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Post by michaelarden on Jun 8, 2023 8:40:47 GMT
This MRP shows the Lib Dems losing everything in Scotland, as do most MRPs. Given the SNP's current weakness and the Lib Dems' reputation for holding on, it seems like a failing of the modelling rather than a realistic prospect. I think I'd call it vulnerability rather than weakness. Their poll ratings appear to be holding up better than one might expect, but the attack lines against them are now better defined than for a long time and under the heat of battle they might struggle to defend themselves. That's fair and with support for Indy still running at more than 10 points above SNP voting intention there's also opportunity for the SNP to recover among Yes voters - some of whom presumably have recently plumped for Starmer's Labour. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,071
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 8, 2023 10:43:15 GMT
Labour also to win Eastbourne and Montgomery. In reality, Labour has no chance in either seat.
Is this Montgomery on the presently proposed new boundaries? Because that is theoretically plausible as a stretch Labour target in a very good year. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 3,891
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Jun 8, 2023 10:46:23 GMT
Labour also to win Eastbourne and Montgomery. In reality, Labour has no chance in either seat.
Is this Montgomery on the presently proposed new boundaries? Because that is theoretically plausible as a stretch Labour target in a very good year. Yes, this is all on the proposed new boundaries. So that’s indeed not as implausible as some of the others mentioned. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 35,415
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 8, 2023 11:06:10 GMT
Outside of Plymouth and Exeter, Labour councillors elected in Devon this year East Devon 3 (+2) one each in Ottery St Mary, Exmouth and Honiton Mid Devon 0 North Devon 0 South Hams 1 (+1) - in Dartmouth Teignbridge 0 Torbay 0 Torridge 2 (-1) in Bideford West Devon 1 - in Bere Ferrers West Devon was a gain on 2019, and they are 3 up on then in East Devon. I expect they might have hoped to win something in Teignbridge, however. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,352
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Focaldata
Jun 8, 2023 12:49:57 GMT
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 8, 2023 12:49:57 GMT
Outside of Plymouth and Exeter, Labour councillors elected in Devon this year East Devon 3 (+2) one each in Ottery St Mary, Exmouth and Honiton Mid Devon 0 North Devon 0 South Hams 1 (+1) - in Dartmouth Teignbridge 0 Torbay 0 Torridge 2 (-1) in Bideford West Devon 1 - in Bere Ferrers West Devon was a gain on 2019, and they are 3 up on then in East Devon. I expect they might have hoped to win something in Teignbridge, however. Yes, the existing Labour seat in East Devon came in a by-election in 2021 (the Honiton seat). |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,318 
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Post by iain on Jun 8, 2023 13:56:43 GMT
Looks like this article is still very relevant:
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Post by batman on Jun 8, 2023 15:40:41 GMT
where the hell did they get a Labour gain in North Devon from? I mean, that's (expletive deleted) ludicrous. It's Labour's weakest seat in Devon, which is saying a great deal, and has been for a very long time.
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