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Post by michaelarden on Jun 8, 2023 8:40:47 GMT
This MRP shows the Lib Dems losing everything in Scotland, as do most MRPs. Given the SNP's current weakness and the Lib Dems' reputation for holding on, it seems like a failing of the modelling rather than a realistic prospect. I think I'd call it vulnerability rather than weakness. Their poll ratings appear to be holding up better than one might expect, but the attack lines against them are now better defined than for a long time and under the heat of battle they might struggle to defend themselves. That's fair and with support for Indy still running at more than 10 points above SNP voting intention there's also opportunity for the SNP to recover among Yes voters - some of whom presumably have recently plumped for Starmer's Labour. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 8, 2023 10:43:15 GMT
Labour also to win Eastbourne and Montgomery. In reality, Labour has no chance in either seat.
Is this Montgomery on the presently proposed new boundaries? Because that is theoretically plausible as a stretch Labour target in a very good year. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 8, 2023 10:46:23 GMT
Labour also to win Eastbourne and Montgomery. In reality, Labour has no chance in either seat.
Is this Montgomery on the presently proposed new boundaries? Because that is theoretically plausible as a stretch Labour target in a very good year. Yes, this is all on the proposed new boundaries. So that’s indeed not as implausible as some of the others mentioned. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 8, 2023 11:06:10 GMT
Outside of Plymouth and Exeter, Labour councillors elected in Devon this year East Devon 3 (+2) one each in Ottery St Mary, Exmouth and Honiton Mid Devon 0 North Devon 0 South Hams 1 (+1) - in Dartmouth Teignbridge 0 Torbay 0 Torridge 2 (-1) in Bideford West Devon 1 - in Bere Ferrers West Devon was a gain on 2019, and they are 3 up on then in East Devon. I expect they might have hoped to win something in Teignbridge, however. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
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Focaldata
Jun 8, 2023 12:49:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by Khunanup on Jun 8, 2023 12:49:57 GMT
Outside of Plymouth and Exeter, Labour councillors elected in Devon this year East Devon 3 (+2) one each in Ottery St Mary, Exmouth and Honiton Mid Devon 0 North Devon 0 South Hams 1 (+1) - in Dartmouth Teignbridge 0 Torbay 0 Torridge 2 (-1) in Bideford West Devon 1 - in Bere Ferrers West Devon was a gain on 2019, and they are 3 up on then in East Devon. I expect they might have hoped to win something in Teignbridge, however. Yes, the existing Labour seat in East Devon came in a by-election in 2021 (the Honiton seat). |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452 
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Post by iain on Jun 8, 2023 13:56:43 GMT
Looks like this article is still very relevant:
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Post by batman on Jun 8, 2023 15:40:41 GMT
where the hell did they get a Labour gain in North Devon from? I mean, that's (expletive deleted) ludicrous. It's Labour's weakest seat in Devon, which is saying a great deal, and has been for a very long time.
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Post by hullenedge on Feb 6, 2024 20:47:58 GMT
The polling dynamics around Reform.
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Post by hullenedge on Feb 14, 2024 7:52:13 GMT
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-focal-11-what-explains-our-politicsLots of good stuff about where voters sit on the spectrum. Not a surprise that the Auth Left is the most popular segment. Scroll down the page to view various outcomes for the GE should there be a 'swing back' to the government (based upon the YouGov MRP). It is estimated that Labour require a lead of 5-7% for a working majority.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 30, 2024 13:08:35 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on May 22, 2024 11:29:14 GMT
Focaldata's latest email/blog, GE forecast based upon performance in the locals:-
Lab 38% - 394 seats
Con 26% - 160 seats
LD 13%
Ref 7%
Green 5%
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 4, 2024 18:56:25 GMT
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Focaldata
Jun 6, 2024 16:46:19 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Jun 6, 2024 16:46:19 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2024 19:28:08 GMT
Tory campaign update: Fuck
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 6, 2024 20:53:35 GMT
When will we discover that Farage is secretly the owner of a ladies' lingerie business?
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Post by batman on Jun 6, 2024 21:09:47 GMT
You are wrong, Lord Spodecroft or whatever his title sort of was
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,861
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 6, 2024 21:13:44 GMT
When will we discover that Farage is secretly the owner of a ladies' lingerie business? would it be worse if he owned a men’s lingerie business. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 7, 2024 6:31:37 GMT
When will we discover that Farage is secretly the owner of a ladies' lingerie business? would it be worse if he owned a men’s lingerie business.
Now, now, you have to remember businesses are also allowed to self identify, not just humans.  |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Jun 7, 2024 7:13:06 GMT
You are wrong, Lord Spodecroft or whatever his title sort of was Roderick Spode, 7th Earl of Sidcup that he was is sort of the point |
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Post by batman on Jun 7, 2024 8:23:04 GMT
Lord Spodecup. Thanks. (Bertie Wooster called him that when accused of something by him)
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