mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,716
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Post by mboy on Jun 21, 2019 12:26:32 GMT
Is that 3 gains this week? Been a while since we had that many!
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 21, 2019 12:41:00 GMT
Is that 3 gains this week? Been a while since we had that many! It is, which with some fairly substantial advances to second place as well makes it a pretty good week. Has anyone seen the full result from Newent & Taynton? It isn't up on the FODC site yet. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jun 21, 2019 12:42:56 GMT
Is that 3 gains this week? Been a while since we had that many! It is, which with some fairly substantial advances to second place as well makes it a pretty good week. Has anyone seen the full result from Newent & Taynton? It isn't up on the FODC site yet. Ind Gooch 551 LD Moseley 462 LD Vesma 423 Con Lawton 404 Con Heathfield 392 Grn Rhodes 306 Grn Price 282 LD Martin 266 Grn Back 251 Con Winter 217 Ind Wood 175 Ind Holmes 170 Lab Sampson 110 |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jun 21, 2019 12:52:52 GMT
By top vote I make it
Ind Gooch 25.3%
LD 21.2%
Con 18.6%
Grn 14.1%
Ind Wood 8.0%
Ind Holmes 7.8%
Lab 5.1%
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2019 12:53:27 GMT
It is, which with some fairly substantial advances to second place as well makes it a pretty good week. Has anyone seen the full result from Newent & Taynton? It isn't up on the FODC site yet. Ind Gooch 551 LD Moseley 462 LD Vesma 423 Con Lawton 404 Con Heathfield 392 Grn Rhodes 306 Grn Price 282 LD Martin 266 Grn Back 251 Con Winter 217 Ind Wood 175 Ind Holmes 170 Lab Sampson 110 On average vote, and treating the 3 Independents as one slate, as we did in the prediction comp, that is LD 27.2% Con 24% Ind 21.2% Green 19.8% Lab 7.8% |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2019 12:59:08 GMT
For the purposes of the Prediction competition the three Independents are considered as a slate, and the averages method is used, which makes it:
L Dem 27.2
C 24.0
Ind 21.2
GP 19.8
Lab 7.8
Alternately using the total vote method, and considering three Independent separately:
L Dem 28.7
C 25.3
GP 20.9
Ind Gooch 13.7
Ind Wood 4.4
Ind Holmes 4.2
Lab 2.7
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 21, 2019 13:03:29 GMT
Forest of Dean Newent & Taynton - 1 Independent, 2 Liberal Democrats elected | Party | 2019 first | 2019 second | 2019 third | 2019 votes
average | 2019 share
first | 2019 share
average | | Independent | 551 | 175 | 170 | 299 | 30.1% | 21.2% | Liberal Democrat | 462 | 423 | 266 | 384
| 25.2% | 27.2% | Conservative | 404 | 392 | 217 | 338 | 22.0% | 24.0% | Green | 306 | 282 | 251 | 280 | 16.7% | 19.8% | Labour | 110 |
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| 110 | 6.0% | 7.8% | Total votes | 1,833 | 1,272 | 904 | 1,411 |
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New seat Council now 15 Independent, 10 Conservative, 6 Green, 5 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat Isle of Wight, Whippingham & Osborne - Conservative gain from Independent sitting as Labour| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Conservative | 318 | 35.1% | +9.3% | -3.0% | -2.3% | Liberal Democrat | 179 | 19.8% | +14.5% | from nowhere | -1.5% | Independent (Paler) | 167 | 18.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 141 | 15.6% | +3.5% | from nowhere | +10.1% | Island Independent | 60 | 6.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 41 | 4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independent 1 |
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| -57.0% | -61.9% |
| | Previous Independent 2 |
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| -36.0% | Total votes | 906 |
| 75% | 87% | 82% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 25 Conservative, 8 Island Independents, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Group, 2 1957 Group, 1 Independent
Merton, Cannon Hill - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average | | Liberal Democrat | 1,060 | 35.0% | +24.3% | +25.5% | +28.3% | +29.3% | Labour | 875 | 28.9% | -13.9% | -14.9% | -15.9% | -16.6% | Conservative | 867 | 28.6% | -14.2% | -14.1% | -4.0% | -3.5% | Green | 158 | 5.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 68 | 2.2% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -13.6% | -14.4% | Total votes | 3,028 |
| 79% | 84% | 80% | 84% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~ 19% / 20% since 2018 and ~ 22% / 23% since 2014
Council now 33 Labour, 17 Conservative, 7 Liberal Democrat, 3 Resident
Newport Port Talbot, Pelenna - Independent hold
| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2008 | Independent Hurley | 251 | 47.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Plaid Cymru | 120 | 22.9% | -5.3% | -18.9% | from nowhere | Independent Hughes | 105 | 20.0% | -4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 43 | 8.2% | -11.0% | -3.6% | -53.9% | Liberal Democrat | 6 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -36.7% | Previous Independent |
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| -28.4% | -46.4% |
| Total votes | 525 |
| 112% | 97% | 117% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 40 Labour, 15 Plaid Cymru, 8 Independent
Salford, Walkden South - Labour gain from Conservative
| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 802 | 39.5% | -11.0% | -4.2% | +1.6% | +4.0% | Conservative | 654 | 32.2% | -7.8% | -6.7% | -9.4% | -5.8% | Green | 254 | 12.5% | +7.0% | +7.9% | +7.9% | +7.9% | Liberal Democrat | 173 | 8.5% | +4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 148 | 7.3% | from nowhere | -4.7% | -7.1% | -12.8% | TUSC |
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| -0.9% | -1.5% |
| English Democrats |
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| -1.8% | Total votes | 2,031 |
| 70% | 62% | 39% | 65% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 1½% since 2018 but Conservative to Labour 1¼% since 2016, 5½% since 2015 and ~ 5% since 2014 Council now 51 Labour, 8 Conservative, 1 Independent South Ribble, Farington West - Conservatives hold both seats
| Party | 2019 first | 2019 second | 2019 votes
average | 2019 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 536 | 497 | 517 | 62.4% | +10.4% | +7.9% | Labour | 246 | 171 | 209 | 25.2% | -10.1% | -9.5% | Liberal Democrat | 114 | 91 | 103 | 12.4% | -0.3% | +1.6% | Total votes | 896 | 759 | 828 |
| 41% | 46% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 10½% / 8¾% since 2015
Council now 23 Conservative, 22 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat
Wandsworth, Furzedown - Labour hold
| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Labour | 1,811 | 49.0% | -14.7% | -15.5% | -8.3% | -7.6% | Liberal Democrat | 887 | 24.0% | +18.7% | +19.7% | +19.3% | +19.1% | Conservative | 681 | 18.4% | -3.0% | -2.8% | -2.0% | -1.8% | Green | 318 | 8.6% | -1.0% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.5% | UKIP |
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| -5.6% | -5.9% | TUSC |
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| -2.2% | -2.3% | Total votes | 3,697 |
| 67% | 71% | 68% | 72% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~ 16¾% / 17½% since 2018 and 13¾% / 13¼% since 2014
Council now 33 Conservative, 26 Labour, 1 Independent
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 21, 2019 13:31:11 GMT
It is, which with some fairly substantial advances to second place as well makes it a pretty good week. Has anyone seen the full result from Newent & Taynton? It isn't up on the FODC site yet. Ind Gooch 551 LD Moseley 462 LD Vesma 423 Con Lawton 404 Con Heathfield 392 Grn Rhodes 306 Grn Price 282 LD Martin 266 Grn Back 251 Con Winter 217 Ind Wood 175 Ind Holmes 170 Lab Sampson 110 It does begger the question why the big drop in the vote for the third placed Liberal Democrat candidate? |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2019 13:34:58 GMT
Ind Gooch 551 LD Moseley 462 LD Vesma 423 Con Lawton 404 Con Heathfield 392 Grn Rhodes 306 Grn Price 282 LD Martin 266 Grn Back 251 Con Winter 217 Ind Wood 175 Ind Holmes 170 Lab Sampson 110 I does begger the question why the big drop in the vote for the third placed Liberal Democrat candidate? Assume they weren't as well known as the alphabetical rule hasn't worked here |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2019 13:42:56 GMT
The voters obeyed the Green order here too!
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 21, 2019 14:01:42 GMT
Why? I assume he served his time? Rehabilitation and change doesn't happen by restricting people from involvement in everyday life. No redemption for nonces I agree, children suffered as a result of what he was viewing. I wouldn’t want that man to knock on my door canvassing. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2019 14:10:41 GMT
I agree, children suffered as a result of what he was viewing. I wouldn’t want that man to knock on my door canvassing. Most crimes have victims. All the more reason for reintegrating people back into society. Best way to avoid recidivism. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 21, 2019 16:56:14 GMT
Not worth the risk. Ever. Nonsense. The fact is that we don't have state execution of people, and in many cases the activity was production of images rather than actual activity - so after the prison sentence they are going to back in the community. If you want to encourage them to repeat the offence then not encouraging and facilitating rehabilitation is very likely to facilitate it, even more than with other offences, although its a general rule which can be applied across the board. You can never be sure whether you've wiped someone's mind of that filth. You either sideline them from society or you sideline children |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 21, 2019 17:07:14 GMT
With the caveat that I’m not familiar with the case at all, it’s worth putting a few points into the discussion. I generally agree (uniquely perhaps) with Merseymike that our criminal justice system is predicated on both punishment and rehabilitation, and so if he has completed the punishment side, and has been allowed into the community, he must not be considered a direct risk to children. There is also little evidence of people who view low grade pornography online going on to abuse children. In my experience of people who are required to sign the Sex Offenders Register there are usually conditions attached, most obviously not being alone in a predominantly child oriented environment. In terms of leafleting - did he go alone, potentially risky to himself, or was he part of a mass leaflet/canvass, in which case the opportunities to offend are minimal. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2019 18:28:53 GMT
Nonsense. The fact is that we don't have state execution of people, and in many cases the activity was production of images rather than actual activity - so after the prison sentence they are going to back in the community. If you want to encourage them to repeat the offence then not encouraging and facilitating rehabilitation is very likely to facilitate it, even more than with other offences, although its a general rule which can be applied across the board. You can never be sure whether you've wiped someone's mind of that filth. You either sideline them from society or you sideline children They aren't sidelined from society, because they are back living in it. The best way to ensure re-offending is to increase isolation and for them to have nothing to do. Not that hard to work out. So, if you want to see a return to offending, thats the best way to ensure it happens. |
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Post by lbarnes on Jun 21, 2019 18:46:09 GMT
I suspect he will be less pleased when he finds out disgraced former Lib Dem leader of Kingston Council, convicted child pornographer, Derek Osbourne, helped out: It is so obviously a hoax and only to be believed by those who want to believe it. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jun 21, 2019 20:50:59 GMT
I suspect he will be less pleased when he finds out disgraced former Lib Dem leader of Kingston Council, convicted child pornographer, Derek Osbourne, helped out: Cannon Park? |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 21, 2019 21:03:15 GMT
The voters obeyed the Green order here too! Has to happen occasionally. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 21, 2019 22:20:24 GMT
The voters obeyed the Green order here too! Has to happen occasionally. Green voters and activists would appear to be the most prepared for an eventual move to STV in local government, where vote-balancing would become more important... (... as long as there weren't mass under-nomination, which is what we know happens in practice.) |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 21, 2019 22:27:37 GMT
By top vote I make it Ind Gooch 25.3% LD 21.2% Con 18.6% Grn 14.1% Ind Wood 8.0% Ind Holmes 7.8% Lab 5.1% That's a stonking result for us in not previously encouraging territory. |
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