Focaldata

[hullenedge]

[cogload]

No sign of either the Dday farce whacking Sunak or Davey's stunts cutting through tbh.

Perhaps we should just draw stumps now and hold the vote on Thursday?

[aidypiez]

Jun 11, 2024 16:04:58 GMT cogload said:

No sign of either the Dday farce whacking Sunak or Davey's stunts cutting through tbh.

Perhaps we should just draw stumps now and hold the vote on Thursday?

Check Yougov

[cogload]

Jun 11, 2024 16:07:08 GMT aidypiez said:

Jun 11, 2024 16:04:58 GMT cogload said:

No sign of either the Dday farce whacking Sunak or Davey's stunts cutting through tbh.

Perhaps we should just draw stumps now and hold the vote on Thursday?

Check Yougov

Aye. One poll.

[hullenedge]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Focaldata have apparently done an MRP:

[johng]

Jun 24, 2024 13:24:14 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Focaldata have apparently done an MRP:

Is that 30/32 of Welsh seats to Labour?  Would be decent to see.

Edit to add that implied shares for the MRP are:

Labour - 41.4%

Conservatives - 23.0%

ReformUK - 15.5%

Lib Dems - 11.3%

Greens - 5.2%

SNP - 2.5%

Others - 1.0%

[carolus]

Full writeup:
www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

[CatholicLeft]

Again, this suggestion that Exmouth and Exeter East is a top target for Reform, with them just behind the Tories. This inability to look at the fact that Claire Wright was a centre-left Independent whose support is more likely to swing behind the Lib Dems than Reform, is a sign of the methodology's weakness. Also, no reflection of the strength of Zadrozny in Ashfield, although they haven't made a mad prediction for Anderson here.

[iain]

Looking through the details this looks like one of the more sensible attempts.

[Pete Whitehead]

I wish they wouldn't use that fuckwitted style of map where there's no way of telling which seat is which

[kevinf]

Jun 24, 2024 16:45:34 GMT iain said:

Looking through the details this looks like one of the more sensible attempts.

What, with both Isle of Wight seats going Labour?

[manchesterman]

Jun 24, 2024 16:37:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Again, this suggestion that Exmouth and Exeter East is a top target for Reform, with them just behind the Tories. This inability to look at the fact that Claire Wright was a centre-left Independent whose support is more likely to swing behind the Lib Dems than Reform, is a sign of the methodology's weakness. Also, no reflection of the strength of Zadrozny in Ashfield, although they haven't made a mad prediction for Anderson here.

Indeed Claire Wright has already endorsed the LD candidate, has she not?

[johng]

Jun 24, 2024 16:37:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Again, this suggestion that Exmouth and Exeter East is a top target for Reform, with them just behind the Tories. This inability to look at the fact that Claire Wright was a centre-left Independent whose support is more likely to swing behind the Lib Dems than Reform, is a sign of the methodology's weakness. Also, no reflection of the strength of Zadrozny in Ashfield, although they haven't made a mad prediction for Anderson here.

It's an MRP, not an individual constituency poll.

It's simply an enhanced universal swing model. Nothing more, nothing less.

It's totally useless with independents and is really poor for looking at minor parties like Reform and the Greens.

The model likely has no idea who Claire Wright is and whether she was left, centre, right or all three. Like it has zero ability to predict Golloway, Corbyn or similar and relatively poor ability to predict the result in Clacton or Ashfield..

Even if they did have those abilities, models are devised by humans and models can be wrong.

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 24, 2024 18:31:02 GMT johng said:

Jun 24, 2024 16:37:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Again, this suggestion that Exmouth and Exeter East is a top target for Reform, with them just behind the Tories. This inability to look at the fact that Claire Wright was a centre-left Independent whose support is more likely to swing behind the Lib Dems than Reform, is a sign of the methodology's weakness. Also, no reflection of the strength of Zadrozny in Ashfield, although they haven't made a mad prediction for Anderson here.

It's an MRP, not an individual constituency poll.

It's simply an enhanced universal swing model. Nothing more, nothing less.

It's totally useless with independents and is really poor for looking at minor parties like Reform and the Greens.

The model likely has no idea who Claire Wright is and whether she was left, centre, right or all three. Like it has zero ability to predict Golloway, Corbyn or similar and relatively poor ability to predict the result in Clacton or Ashfield..

Even if they did have those abilities, models are devised by humans and models can be wrong.

I am aware of these things, but my OCD brain would make me look at stand out results and modify them.

[hullenedge]

Jun 24, 2024 16:46:44 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I wish they wouldn't use that fuckwitted style of map where there's no way of telling which seat is which

A decent Hex map here, admittedly an academic and not a pollster:-

[edgbaston]

Jun 24, 2024 18:31:02 GMT johng said:

Jun 24, 2024 16:37:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Again, this suggestion that Exmouth and Exeter East is a top target for Reform, with them just behind the Tories. This inability to look at the fact that Claire Wright was a centre-left Independent whose support is more likely to swing behind the Lib Dems than Reform, is a sign of the methodology's weakness. Also, no reflection of the strength of Zadrozny in Ashfield, although they haven't made a mad prediction for Anderson here.

It's an MRP, not an individual constituency poll.

It's simply an enhanced universal swing model. Nothing more, nothing less.

It's totally useless with independents and is really poor for looking at minor parties like Reform and the Greens.

The model likely has no idea who Claire Wright is and whether she was left, centre, right or all three. Like it has zero ability to predict Golloway, Corbyn or similar and relatively poor ability to predict the result in Clacton or Ashfield..

Even if they did have those abilities, models are devised by humans and models can be wrong.

It’s genuinely like kids who have got a new toy with these pollsters and MRPs

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 25, 2024 15:06:04 GMT edgbaston said:

Jun 24, 2024 18:31:02 GMT johng said:

It's an MRP, not an individual constituency poll.

It's simply an enhanced universal swing model. Nothing more, nothing less.

It's totally useless with independents and is really poor for looking at minor parties like Reform and the Greens.

The model likely has no idea who Claire Wright is and whether she was left, centre, right or all three. Like it has zero ability to predict Golloway, Corbyn or similar and relatively poor ability to predict the result in Clacton or Ashfield..

Even if they did have those abilities, models are devised by humans and models can be wrong.

It’s genuinely like kids who have got a new toy with these pollsters and MRPs

a toy that currently at times feels like it's made in Taiwan

[John Chanin]

Jun 24, 2024 16:45:34 GMT iain said:

Looking through the details this looks like one of the more sensible attempts.

I listened to the online presentation by James Kanagasooriam (with questions from the audience).  It gave more detail about the process, admitted that the data was quite old, addressed the Exmouth question (sort of), had a section on how and why they might be wrong, and was very interesting.  Focaldata clearly took the exercise seriously, unlike some of the chancers, and were discussing why their results are different from YouGov.  I am therefore inclined to take some notice of them.

JK said that this stuff was all available on line, but if anyone wants to listen to the presentation, pm me and I'll send you the link.

[cogload]