The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2023 12:28:04 GMT
I'd love to know how seats like Peckham and Hackney South & Shoreditch swing to the Tories in this scenario Its "results" for the LibDems are good for a laugh as well. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2023 12:40:12 GMT
I'd love to know how seats like Peckham and Hackney South & Shoreditch swing to the Tories in this scenario Now, you are likely to see lower swings in such constituencies for fairly obvious reasons, but... |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 7, 2023 12:59:45 GMT
“'Don't Know' was predicted to win two seats, namely Aberdeenshire North and Moray East”.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 7, 2023 13:03:19 GMT
“'Don't Know' was predicted to win two seats, namely Aberdeenshire North and Moray East”. Yes, but would they take their seats in the HoC and indeed on which benches would they sit  |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 7, 2023 13:04:09 GMT
Btw this is the 1st poll Ive seen that they are claiming to be based on the new constituencies. Do any of you know of any polling/psephology organisations that contain data for the extrapolated majorities for each seat under the new proposals? I havent come accross any yet and want to get my "database ducks in a row" in due course! The phrase i was looking for was "notional results" *brain fog* |
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 7, 2023 13:17:14 GMT
I see the writer/s of the article don't know that Labour on 470 seats would be a majority of close to 300, not 140.
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Post by borisminor on Jun 7, 2023 13:18:07 GMT
I suspect the reason why none of the seats add up to 100% is because of don't know values. However, this doesn't make sense in the tables where don't knows are allocated.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2023 13:19:50 GMT
They are not only predicting the SNP to take Orkney & Shetland (unlikely in the current circumstances, but certainly not impossible) but also Labour to finish second and the LD’s only third.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 7, 2023 14:19:48 GMT
All I can see is the introduction text at the top, and then a big dark blue block with about 2 small numbery things, but no proper details. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 7, 2023 21:33:27 GMT
Labour gain North Devon in that poll. Jeez.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 7, 2023 21:43:04 GMT
i think we can all agree that this is an interesting poll but as a prediction it should be taken with an aircraft hanger-sized amount of salt
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 8, 2023 7:15:30 GMT
Labour gain North Devon in that poll. Jeez. I don't think that's hugely unrealistic given Labour's progress in local by elections in Devon |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Jun 8, 2023 7:43:38 GMT
Labour also to win Eastbourne and Montgomery. In reality, Labour has no chance in either seat.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 8, 2023 8:04:42 GMT
Labour also to win Eastbourne and Montgomery. Eastbourne is a no. Montgomery would be a lib dem target if the Lib Dems existed in Wales, so I don't know |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 8, 2023 8:11:08 GMT
Labour gain North Devon in that poll. Jeez. I don't think that's hugely unrealistic given Labour's progress in local by elections in Devon I think it’s hugely unrealistic as there hasn’t been any Labour progress in that part of Devon. 9% at the last general and the last Labour councillor elected there was in 1983, |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 8, 2023 8:24:32 GMT
Labour gain North Devon in that poll. Jeez. I don't think that's hugely unrealistic given Labour's progress in local by elections in Devon Err - Labour didn't win a single seat in North Devon district in May and came 4th in the popular vote (5th if you count independents as a unified block) across the district. There may be parts of Devon where Labour could be competitive at a general election, but I highly doubt North Devon would be one... |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 8, 2023 8:28:28 GMT
This MRP shows the Lib Dems losing everything in Scotland, as do most MRPs. Given the SNP's current weakness and the Lib Dems' reputation for holding on, it seems like a failing of the modelling rather than a realistic prospect.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 8, 2023 8:34:58 GMT
I don't think that's hugely unrealistic given Labour's progress in local by elections in Devon Err - Labour didn't win a single seat in North Devon district in May and came 4th in the popular vote (5th if you count independents as a unified block) across the district. There may be parts of Devon where Labour could be competitive at a general election, but I highly doubt North Devon would be one... Plymouth and Exeter, not sure about anywhere else. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 8, 2023 8:37:19 GMT
This MRP shows the Lib Dems losing everything in Scotland, as do most MRPs. Given the SNP's current weakness and the Lib Dems' reputation for holding on, it seems like a failing of the modelling rather than a realistic prospect. I think I'd call it vulnerability rather than weakness. Their poll ratings appear to be holding up better than one might expect, but the attack lines against the SNP are now better defined than for a long time and under the heat of battle they might struggle to defend themselves. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 8, 2023 8:40:19 GMT
Outside of Plymouth and Exeter, Labour councillors elected in Devon this year
East Devon 3 (+2) one each in Ottery St Mary, Exmouth and Honiton
Mid Devon 0
North Devon 0
South Hams 1 (+1) - in Dartmouth
Teignbridge 0
Torbay 0
Torridge 2 (-1) in Bideford
West Devon 1 - in Bere Ferrers
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