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Post by yellowperil on Jul 26, 2019 0:28:46 GMT
Labour just holds on in safe seat and loses badly in marginal. Not good. A "safe seat" has voted for the Independents in its last three outings, most recently just two months ago by a massive margin? I mean, did you even look at the past results  Yes only in a pretty technical sense was that a Labour "hold" - the reality was it was more a Labour gain from Independent. But hey its Hartlepool, and all the rules go out the window. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 26, 2019 0:38:39 GMT
Three cheers for the Brexit party! Can they stand every week please? Also three cheers for the three voters who spoiled their ballots, given the margin of victory. If the Brexit party had done just a little bit better, they could have ensured a more comfortable win for the Lib Dems over the Tories, and pushed Labour down to fourth in a seat they were defending. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 26, 2019 6:01:20 GMT
It's 7.8% - Labour were 4% ahead previously so a 2% swing would mean they are level pegging now |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 26, 2019 6:14:08 GMT
Well, that was a really bad result in Podsmead for Labour. Down 34% and lib dems 30% from nowhere. A smaller swing from Con to BXP stopped them gaining.
Andrew said this ward is largely council estate as i recall. Probably most of this was normal Lib Dem pavement politics in a place where that was a pleasant surprise to the electorate. However the current chaos in the Labour Party cannot help and if i were a Labour supporter I would really be thinking Corbyn is a liability now.
Lib Dem vote up 16% in Barnswood. Good result but very predictable given the polls and the Euros.
Happy to see the Greens increase their vote and beat the far right in Hartlepool. Probably the only part of the result with any significance outside Hartlepool.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 26, 2019 6:16:24 GMT
That makes it 3 holds and 5 gains for the Lib Dems out of 15 results in total for July. Swinson bounce? Certainly no Boris bounce for the Tories this week. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 26, 2019 6:35:07 GMT
1% swing Lab to Con - the Boris boost. Nutter. How is it David that a perfectly reasonable discussion on the structure and theory of 'Swing' conducted without any personal references let alone prsonal abuse, is terminated at the request of Admin and the Mods, with which we comply, yet ever after a group of LDs are permitted to indulge in blatant gormless trolling on the subject,remorselessly calculated as a permanent wind-up and to try and get some of us to re-enter in defence of common sense and truth, and then of course we can be abused again and possibly banned for not observing the request? It seems that the LDs have some sort of let or pass on this subject. They are permitted to be stupid and to blatantly troll, result by result, and we are obliged to sit quietly and just accept the moronic abuse? Why is that do you think? Why are the LDs such very nasty people? Why do the Mods do nothing? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 26, 2019 6:39:21 GMT
How is it David that a perfectly reasonable discussion on the structure and theory of 'Swing' conducted without any personal references let alone prsonal abuse, is terminated at the request of Admin and the Mods, with which we comply, yet ever after a group of LDs are permitted to indulge in blatant gormless trolling on the subject,remorselessly calculated as a permanent wind-up and to try and get some of us to re-enter in defence of common sense and truth, and then of course we can be abused again and possibly banned for not observing the request? It seems that the LDs have some sort of let or pass on this subject. They are permitted to be stupid and to blatantly troll, result by result, and we are obliged to sit quietly and just accept the moronic abuse? Why is that do you think? Why are the LDs such very nasty people? Why do the Mods do nothing? Oh, I didn't realise that type of quotation of swing was banned - sorry. And "remorseless calculation" was more like "late night off-the-cuff". |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 26, 2019 6:42:51 GMT
That makes it 3 holds and 5 gains for the Lib Dems out of 15 results in total for July. Swinson bounce? Certainly no Boris bounce for the Tories this week. No, but difficult to draw anything from those results. In one Gloucester ward, the result was about par without the personal vote of the deceased Conservative councillor, and in the other they came within 3 votes of a gain, which presumably would have counted as a Boris bounce?? More good Lib Dem results though. |
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Post by raskolnikov on Jul 26, 2019 6:48:36 GMT
Hi. As a newcomer who enjoys seeing the weekly swings between party's I today's volatile situation I do think a couple of commentators need to relax more.Calling all lib dems stupid people is not constructive
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 26, 2019 6:50:38 GMT
How is it David that a perfectly reasonable discussion on the structure and theory of 'Swing' conducted without any personal references let alone prsonal abuse, is terminated at the request of Admin and the Mods, with which we comply, yet ever after a group of LDs are permitted to indulge in blatant gormless trolling on the subject,remorselessly calculated as a permanent wind-up and to try and get some of us to re-enter in defence of common sense and truth, and then of course we can be abused again and possibly banned for not observing the request? It seems that the LDs have some sort of let or pass on this subject. They are permitted to be stupid and to blatantly troll, result by result, and we are obliged to sit quietly and just accept the moronic abuse? Why is that do you think? Why are the LDs such very nasty people? Why do the Mods do nothing? Oh, I didn't realise that type of quotation of swing was banned - sorry. And "remorseless calculation" was more like "late night off-the-cuff". Honestly Alan the whole thing just got annoyingly tedious and my heart sank a bit when I saw the comment. The joke has been flogged to death. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 26, 2019 6:54:37 GMT
It is always far too crude to look at votes of those possibly allied in political intent, but even if one were to add the whole Conservative vote to the whole BP vote, it still falls short of the LD victorious figure. A good LD result and a worrying showing by the BP, who demonstrate the ability to make a splash, to do us serious damage (I think it fair to say they lost us the other seat in the city) but with no realistic chance so far of winning anything themselves. This does not bode well for the next GE. Those many projections we have seen suggesting a raft of BP seat gains at a GE I see to be complete fiction. They will gain very few seats despite a substantial vote, because they don't have enough ground support, campaign experience or ability to concentrate in best areas (may not know the best areas until looking at GE results?). They are spoilers achieving nothing at all other than letting mutual opponents win! |
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 26, 2019 6:54:58 GMT
How is it David that a perfectly reasonable discussion on the structure and theory of 'Swing' conducted without any personal references let alone prsonal abuse, is terminated at the request of Admin and the Mods, with which we comply, yet ever after a group of LDs are permitted to indulge in blatant gormless trolling on the subject,remorselessly calculated as a permanent wind-up and to try and get some of us to re-enter in defence of common sense and truth, and then of course we can be abused again and possibly banned for not observing the request? It seems that the LDs have some sort of let or pass on this subject. They are permitted to be stupid and to blatantly troll, result by result, and we are obliged to sit quietly and just accept the moronic abuse? Why is that do you think? Why are the LDs such very nasty people? Why do the Mods do nothing? Gloucester, Barnwood. Swing 0.45% Lab to Con. The Boris bounce. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 26, 2019 7:03:39 GMT
It is always far too crude to look at votes of those possibly allied in political intent, but even if one were to add the whole Conservative vote to the whole BP vote, it still falls short of the LD victorious figure. A good LD result and a worrying showing by the BP, who demonstrate the ability to make a splash, to do us serious damage (I think it fair to say they lost us the other seat in the city) but with no realistic chance so far of winning anything themselves. This does not bode well for the next GE. Those many projections we have seen suggesting a raft of BP seat gains at a GE I see to be complete fiction. They will gain very few seats despite a substantial vote, because they don't have enough ground support, campaign experience or ability to concentrate in best areas (may not know the best areas until looking at GE results?). They are spoilers achieving nothing at all other than letting mutual opponents win! yup. Hooray for them |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 26, 2019 7:04:08 GMT
Well, that was a really bad result in Podsmead for Labour. Down 34% and lib dems 30% from nowhere. A smaller swing from Con to BXP stopped them gaining. Andrew said this ward is largely council estate as i recall. Probably most of this was normal Lib Dem pavement politics in a place where that was a pleasant surprise to the electorate. However the current chaos in the Labour Party cannot help and if i were a Labour supporter I would really be thinking Corbyn is a liability now. Lib Dem vote up 16% in Barnswood. Good result but very predictable given the polls and the Euros. Happy to see the Greens increase their vote and beat the far right in Hartlepool. Probably the only part of the result with any significance outside Hartlepool. Exactly so, and the Conservative came so close because he did the same. We did it better than him because he's in his teens whereas our bloke is a former mayor of Gloucester and knows how to (and anyway, it's what we do best.) The vacancy was due to "resignation" but AIUI the resignation was to pre-empt disqualification for non-attendance, stymying any Labour fightback on that battleground. I saw the candidate come within a whisker of getting the vote of a Brexit Party voter. Nice civil exchange of views with articulate working class voter who said he was voting BxP purely as a protest, knowing they would not win, knowing the council wasn't going to decide Brexit, knowing BxP had no policies; and knowing full-well we're a Remain party he said that if he had actually been trying to elect a councillor he would have voted for us because we'd engaged with him and had a decent idea of what the ward needed. He acknowledged the Tory was trying to do the same but was too inexperienced. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 26, 2019 7:06:20 GMT
How is it David that a perfectly reasonable discussion on the structure and theory of 'Swing' conducted without any personal references let alone prsonal abuse, is terminated at the request of Admin and the Mods, with which we comply, yet ever after a group of LDs are permitted to indulge in blatant gormless trolling on the subject,remorselessly calculated as a permanent wind-up and to try and get some of us to re-enter in defence of common sense and truth, and then of course we can be abused again and possibly banned for not observing the request? It seems that the LDs have some sort of let or pass on this subject. They are permitted to be stupid and to blatantly troll, result by result, and we are obliged to sit quietly and just accept the moronic abuse? Why is that do you think? Why are the LDs such very nasty people? Why do the Mods do nothing? Oh, I didn't realise that type of quotation of swing was banned - sorry. And "remorseless calculation" was more like "late night off-the-cuff". Don't come that duplicitous nonsense NOA, you knew exactly what you were doing. To quote a false swing is not 'a-late-night-off-the-cuff' remark........It is blatant and deliberate trolling. There was NO Conservative candidate and thus cannot have been a Conservative-Labour swing. You knew that. You were trolling to cause offence and to cause an effect despite their being a ban on discussing swing. Don't even attempt denying it. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 26, 2019 7:11:38 GMT
It is always far too crude to look at votes of those possibly allied in political intent, but even if one were to add the whole Conservative vote to the whole BP vote, it still falls short of the LD victorious figure. A good LD result and a worrying showing by the BP, who demonstrate the ability to make a splash, to do us serious damage (I think it fair to say they lost us the other seat in the city) but with no realistic chance so far of winning anything themselves. This does not bode well for the next GE. Those many projections we have seen suggesting a raft of BP seat gains at a GE I see to be complete fiction. They will gain very few seats despite a substantial vote, because they don't have enough ground support, campaign experience or ability to concentrate in best areas (may not know the best areas until looking at GE results?). They are spoilers achieving nothing at all other than letting mutual opponents win! Yes. This is where your exchange with @goodoldcause2 on Farage's character and motivation is important. If he is principled I think he should acknowledge that the current Cabinet and its likely Brexit policy is just what he has asked for (other policies probably not, but BxP is predicated on Brexit over all else) and wind the party down. But notwithstanding GOC's observations, I sense that years of media stardom and a nice lifestyle paid for by politics have become something he'll be loathe to let go. We all kid ourselves that what suits us best is in fact The Right Thing. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 26, 2019 7:12:00 GMT
How is it David that a perfectly reasonable discussion on the structure and theory of 'Swing' conducted without any personal references let alone prsonal abuse, is terminated at the request of Admin and the Mods, with which we comply, yet ever after a group of LDs are permitted to indulge in blatant gormless trolling on the subject,remorselessly calculated as a permanent wind-up and to try and get some of us to re-enter in defence of common sense and truth, and then of course we can be abused again and possibly banned for not observing the request? It seems that the LDs have some sort of let or pass on this subject. They are permitted to be stupid and to blatantly troll, result by result, and we are obliged to sit quietly and just accept the moronic abuse? Why is that do you think? Why are the LDs such very nasty people? Why do the Mods do nothing? Oh, I didn't realise that type of quotation of swing was banned - sorry. And "remorseless calculation" was more like "late night off-the-cuff". Most windups on this theme have not come from the Lib Dems, at least not since the mods ban. And can I say that accusing No Offence Alan of being nasty is pretty silly, as the username implies. I wonder why you are getting so sensitive when you are so near to achieving all your political objectives (or so it may seem)? |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 26, 2019 7:20:21 GMT
Three cheers for the Brexit party! Can they stand every week please? Also three cheers for the three voters who spoiled their ballots, given the margin of victory. It wasn't the spoilt ballots Adam (they might have been fr anyone or no one) it was the BP to whom you owe the victory. No BP and we would have won that. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 26, 2019 7:23:35 GMT
That makes it 3 holds and 5 gains for the Lib Dems out of 15 results in total for July. Swinson bounce? No. Election wins based on plugging away nationally over the last two years culminating in a breakthrough in the May locals, well exploited at the Euros; and hard local campaigning in e.g Bridlington and Podsmead in previous months if not years. Swinson has a wave to ride. So the good news is that a Swinson bounce could amplify it. She needs to be seen and heard sounding calm and reasonable but firm on Brexit, looking bambi-like so that putting the boot into her seems distasteful, while Boris boxes himself into hard Brexit at all costs and Labour dither. (Cf Laura Pidcock on R4 Today yesterday about 8.45) |
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middyman
Conservative
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Post by middyman on Jul 26, 2019 7:26:43 GMT
Oh, I didn't realise that type of quotation of swing was banned - sorry. And "remorseless calculation" was more like "late night off-the-cuff". Most windups on this theme have not come from the Lib Dems, at least not since the mods ban. And can I say that accusing No Offence Alan of being nasty is pretty silly, as the username implies. I wonder why you are getting so sensitive when you are so near to achieving all your political objectives (or so it may seem)? No Offence Alan has explained that the name derives from the number of times people have said to him "No offence, Alan ..... " |
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