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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 26, 2019 7:27:17 GMT
Also three cheers for the three voters who spoiled their ballots, given the margin of victory. It wasn't the spoilt ballots Adam (they might have been fr anyone or no one) it was the BP to whom you owe the victory. No BP and we would have won that. Yes of course. I was just struck by the corresponding numbers and wonder whether the spoilers would have regretted it. Not that I care, given the range of candidates spoiling your paper is the act of a tosser. NB though no BxP would have led to more abstentions, spoilt papers, and Labour voters, even a few for us. Hard to think there wouldn't have been a net +4 for Conservative though. |
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050 
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Post by middyman on Jul 26, 2019 7:32:31 GMT
if more publicity were given in the national media to these results, perhaps more Conservatives would realise the counter-productive effect of their action in supporting the Brexit Party. I loaned them my vote in the Euros as those elections were of very little or no account and it was an opportunity to deliver a well-aimed boot. If Boris fails, then I shall have to reconsider but my view is that it is too early to make a permanent switch of allegiance.
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 26, 2019 7:35:07 GMT
Labour just holds on in safe seat and loses badly in marginal. Not good. A "safe seat" has voted for the Independents in its last three outings, most recently just two months ago by a massive margin? I mean, did you even look at the past results  Hartlepool is a safe Labour seat. Gloucester is a marginal area. I shouldn't have to spell this out on here. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 26, 2019 7:41:44 GMT
Well, that was a really bad result in Podsmead for Labour. Down 34% and lib dems 30% from nowhere. A smaller swing from Con to BXP stopped them gaining. Andrew said this ward is largely council estate as i recall. Probably most of this was normal Lib Dem pavement politics in a place where that was a pleasant surprise to the electorate. However the current chaos in the Labour Party cannot help and if i were a Labour supporter I would really be thinking Corbyn is a liability now. Lib Dem vote up 16% in Barnswood. Good result but very predictable given the polls and the Euros. Happy to see the Greens increase their vote and beat the far right in Hartlepool. Probably the only part of the result with any significance outside Hartlepool. Exactly so, and the Conservative came so close because he did the same. We did it better than him because he's in his teens whereas our bloke is a former mayor of Gloucester and knows how to (and anyway, it's what we do best.) The vacancy was due to "resignation" but AIUI the resignation was to pre-empt disqualification for non-attendance, stymying any Labour fightback on that battleground. I saw the candidate come within a whisker of getting the vote of a Brexit Party voter. Nice civil exchange of views with articulate working class voter who said he was voting BxP purely as a protest, knowing they would not win, knowing the council wasn't going to decide Brexit, knowing BxP had no policies; and knowing full-well we're a Remain party he said that if he had actually been trying to elect a councillor he would have voted for us because we'd engaged with him and had a decent idea of what the ward needed. He acknowledged the Tory was trying to do the same but was too inexperienced. An interesting snapshot of the real world of local by-elections. We do tend to try to “nationalise” activities that have their own dynamics. Of course there’s a national context that helps or hinders the ground effort but it is often not dominant. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 26, 2019 7:47:46 GMT
Certainly no Boris bounce for the Tories this week. No, but difficult to draw anything from those results. In one Gloucester ward, the result was about par without the personal vote of the deceased Conservative councillor, and in the other they came within 3 votes of a gain, which presumably would have counted as a Boris bounce?? More good Lib Dem results though. Even if three votes had swung to the Tories to allow them to capture Podsmead, it would still have been on a sharply reduced vote share. Is that a bounce? I rather doubt it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2019 7:49:49 GMT
It is always far too crude to look at votes of those possibly allied in political intent, but even if one were to add the whole Conservative vote to the whole BP vote, it still falls short of the LD victorious figure. A good LD result and a worrying showing by the BP, who demonstrate the ability to make a splash, to do us serious damage (I think it fair to say they lost us the other seat in the city) but with no realistic chance so far of winning anything themselves. This does not bode well for the next GE. Those many projections we have seen suggesting a raft of BP seat gains at a GE I see to be complete fiction. They will gain very few seats despite a substantial vote, because they don't have enough ground support, campaign experience or ability to concentrate in best areas (may not know the best areas until looking at GE results?). They are spoilers achieving nothing at all other than letting mutual opponents win! Yes. This is where your exchange with @goodoldcause2 on Farage's character and motivation is important. If he is principled I think he should acknowledge that the current Cabinet and its likely Brexit policy is just what he has asked for (other policies probably not, but BxP is predicated on Brexit over all else) and wind the party down. But notwithstanding GOC's observations, I sense that years of media stardom and a nice lifestyle paid for by politics have become something he'll be loathe to let go. We all kid ourselves that what suits us best is in fact The Right Thing. The Brexit Party has been constructed to be under Nigel Farage's absolute control, so all major decisions are his. Will he unilaterally stand his candidates down or require some kind of explicit deal with the Conservatives involving a carve-up of seats and/or provision of jobs for senior BP people? Naturally, the Tories would not contemplate this for a moment. I don't think the "nice lifestyle" is Farage's primary concern - he claims plausibly he would have earned far more in the City and politics actually involved a financial sacrifice for him. However, politics has turned him into a national figure, and that might now be more of an issue. If, hard Brexit notwithstanding, he is unable to bring himself to return like Cincinnatus to his plough, the pretext might be the terms of the post-Brexit settlement. People often forget that even if we do leave on 31 October, years of intricate negotiations with the EU lie ahead. |
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jul 26, 2019 7:50:00 GMT
Oh, I didn't realise that type of quotation of swing was banned - sorry. And "remorseless calculation" was more like "late night off-the-cuff". Most windups on this theme have not come from the Lib Dems, at least not since the mods ban. And can I say that accusing No Offence Alan of being nasty is pretty silly, as the username implies. I wonder why you are getting so sensitive when you are so near to achieving all your political objectives (or so it may seem)? Can't we just accept that we all like to swing in different ways and that's fine? |
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Post by froome on Jul 26, 2019 7:52:14 GMT
Does anyone know whether the Brexit party actually did any campaigning in these wards? It is impossible to assess their effect on the election without knowing that. And if they did, did they put forward any local policies, or purely focus on Brexit?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 26, 2019 7:57:33 GMT
That makes it 3 holds and 5 gains for the Lib Dems out of 15 results in total for July. Swinson bounce? No. Election wins based on plugging away nationally over the last two years culminating in a breakthrough in the May locals, well exploited at the Euros; and hard local campaigning in e.g Bridlington and Podsmead in previous months if not years. Swinson has a wave to ride. So the good news is that a Swinson bounce could amplify it. She needs to be seen and heard sounding calm and reasonable but firm on Brexit, looking bambi-like so that putting the boot into her seems distasteful, while Boris boxes himself into hard Brexit at all costs and Labour dither. (Cf Laura Pidcock on R4 Today yesterday about 8.45) I think she's blown it already |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 26, 2019 8:00:19 GMT
That makes it 3 holds and 5 gains for the Lib Dems out of 15 results in total for July. Swinson bounce? No. Election wins based on plugging away nationally over the last two years culminating in a breakthrough in the May locals, well exploited at the Euros; and hard local campaigning in e.g Bridlington and Podsmead in previous months if not years. Swinson has a wave to ride. So the good news is that a Swinson bounce could amplify it. She needs to be seen and heard sounding calm and reasonable but firm on Brexit, looking bambi-like so that putting the boot into her seems distasteful, while Boris boxes himself into hard Brexit at all costs and Labour dither. (Cf Laura Pidcock on R4 Today yesterday about 8.45) Yes actually I totally agree with that but selling it as a Swinson bounce can only be good! I would say though that the level of local success and its breadth across the country shows what can happen once the local hard work is put in and the national tends are favourable. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 26, 2019 8:01:47 GMT
Most windups on this theme have not come from the Lib Dems, at least not since the mods ban. And can I say that accusing No Offence Alan of being nasty is pretty silly, as the username implies. I wonder why you are getting so sensitive when you are so near to achieving all your political objectives (or so it may seem)? No Offence Alan has explained that the name derives from the number of times people have said to him "No offence, Alan ..... " I know that but it works both ways. Good jokes have more than one meaning. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 26, 2019 8:06:04 GMT
Yes. This is where your exchange with @goodoldcause2 on Farage's character and motivation is important. If he is principled I think he should acknowledge that the current Cabinet and its likely Brexit policy is just what he has asked for (other policies probably not, but BxP is predicated on Brexit over all else) and wind the party down. But notwithstanding GOC's observations, I sense that years of media stardom and a nice lifestyle paid for by politics have become something he'll be loathe to let go. We all kid ourselves that what suits us best is in fact The Right Thing. The Brexit Party has been constructed to be under Nigel Farage's absolute control, so all major decisions are his. Will he unilaterally stand his candidates down or require some kind of explicit deal with the Conservatives involving a carve-up of seats and/or provision of jobs for senior BP people? Naturally, the Tories would not contemplate this for a moment. I don't think the "nice lifestyle" is an issue for Farage - he claims plausibly he would have earned far more in the City and politics actually involved a financial sacrifice for him. However, politics has turned him into a national figure, and that might now be more of an issue. If, hard Brexit notwithstanding, he is unable to bring himself to return like Cincinnatus to his plough, the pretext might be the terms of the post-Brexit settlement. People often forget that even if we do leave on 31 October, years of intricate negotiations with the EU lie ahead. I'm not convinced by Farage's record in The City - he did OK but nothing special at a time when absolutely anyone with a public school background could coin it (there was a regular column in I think the FT - "Secret Trader" or similar - at the time by someone who did just that). But I'm damn sure he'd not have hob-mobbed with Presidents or got to spout off on the BBC and furthermore if he gave up politics now and started up again in The City it'd be tough going. When he stepped down from UKIP he didn't go back there, he went into the media i.e. made money from politics different way. I don't want to suggest he's especially venal, just that I think he'd find it a wrench to be a nobody. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 26, 2019 8:14:05 GMT
A "safe seat" has voted for the Independents in its last three outings, most recently just two months ago by a massive margin? I mean, did you even look at the past results Hartlepool is a safe Labour seat. Gloucester is a marginal area. I shouldn't have to spell this out on here. There is a little unnecessary ambiguity here centring around the use of the word "seat". Edgbaston is using it in the commonly accepted way to mean Westminster constituency. Bish is using it to mean local ward, where indeed there was a seat up for grabs. So you are both right. Whew its hard work acting as conciliator between the warring red factions.  |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 26, 2019 8:16:59 GMT
No. Election wins based on plugging away nationally over the last two years culminating in a breakthrough in the May locals, well exploited at the Euros; and hard local campaigning in e.g Bridlington and Podsmead in previous months if not years. Swinson has a wave to ride. So the good news is that a Swinson bounce could amplify it. She needs to be seen and heard sounding calm and reasonable but firm on Brexit, looking bambi-like so that putting the boot into her seems distasteful, while Boris boxes himself into hard Brexit at all costs and Labour dither. (Cf Laura Pidcock on R4 Today yesterday about 8.45) Yes actually I totally agree with that but selling it as a Swinson bounce can only be good! I would say though that the level of local success and its breadth across the country shows what can happen once the local hard work is put in and the national tends are favourable. #SwinsonSurge is I think the approved hashtag |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 26, 2019 8:29:00 GMT
Hi. As a newcomer who enjoys seeing the weekly swings between party's I today's volatile situation I do think a couple of commentators need to relax more.Calling all lib dems stupid people is not constructive And that is a rather intrusive and aggressive first post. Perhaps you will be in better humour after your exile in Siberia? Look forward to hearing from you next in say 7-years time? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2019 8:33:46 GMT
The Brexit Party has been constructed to be under Nigel Farage's absolute control, so all major decisions are his. Will he unilaterally stand his candidates down or require some kind of explicit deal with the Conservatives involving a carve-up of seats and/or provision of jobs for senior BP people? Naturally, the Tories would not contemplate this for a moment. I don't think the "nice lifestyle" is an issue for Farage - he claims plausibly he would have earned far more in the City and politics actually involved a financial sacrifice for him. However, politics has turned him into a national figure, and that might now be more of an issue. If, hard Brexit notwithstanding, he is unable to bring himself to return like Cincinnatus to his plough, the pretext might be the terms of the post-Brexit settlement. People often forget that even if we do leave on 31 October, years of intricate negotiations with the EU lie ahead. I'm not convinced by Farage's record in The City - he did OK but nothing special at a time when absolutely anyone with a public school background could coin it (there was a regular column in I think the FT - "Secret Trader" or similar - at the time by someone who did just that). But I'm damn sure he'd not have hob-mobbed with Presidents or got to spout off on the BBC and furthermore if he gave up politics now and started up again in The City it'd be tough going. When he stepped down from UKIP he didn't go back there, he went into the media i.e. made money from politics different way. I don't want to suggest he's especially venal, just that I think he'd find it a wrench to be a nobody. I think we are saying rather similar things, but who knows what he will do? "...in this sojourning of fleshly life every one carrieth his own heart, and every heart to every other heart is shut" |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 26, 2019 8:45:34 GMT
A "safe seat" has voted for the Independents in its last three outings, most recently just two months ago by a massive margin? I mean, did you even look at the past results Hartlepool is a safe Labour seat. Gloucester is a marginal area. I shouldn't have to spell this out on here. I did realise that might be what you meant after I posted tbf. My response would be that local elections are local, and looking at them in that way is more productive. |
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Post by torremark on Jul 26, 2019 8:49:26 GMT
Hi. As a newcomer who enjoys seeing the weekly swings between party's I today's volatile situation I do think a couple of commentators need to relax more.Calling all lib dems stupid people is not constructive And that is a rather intrusive and aggressive first post. Perhaps you will be in better humour after your exile in Siberia? Look forward to hearing from you next in say 7-years time? I think that’s Carlton’s routine put down to new members, makes you nervous for ten minutes but take no notice and as long as you’re not rude to anybody feel free to say what you think. |
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 26, 2019 8:51:28 GMT
Hi. As a newcomer who enjoys seeing the weekly swings between party's I today's volatile situation I do think a couple of commentators need to relax more.Calling all lib dems stupid people is not constructive And that is a rather intrusive and aggressive first post. Perhaps you will be in better humour after your exile in Siberia? Look forward to hearing from you next in say 7-years time? Wow, C43, just wow. You have surpassed yourself - and I don't mean that in a good way. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 26, 2019 8:52:10 GMT
Oh and in 2016 the Podsmead result was Lab 52 Con 48 (sound familiar?) This time, even more strikingly, LibDem+Lab+Green 52 and Con+BxP+UKIP 48  |
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