East Sheen (LD died)
Candidates:
CAMBRIDGE, Julia (Liberal Democrat)
EDWARD, Helen Margaret (Conservative)
OAKLEY, Giles (Labour)
RAWLINSON, Trixie (Women’s Equality Party)
2018: Con 2026, 1979, 1928; LD 1982, 1927, 1724; Lab 276, 244, 176
2014: Con 2159, 2128, 1995; LD 790, 725, 586; Grn 561; Lab 410, 404, 393
2010: Con 3225, 2974, 2971; LD 2010, 1839, 1758; Grn 713; Lab 414, 337, 321
2006: Con 2181, 2126, 2096; LD 994, 973, 938; Grn 570; Lab 212, 193
2002: Con 1697, 1684, 1651; LD 792, 768, 726; Grn 314, 295, 284; Lab 245, 207, 198
Julia Cambridge(LD) was the second LD candidate last year. Giles Oakley (Lab) was also the second-placed Labour candidate. The ongoing absence of a Green candidate is possibly a sign that the electoral pact still stands.
Current Council: LD 38; Con 11; Grn 4; 1 vacancy.
WILTSHIRE UA; Westbury North (LD resigned)
Candidates:
CUNNINGHAM, Ian Charles Henderson (Independent)
KING, Carole (Liberal Democrat)
MORLAND, Francis (Independent)
PIAZZA, Antonio (Conservative)
RUSS, Jane Francesca (Labour)
2017: LD 596; Con 299; Lab 134
2013: LD 493; Ind 199; Con 113; Lab 107
2009: LD 508; Con 379; Ind 162
Current Council: Con 65; LD 20; Ind 9; Lab 3; 1 vacancy
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 8, 2019 20:09:48 GMT
This one doesn't seem to be up yet so I might down a few thoughts about Ashford Downs North ahead of Tony's no doubt much better informed survey Hopefully going up this evening. Half finished but been a bit busy and this is a fairly full week of by-elections. When I add the preview, perhaps you could change the thread title as there's also one on the 16th July. done! |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 15, 2019 19:17:55 GMT
Carole King standing for us in Westbury, I see. I feel a tapestry of puns coming to this thread.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 15, 2019 19:49:35 GMT
Carole King standing for us in Westbury, I see. I feel a tapestry of puns coming to this thread. Nah, its too late |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 15, 2019 19:55:56 GMT
ASHFORD BC; Downs North (Con died) The deceased Conservative councillor was Stephen Dehnel, so I'm assuming the candidate is a relative. His son. www.ashfordconservatives.com/news/downs-north-electionThe southern half contains a large chunk of Richmond Park. The ward is two away from Barnes, where the peninsula is suffering from the closure of Hammersmith Bridge to cars with the added complication that Barnes is impacted more than Hammersmith, but the bridge comes under Hammersmith & Fulham. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,844 
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 15, 2019 22:34:42 GMT
Carole King standing for us in Westbury, I see. I feel a tapestry of puns coming to this thread. Nah, its too late maybe one fine day |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 15, 2019 22:48:53 GMT
No fine days, as it might as well rain until september. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
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Post by john07 on Jul 16, 2019 0:58:23 GMT
No fine days, as it might as well rain until september. That would be Brill. Just like the Building. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 16, 2019 6:53:11 GMT
I thought that was the case, which explains why the Tories chose a candidate with an address so far from the ward, while showing him standing in the central square at Chilham. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 16, 2019 21:36:04 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 16, 2019 22:06:29 GMT
Is Cardiff counting tonight, anyone know?
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 16, 2019 22:06:57 GMT
Is Cardiff counting tonight, anyone know? I believe so. |
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jul 16, 2019 22:38:23 GMT
Lib Dem HOLD Cyncoed (Cardiff)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 16, 2019 22:38:46 GMT
Cardiff is a LD hold. No figures on my Twitter feed (my account is currently restricted after tweeting that Donald Trump is white trash).
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 16, 2019 22:41:49 GMT
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jul 16, 2019 23:01:07 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jul 17, 2019 7:23:11 GMT
A pretty emphatic swing towards the Lib Dems.
I know these are local elections and you can't extrapolate, but since the local elections they have really been on a roll. It gives credence to the polls.
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