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Post by carolus on Jun 6, 2019 10:28:23 GMT
Haven't heard of the outfit before, and I don't think they're BPC registered. So I suggest taking this more as fun than particularly serious.
They appear to have done an MRP model and got the following:
Lab 24.8 BXP 22.9 Con 21.7 LD 17.6
Which they believe gives seats:
Lab 251 BXP 135 Con 132 SNP 55 LD 53
Fieldwork 17/5-30/5
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Jun 6, 2019 10:55:51 GMT
Haven't heard of the outfit before, and I don't think they're BPC registered. So I suggest taking this more as fun than particularly serious. They appear to have done an MRP model and got the following: Lab 24.8 BXP 22.9 Con 21.7 LD 17.6 Which they believe gives seats: Lab 251 BXP 135 Con 132 SNP 55 LD 53 Fieldwork 17/5-30/5 OK. Those seat numbers are interesting! If we use the UKIP MEP group as a proxy, with 135 Brexit Party MPs, that suggests about 70 defections over a five year term. I'd guess the Conservatives would be the second largest party within weeks! Also not sure I agree with the MRP assumptions that Brexit gains would be mainly from the Conservative - surely there are real opportunities for them in the north. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 6, 2019 11:45:48 GMT
There are, but this gets exaggerated by pundits that assume the entire "North" replicates Hartlepool or Rotherham.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2019 12:43:17 GMT
I like MRP immensely but the euros was rubbish
tbf it did say 'The Labour Party loses several seats in strong leave-voting areas, such as
Stoke-on-Trent North, Dudley North, Crewe and Nantwich and Ashfield to the
Brexit Party.'
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Post by carolus on Sept 2, 2019 15:46:20 GMT
They've done another one, comissioned by Conservative group for Europe.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Focaldata
Sept 2, 2019 19:38:35 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2019 19:38:35 GMT
This would suggest a 1% swing to the Tories from Labour
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 3, 2019 9:03:45 GMT
Very annoying to publish such polls with no data
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Sept 3, 2019 11:02:38 GMT
And on that basis it would be touch and go if the DUP could prop up the government - all down to a few seats... and if polls in the North of Ireland are to be believed the DUP may lose seats
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Focaldata
Sept 11, 2019 8:54:24 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2019 8:54:24 GMT
Another model from focal data. Marginally better for the Tories worse for Labour.
Some shout outs to seats changing hands:
Ashfield to Tories
Aberdeen to SNP
Lewes to Lib Dems
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland to Labour
Kensington to Tories
Warrington and Lemington Spa to Tories
Thurrock to Labour
All in all what a mess
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,069
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Post by jamie on Sept 11, 2019 10:08:43 GMT
Some shout outs to seats changing hands: Ashfield to Tories Middlesbrough South and Cleveland to Labour Kensington to Tories Warrington and Lemington Spa to Tories Thurrock to Labour I assume this is from regional subsamples? Labour lose Remain seats to the Tories while trading Brexity seats would certainly be counter to the narrative of a ‘Brexit election’. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Focaldata
Sept 11, 2019 10:26:06 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2019 10:26:06 GMT
Some shout outs to seats changing hands: Ashfield to Tories Middlesbrough South and Cleveland to Labour Kensington to Tories Warrington and Lemington Spa to Tories Thurrock to Labour I assume this is from regional subsamples? Labour lose Remain seats to the Tories while trading Brexity seats would certainly be counter to the narrative of a ‘Brexit election’. no this is an MRP model. The gains are based on constituency projections |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 12, 2019 0:23:49 GMT
Warrington and Lemington Spa to Tories Do you mean Warwick and Leamington? That would presumably be the result of voters in a strongly Remain constituency moving from Labour to Lib Dem, allowing the Tories to come through the middle.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 30, 2019 21:04:38 GMT
Best for Britain (September/October) With 30% and 40% of remain voters tactical voters
CON 364 - 308 - 276
LAB 189 - 233 - 255
SNP 52 - 52 - 52
LIB 23 -34 - 44
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 30, 2019 21:07:37 GMT
Best for Britain (September/October) With 30% and 40% of remain voters tactical voters CON 364 - 308 - 276 LAB 189 - 233 - 255 SNP 52 - 52 - 52 LIB 23 -34 - 44 The odds of anywhere near 30% of remain voters being tactical voters in constituencies where it makes a difference and making the correct tactical choice for their constituency is fairly low. |
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Focaldata
Oct 31, 2019 11:00:01 GMT
via mobile
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 31, 2019 11:00:01 GMT
These polls all look rum.
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wallington
Green
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Post by wallington on Oct 31, 2019 15:21:46 GMT
They've done another one, comissioned by Conservative group for Europe.
MRP showing huge Lib Dem gains.... |
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Focaldata
Oct 31, 2019 15:37:08 GMT
via mobile
Post by carolus on Oct 31, 2019 15:37:08 GMT
They've done another one, comissioned by Conservative group for Europe.
MRP showing huge Lib Dem gains.... Sorry, did you mean to quote me? The model I mentioned in that post was from several months ago. AFAIK their most recent modelling for BestForBritain hasn't yet been published in its entirety. |
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Post by afleitch on Nov 1, 2019 20:20:08 GMT
You can get individual constituency results for England and Wales, but you have to search them individually.
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Nov 1, 2019 22:21:18 GMT
Has anyone collated the Focaldata MRP poll seat by seat? The Best for Britian site is pure garbage and I just want to see what they say for each seat.
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 2, 2019 1:54:46 GMT
You can get individual constituency results for England and Wales, but you have to search them individually. There is a (slightly) more efficient way. The images giving the graphs by constituency are labelled in a very logical way. For example, Chippenham is here: www.getvoting.org/charts/E14000635_1.png. Edit the 0635 for other constituencies across England - Aldershot is 0530 and York Outer is 1062. The 1 can be changed to a 2 which gives the results for tactical voting. Welsh seats may be accessed via: www.getvoting.org/charts/W07000041_1.png, with the number varying from 41 to 80. If you want to look up the code for a constituency, the data for that is here: geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/5acf8624d96046c690f959ae4ec28263_0/data. You can search for a constituency by clicking on the filter option in the second column. |
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