|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jul 17, 2019 7:50:04 GMT
Iast week the swing Con>LibDem of something like 44% in Bridlington, this week a mere 16% in Cardiff, so obviously the LD surge is coming to its end  |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2019 8:03:56 GMT
There is no such thing as a 'swing to the Liberal Democrats' and any Bridlington calculation is bunk anyway because there was no previous candidate.
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 17, 2019 8:16:59 GMT
There is no such thing as a 'swing to the Liberal Democrats' ... Middleenglander (above) would beg to disagree with you. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2019 8:30:14 GMT
There is no such thing as a 'swing to the Liberal Democrats' ... Middleenglander (above) would beg to disagree with you. It is statistical rot, and sheer stupidity, to regard these two things as identical: 1) A party which polls 20% in one election and 30% in the next election 2) A party which did not previously have a candidate polling 10% in an election. And I don't care who is doing it. It's bunk. Rubbish. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jul 17, 2019 8:34:40 GMT
There is no such thing as a 'swing to the Liberal Democrats' and any Bridlington calculation is bunk anyway because there was no previous candidate. In my case my tongue was firmly in my cheek and for the avoidance of any doubt I had also added a winking emoji. "Just a bit of fun", David, don't take it so much to heart. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2019 8:38:56 GMT
There is no such thing as a 'swing to the Liberal Democrats' and any Bridlington calculation is bunk anyway because there was no previous candidate. In my case my tongue was firmly in my cheek and for the avoidance of any doubt I had also added a winking emoji. "Just a bit of fun", David, don't take it so much to heart. Yeah, well, have regard to events with one other member of the forum. And the offending post is still up. Pathetic moderation. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2019 8:45:49 GMT
In my case my tongue was firmly in my cheek and for the avoidance of any doubt I had also added a winking emoji. "Just a bit of fun", David, don't take it so much to heart. Yeah, well, have regard to events with one other member of the forum. And the offending post is still up. Pathetic moderation. I'm going to regret asking this, but (for the avoidance of doubt) which offending post are you talking about? |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2019 8:47:55 GMT
Yeah, well, have regard to events with one other member of the forum. And the offending post is still up. Pathetic moderation. I'm going to regret asking this, but (for the avoidance of doubt) which offending post are you talking about? The one I reported. 805516. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2019 8:52:01 GMT
I'm going to regret asking this, but (for the avoidance of doubt) which offending post are you talking about? The one I reported. 805516. If it's the one I'm thinking of, you didn't actually request that it was removed David. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2019 8:57:30 GMT
There is no such thing as a 'swing to the Liberal Democrats' ... Middleenglander (above) would beg to disagree with you. East Riding of Yorkshire, Bridlington North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Swing not meaningful |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2019 8:58:09 GMT
The one I reported. 805516. If it's the one I'm thinking of, you didn't actually request that it was removed David. Well then you can remove both of them. And him. |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2019 8:59:30 GMT
In my case my tongue was firmly in my cheek and for the avoidance of any doubt I had also added a winking emoji. "Just a bit of fun", David, don't take it so much to heart. Yeah, well, have regard to events with one other member of the forum. And the offending post is still up. Pathetic moderation. The Moderation here is really rather good. It is not pathetic, bathetic, unfair, biased, rushed, slow or absent. It is light unobtrusive but ever-present and deployed with finesse. As one who had a serial set of run ins with previous admins I have cause to rejoice at the present state. But I have come to terms with the present state of affairs and with myself! I still have the odd boil up and then relax again often after posting, editing and then deleting. I can see that events drive positions held and despair and discomfort take a toll. Feel the pain of others who see their world in flux and regret it. We have to live through these trials as best we can. In fact this Forum is doing rather well in the face of melt-downs by Conservatives, Labour and UKIP, the rise of the BP, the loom of a form of 'No Deal' Brexit. We have much to put up with but the support of a diverse and pleasant community with only a small number of acid stirrers and outright trolls. |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 17, 2019 9:00:03 GMT
Middleenglander (above) would beg to disagree with you. East Riding of Yorkshire, Bridlington North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Swing not meaningful Sure. But (in this thread) ...
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2019 9:07:52 GMT
Sure. But (in this thread) ...
Oh I only half agree with David's points - a 'swing' where there was no previous candidate from one of the parties, as in Bridlington, is meaningless absolutely. In the Cardiff case it is perfectly legitimate IMO to talk of a swing between Conservative and Lib Dem. The reason I liked David's post is not so much that I agree with him on that but that I admire his tenacity and the fact that he is prepared to stand alone on this very obscure matter of principle. It is much the same way in which I will occasionally like a post by johnloony in which objectively he is talking bollocks |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jul 17, 2019 9:51:34 GMT
Please can you accept that my post which raised the Bridlington "swing" was a "joke", remember those things? The fact that I was using it to suggest the Lib Dem surge was collapsing might have been another clue I wasn't "entirely" serious. I take the serious psephological point both David and Pete are making about alleged swings from a nowhere startpoint, but it was really an OTT reaction to something never intended to be other than a send-up. Of course, some people responding in such an OTT way might suggest they are actually pretty worried  |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2019 9:55:45 GMT
Or that they have been wound up by a troll that has yet to be banned.
|
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on Jul 17, 2019 14:47:23 GMT
Tonight you're mine completely...
But this is a brilliant result by any standards even though there is a lot of Liberal history in the ward. (I once had the pleasant task of announcing a Liberal gain in Cyncoed on the Friday morning of a Liberal Party Assembly. It may have been 1981 or 1982. I specifically remember it because I took advice on the pronunciation of the ward name).
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Jul 17, 2019 14:54:36 GMT
So how do you pronounce it?
|
|
|
|
Post by froome on Jul 17, 2019 15:47:29 GMT
So how do you pronounce it? From when i lived in Cardiff (which was a very long time ago now): Cyn was pronounced somewhere between Kun and Kin, closer to the former. Coed (Welsh for woodland) - oe was usually pronounced as one verb, similar to oy in English, though in Welsh you can sometimes hear the 'e' separately, as in 'oy-ee', so Koyd or Koy-eed. |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 17, 2019 15:53:05 GMT
So how do you pronounce it? From when i lived in Cardiff (which was a very long time ago now): Cyn was pronounced somewhere between Kun and Kin, closer to the former. Coed (Welsh for woodland) - oe was usually pronounced as one verb, similar to oy in English, though in Welsh you can sometimes hear the 'e' separately, as in 'oy-ee', so Koyd or Koy-eed. "Y" is the only Welsh letter that has two different values depending on context. In the word ysbyty (hospital) it is a schwa in the first two syllables and "i" in the third, thus "usbutty" to English ears. I would have hazarded "Kincoyd" myself, given that "y" is often an "i" sound before an "n", but locals will know better. |
|
