cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Survation
Jun 4, 2024 18:44:50 GMT
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Post by cogload on Jun 4, 2024 18:44:50 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 4, 2024 18:52:31 GMT
The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 4, 2024 18:59:48 GMT
It's. Happening.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 4, 2024 19:03:03 GMT
(I'm more convinced than ever that polling will have to be tweaked to ensure that Reform (e.g.) is given at least one seat when the figures show that statistically they are likely to have one. Election Calculus is infamously bad at this.)
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 4, 2024 19:12:33 GMT
If you look at the tables, there are several seats with Tory majorities of a fraction of a percent. It would barely take any movement for it to be a lot worse for them.
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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 4, 2024 19:12:48 GMT
The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go: Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0 So what they are doing is not using the raw seat data for seat numbers; but using that to give each party a % chance of winning each seat; and then adding those together to product a set of headline figures. From what I'm aware of this is similar to what the exit poll figures are done through and the idea is that if you have a party very narrowly behind in a chain of seats they'd probably win a few of them on the night. I suspect that's the case for the Reform figures - it'll be a set of 10 seats where they have a 30% chance of winning (or similar) rather than being on top somewhere. Whether that's the best methodology to use is a debate: but I think there's validity to it. I would believe the Survation published numbers over the ones from the raw data
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,556
Member is Online
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Survation
Jun 4, 2024 19:16:31 GMT
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Post by carolus on Jun 4, 2024 19:16:31 GMT
The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go: Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0 So what they are doing is not using the raw seat data for seat numbers; but using that to give each party a % chance of winning each seat; and then adding those together to product a set of headline figures. From what I'm aware of this is similar to what the exit poll figures are done through and the idea is that if you have a party very narrowly behind in a chain of seats they'd probably win a few of them on the night. I suspect that's the case for the Reform figures - it'll be a set of 10 seats where they have a 30% chance of winning (or similar) rather than being on top somewhere. Whether that's the best methodology to use is a debate: but I think there's validity to it. I would believe the Survation published numbers over the ones from the raw data I agree - it's actually very sensible. They're publishing the expected number of seats, rather than a point prediction of each seat individually. If my prediction says 51%-49% in a seat, that's clearly not an entire seat predicted for the first aprty.
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 4, 2024 19:39:39 GMT
They have the Lib Dems losing 10 points in Hazel Grove and Labour winning from 12% / third place in 2019. It doesn’t smell right.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,773
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Post by johng on Jun 4, 2024 19:42:32 GMT
You can believe this or not. I'm afraid I chose 'not'.
I have to say, sadly, I agree.
I have been a bit of a busybody and have been doing a fair bit of canvassing which has included South Wales' two Tory held seats. I think it is quite reasonable to believe we will take both. However, I don't we are seeing or feeling a massive groundswell of support of support that would equal anything like that. Though it could also be reasonable to say the swing in Wales will be a fair bit smaller than England and Scotland.
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Survation
Jun 4, 2024 19:54:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Jun 4, 2024 19:54:03 GMT
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Post by kevinf on Jun 4, 2024 21:22:06 GMT
I am happy to stake what tiny political reputation I have on this. The Tories are NOT going to fall under 100 seats. I worked full time on the ‘97 election and it does nor feel better than that for Labour.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,851
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Post by YL on Jun 4, 2024 21:55:34 GMT
Tories holding Hitchin but losing South Holland & the Deepings to Labour? How on earth do they get that?
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 4, 2024 21:59:42 GMT
I am happy to stake what tiny political reputation I have on this. The Tories are NOT going to fall under 100 seats. I worked full time on the ‘97 election and it does nor feel better than that for Labour. It's not about if it's better for labour, but if it's worse for the Cons. The Cons got 31% in 1997. They're way way below that at the moment. You could canvass now and not find a single extra Labour vote compared to 2019, and the Cons would still be on for a mauling.
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 6,054
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 4, 2024 22:06:58 GMT
I am still twitchy about the don't knows. A lot of the Tory vote doesn't know whether they can bring themselves not to vote for their party, or bring themselves to vote for this government. When the election was called I was expecting only a minority to actually return "home".
However, things like Sunak doing better than expected in the debate or polls showing Labour on close to 500 seats will send lots of them back to the Tories. Paradoxically so might the intervention of Farage, as personal distate for him isn't limited to people who dislike his politics.
I still think we will win and win big but we need to avoid making any mistakes
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 6, 2024 14:23:02 GMT
Survation poll incoming at 1730. And the tweet advertising it has a gif of a meteor heading towards Earth.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 58
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Survation
Jun 6, 2024 14:45:23 GMT
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Post by Raddy on Jun 6, 2024 14:45:23 GMT
I am happy to stake what tiny political reputation I have on this. The Tories are NOT going to fall under 100 seats. I worked full time on the ‘97 election and it does nor feel better than that for Labour. How can you even compare the two, there was no alternative party of the right in 1997, there was no campaigner like Farage, there was no history of winning campaigns by a fourth force like the Brexit referendum, or the UKIP and Brexit parties winning the EU elections.There was at best the first stirrings of the new politics with the Referendum Party getting 800k votes, but nothing else, they were barely visible. Instead of staking your 'reputation', why don't you put your money where your reputation is, and on a day like today stake a £100 to the Royal British Legion instead. At least then it won't be an empty gesture
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 6, 2024 15:05:29 GMT
Survation poll incoming at 1730. And the tweet advertising it has a gif of a meteor heading towards Earth. Said GIF.
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batman
Labour
Posts: 11,589
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jun 6, 2024 16:15:53 GMT
My assumption is that the dramatic stuff is because of possible crossover between Reform & the Conservatives rather than the size or otherwise of the Labour lead.
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Survation
Jun 6, 2024 16:24:03 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 6, 2024 16:24:03 GMT
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DrW
Conservative
Posts: 574
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Post by DrW on Jun 6, 2024 16:31:11 GMT
Although the poll is interesting, it didn’t merit the ramping.
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