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Post by matureleft on Dec 27, 2021 9:38:23 GMT
Bath Labour support was thought sufficiently substantial to book Starmer in for a pub visit there to, presumably, assist Dan Norris in his mayoral bid.
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Focaldata
Dec 27, 2021 10:00:29 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 27, 2021 10:00:29 GMT
Bath Labour support was thought sufficiently substantial to book Starmer in for a pub visit there to, presumably, assist Dan Norris in his mayoral bid. was that that unfortunate argument between KS and the pub landlord? |
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Post by matureleft on Dec 27, 2021 10:04:56 GMT
Bath Labour support was thought sufficiently substantial to book Starmer in for a pub visit there to, presumably, assist Dan Norris in his mayoral bid. was that that unfortunate argument between KS and the pub landlord? Indeed. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 27, 2021 10:55:19 GMT
believe me, I know the constituency very well, and have canvassed for Labour in it several times this year. It is pretty unrealistic even on the existing boundaries. If the boundaries change as mooted it would become completely unrealistic. On the basis of all recent polls, which includes those giving Labour national leads of 8 & even 9%, the Lib Dems would gain the seat, and I can assure you that local circumstances are considerably more in Labour's disfavour than the polls suggest. Labour has a much better chance in Cities of London & Westminster, and I'd argue Finchley & Golders Green though the latter is quite a bit harder. A few leaflets citing this poll - and having the LDs in third place - will not do Labour any harm. I have to say I have no knowledge as to the likely impact of the boundary changes here. I know there's a belief in these parts that evil Lib Dem bar charts on leaflets can steal elections, but anyone who's ever been involved in a Lib Dem campaign will know that (a) "a few leaflets" are useless - you need loads to be sure any of them are read, which in turn means a major effort in printing and delivering. The CLP would need the money and members to pile in, preferably well before an election and then sustained through to polling day. (b) It has to be credible. A barrage of leaflets carries its own message of how hard the party is trying and the strength of the local party but equally no-one in a place where the LDs are non-existent ever looked at a bar chart and thought "oh look, the Lib Dems are the challengers here, even though I've never met one locally and everyone else I now is voting Lab or Con." Heaps of paper saying "Jo Swinson for PM" were a waste of trees. Our squeeze messages work where they have a ring of truth, which we then exaggerate/spin etc. I don't rule out Labour making a come-back or challenge in Wimbledon but I think it will be tough against a LD local party which holds most of the cards (an actual 2019 GE result plus local election results is going to beat a MRP projection, when 99% of people don't know what MRP means) and which will have the full backing of the national machine while Labour will almost certainly have much better prospects elsewhere (and will also, if not stupid, understand that taking seats from the Tories is top of the agenda, an LD gain from Con is not therefore a disaster, Lab failing to gain from Con in a target might be.) |
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Focaldata
Dec 27, 2021 11:34:39 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 27, 2021 11:34:39 GMT
Bath Labour support was thought sufficiently substantial to book Starmer in for a pub visit there to, presumably, assist Dan Norris in his mayoral bid. Perhaps, but also the Mayoral contest was clearly Labour v Tory and I suspect the aim was to get Lib Dem and Green second preferences to Morris as much as getting first preferences from Labour inclined tactical voters. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 27, 2021 11:37:40 GMT
Bath Labour support was thought sufficiently substantial to book Starmer in for a pub visit there to, presumably, assist Dan Norris in his mayoral bid. Norris came very close to carrying BANES in the first round, with 32% of the vote (and did carry it comfortably after transfers). Obviously there is another constituency included there, indeed one once represented by Norris at Westminster, but that does suggest Labour did quite well in Bath. I don't doubt there is potential for Labour to do much better in General Elections in Bath if the right circumstances developed, but as I say I doubt it will happen in 2024. In Sheffield Hallam the key things in 2015, the election where most of the tactical unwind happened, were (a) Clegg's performance in the coalition (b) the Tories no longer being perceived as competitive (c) the local Labour party and candidate running a very effective campaign which convinced people they could win. Also the Lib Dems shifted to trying to win tactical votes from Tories instead, which was what saved the seat in 2015, but I don't think they did that until it was clear the dynamics had changed. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 28, 2021 16:47:53 GMT
Bath Labour support was thought sufficiently substantial to book Starmer in for a pub visit there to, presumably, assist Dan Norris in his mayoral bid. Norris came very close to carrying BANES in the first round, with 32% of the vote (and did carry it comfortably after transfers). Obviously there is another constituency included there, indeed one once represented by Norris at Westminster, but that does suggest Labour did quite well in Bath. I don't doubt there is potential for Labour to do much better in General Elections in Bath if the right circumstances developed, but as I say I doubt it will happen in 2024. In Sheffield Hallam the key things in 2015, the election where most of the tactical unwind happened, were (a) Clegg's performance in the coalition (b) the Tories no longer being perceived as competitive (c) the local Labour party and candidate running a very effective campaign which convinced people they could win. Also the Lib Dems shifted to trying to win tactical votes from Tories instead, which was what saved the seat in 2015, but I don't think they did that until it was clear the dynamics had changed. There were also a bunch of polls in Hallam 2015 which actually predicted the outcome quite well.. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Dec 28, 2021 19:30:15 GMT
Going back to the London seats, the key will surely be what happens in May's council elections. The advantage we have in Wimbledon is that local council results give us credibility. There is precisely the opposite situation in Finchley and Cities of London, where we have no council seats. So for us to challenge there, or for Labour to do so in Wimbledon, it needs good election results in May to give campaigns credibility
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Dec 28, 2021 20:48:41 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 28, 2021 20:48:41 GMT
Going back to the London seats, the key will surely be what happens in May's council elections. The advantage we have in Wimbledon is that local council results give us credibility. There is precisely the opposite situation in Finchley and Cities of London, where we have no council seats. So for us to challenge there, or for Labour to do so in Wimbledon, it needs good election results in May to give campaigns credibility I don't think we have all that good results in Wimbledon from 2018. Third in votes by the look of it. That makes the 2019 GE result even more remarkable. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Dec 28, 2021 22:01:20 GMT
Going back to the London seats, the key will surely be what happens in May's council elections. The advantage we have in Wimbledon is that local council results give us credibility. There is precisely the opposite situation in Finchley and Cities of London, where we have no council seats. So for us to challenge there, or for Labour to do so in Wimbledon, it needs good election results in May to give campaigns credibility I don't think we have all that good results in Wimbledon from 2018. Third in votes by the look of it. That makes the 2019 GE result even more remarkable. Perhaps but from memory, we had made our first breakthrough in 2018, and then gained another seat in a by election after that, so we had built up a degree of momentum, which we haven't (yet at least) in either Finchley or CofL&W |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 13, 2022 12:06:14 GMT
New poll from Focal data (12-13th Jan)
LAB: 42% (+1)
CON: 33% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
REFUK: 3%
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Post by woollyliberal on Nov 17, 2022 9:02:42 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Nov 17, 2022 9:10:30 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 25, 2023 12:31:15 GMT
Sam Freedman has commissioned a poll from this company as part of a wider project, headline figures of Lab 49 Con 24.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 25, 2023 14:37:39 GMT
The rest of the data:
LD 9
Ref 7
Grn 4
SNP 3
Others 4
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 7, 2023 10:31:22 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 7, 2023 11:55:53 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2023 12:01:10 GMT
Yes, but the lowest Labour figure is equally contrived - seems to assume that Reform do another deal with the Tories like the BxP did in 2019 (itself extremely unlikely) and then basically all their previous support goes Tory (also probably not going to be the case)
Btw the Twitter spin from the Sun hack on these findings is beyond hilarious.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 7, 2023 12:22:13 GMT
I'd love to know how seats like Peckham and Hackney South & Shoreditch swing to the Tories in this scenario
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 7, 2023 12:26:04 GMT
Btw this is the 1st poll Ive seen that they are claiming to be based on the new constituencies.
Do any of you know of any polling/psephology organisations that contain data for the extrapolated majorities for each seat under the new proposals? I havent come accross any yet and want to get my "database ducks in a row" in due course!
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