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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 6, 2024 16:38:03 GMT
Average the 3 polls since Farage and put them in Electoral Calculus and get
Lab 495 Con 58 LD 58
Add a smidge of tactical voting and that changes to
Lab 505 Con 50 LD 60
For the first 2 weeks of the campaign, nothing moved the polls. Farage has.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,763
Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 6, 2024 16:40:21 GMT
Although the poll is interesting, it didn’t merit the ramping. That's the case about 90% of the time. Admittedly, a poll showing an incumbent government in that sort of difficulty during a General Election campaign doesn't not deserve to be depicted in that way if crude depictions are your thing, but every other poll shows the same.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 6, 2024 16:43:11 GMT
Hardly an asteroidal event.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 6, 2024 16:45:02 GMT
Hardly an asteroidal event. Quite so but there's another four weeks of hype to endure.
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Survation
Jun 6, 2024 17:22:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by carolus on Jun 6, 2024 17:22:32 GMT
Although the poll is interesting, it didn’t merit the ramping. They never do.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jun 6, 2024 17:44:24 GMT
Too many polls. Too many pollsters.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 6, 2024 17:49:20 GMT
Too many polls. Too many pollsters. Never too many polls. Probably too many pollsters.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 6, 2024 19:36:43 GMT
The biggest issue is pollsters having to dance with the algorithm, knowing that the best way to get attention is to prank, ramp, and meme their way into trending topics.
Four weeks to go.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 6, 2024 19:46:27 GMT
The biggest issue is pollsters having to dance with the algorithm, knowing that the best way to get attention is to prank, ramp, and meme their way into trending topics. Four weeks to go. If you dance with an algorithim, be sure not to step on its mathematically rigorous instructions.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,851
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Post by YL on Jun 12, 2024 6:50:36 GMT
Lab 41 Con 23 Reform 12 Lib Dem 10 Green 6 SNP 3 Survation, 5-11 June
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,304
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2024 11:30:58 GMT
This is a phone survey, as opposed to their more regular online polling.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jun 15, 2024 17:38:33 GMT
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Survation
Jun 15, 2024 18:25:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Jun 15, 2024 18:25:47 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Jun 15, 2024 18:27:23 GMT
I don’t think I’d put Exmouth and Exeter East in the 50 most likely seats for Reform.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 15, 2024 18:32:47 GMT
In preparation for the Number of seats for each party prediction competition, I've been drawing up maps of my predictions. I've done 3 already and my Tory prediction has dropped from 165 to 144 to 120 in the latest one. Yet so many polls keep implying the number of Tory seats could be in double figures. I decided to revisit my map once again and mark in blue the seats that I just couldnt possibly imagine them losing in almost any circumstances....and I still ended up with 90!
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 15, 2024 18:33:24 GMT
The fieldwork dates are 31st May to 13th June, so most of the numbers are before Rishi's D Day. The polls have shifted noticeably since then, so bear that in mind when looking at the seat projections. It's interesting to note that the 8 polls in the last couple of day all have the Tories in the range 18% to 21%.
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 15, 2024 18:38:52 GMT
I don’t think I’d put Exmouth and Exeter East in the 50 most likely seats for Reform. I think it’s probably because the high independent vote in East Devon last time round throws their methodology out. Reform will be nowhere in this seat.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 15, 2024 18:43:19 GMT
I don’t think I’d put Exmouth and Exeter East in the 50 most likely seats for Reform. The algorithm is reallocation REF-UK, Clare Wright votes. There's a lot of smoothed results which clearly wrong as well.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 15, 2024 18:45:02 GMT
I don’t think I’d put Exmouth and Exeter East in the 50 most likely seats for Reform. I think it’s probably because the high independent vote in East Devon last time round throws their methodology out. Reform will be nowhere in this seat. I'd take a punt at a poor fourth, I was going to have a nose around Exmouth on Thursday but it was absolutely lashing it down, so we stayed in.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,289
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Post by graham on Jun 15, 2024 18:48:08 GMT
This MRP survey seems to be exaggerating SNP strength - implying 37 seats. Half that is much more likely.
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