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Survation
Jun 15, 2024 18:48:18 GMT
via mobile
Post by Yaffles on Jun 15, 2024 18:48:18 GMT
I think it’s probably because the high independent vote in East Devon last time round throws their methodology out. Reform will be nowhere in this seat. I'd take a punt at a poor fourth, I was going to have a nose around Exmouth on Thursday but it was absolutely lashing it down, so we stayed in. It’s a nice town, have friends who live there. They are voting Lib Dem having voted for the Indy last time, so that mean something .. or nothing. |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 19:00:52 GMT
The fieldwork dates are 31st May to 13th June, so most of the numbers are before Rishi's D Day. The polls have shifted noticeably since then, so bear that in mind when looking at the seat projections. It's interesting to note that the 8 polls in the last couple of day all have the Tories in the range 18% to 21%. it is quite annoying when polls with old fieldwork appear, particularly when a ) there's a general election campaign on and b ) there have clearly been events which could render at least some of it out of date. Polls which were sampled immediately before publication are generally a better guide & some of the MRP suggestions as always don't look right. |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 19:03:56 GMT
This MRP survey seems to be exaggerating SNP strength - implying 37 seats. Half that is much more likely. I really don't understand why but I fear that some of these polls make the lazy assumption that basically there will be no change in the SNP position in Scotland, Plaid's in Wales & so on. Scotland-wide & where applicable Wales-wide polls tell us far more about what may happen over the respective borders from England than an exercise like this. With all polls in Scotland now having Labour ahead, except one where we were level with the SNP, it's blindingly obvious that the SNP cannot win 37 seats unless literally all the polls are completely wrong. |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 19:06:06 GMT
I'd take a punt at a poor fourth, I was going to have a nose around Exmouth on Thursday but it was absolutely lashing it down, so we stayed in. It’s a nice town, have friends who live there. They are voting Lib Dem having voted for the Indy last time, so that mean something .. or nothing. they are almost certainly not unusual. Claire Wright has endorsed the Lib Dem candidate and it does seem that most of her previous support, though not all, came from Lib Dems, Labour & some more centrist Tories. It's likely that a very large proportion of her vote will go to the Lib Dems. In the Exeter portion of the seat of course that isn't applicable. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 15, 2024 19:06:07 GMT
Lots of swing seats.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 15, 2024 19:07:23 GMT
The fieldwork dates are 31st May to 13th June, so most of the numbers are before Rishi's D Day. The polls have shifted noticeably since then, so bear that in mind when looking at the seat projections. It's interesting to note that the 8 polls in the last couple of day all have the Tories in the range 18% to 21%. it is quite annoying when polls with old fieldwork appear, particularly when a ) there's a general election campaign on and b ) there have clearly been events which could render at least some of it out of date. Polls which were sampled immediately before publication are generally a better guide & some of the MRP suggestions as always don't look right. Indeed. The current Tory position may now be even worse, especially if 19 of the 72 seats had majorities of 2% or less. We shall have to wait for the next poll, grrr. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 15, 2024 19:10:30 GMT
The fieldwork dates are 31st May to 13th June, so most of the numbers are before Rishi's D Day. The polls have shifted noticeably since then, so bear that in mind when looking at the seat projections. It's interesting to note that the 8 polls in the last couple of day all have the Tories in the range 18% to 21%. it is quite annoying when polls with old fieldwork appear, particularly when a ) there's a general election campaign on and b ) there have clearly been events which could render at least some of it out of date. Polls which were sampled immediately before publication are generally a better guide & some of the MRP suggestions as always don't look right. I totally agree though Survation say their data has the SNP leading Labour 37% to 30%. That is at variance with tonight's Scotland surver giving Labour 34% to SNP 30%. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 15, 2024 19:39:14 GMT
I am afraid - having looked at some of the predictions - I cannot take this MRP survey very seriously at all. The idea that Labour will win Bexhill & Battle and that Torbay is a three-way marginal frankly sounds a load of tosh.Nor do I expect Labour to win Waveney Valley where Labour is at 30.1% Tories 25.8% Greens 14.3% Reform have 22.7%. This seat is a top Green target!
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 19:46:03 GMT
it is quite annoying when polls with old fieldwork appear, particularly when a ) there's a general election campaign on and b ) there have clearly been events which could render at least some of it out of date. Polls which were sampled immediately before publication are generally a better guide & some of the MRP suggestions as always don't look right. I totally agree though Survation say their data has the SNP leading Labour 37% to 30%. That is at variance with tonight's Scotland surver giving Labour 34% to SNP 30%. well that looks like very inaccurate subsampling. It really is best to rely on Scotland-only polls for an idea of how Scotland's seats pan out. |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 19:47:39 GMT
I am afraid - having looked at some of the predictions - I cannot take this MRP survey very seriously at all. The idea that Labour will win Bexhill & Battle and that Torbay is a three-way marginal frankly sounds a load of tosh.Nor do I expect Labour to win Waveney Valley where Labour is at 30.1% Tories 25.8% Greens 14.3% Reform have 22.7%. This seat is a top Green target! all those are bollocks predictions. The first is the least unlikely, but it's still extremely unlikely! There is of course some Labour support in parts of Bexhill, but not really in the rest of that constituency where mostly Labour are very weak. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 15, 2024 19:50:53 GMT
Indeed. Castle Point going Labour too? And, as much as many of us would love to see the back of Liz Truss, that is unlikely in the extreme, yet the poll suggests the Tories will regain Shropshire N and hold perennial Lib Dem target of Eastleigh?  |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 20:08:28 GMT
Let's face it. Any number of people in this forum would be able to make more accurate predictions than those ones. Truss's defeat to Labour is just about possible, depending on how many votes Bagge gets & where they came from previously, but it's unlikely. Castle Point just will not be a Labour gain, full stop.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 15, 2024 20:12:09 GMT
That's both Survation and YouGov with Fylde as a Labour gain. I just can't see it.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 15, 2024 20:13:18 GMT
Let's face it. Any number of people in this forum would be able to make more accurate predictions than those ones. Truss's defeat to Labour is just about possible, depending on how many votes Bagge gets & where they came from previously, but it's unlikely. Castle Point just will not be a Labour gain, full stop. Did Labour not win Castle Point in 1997? |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 15, 2024 20:15:27 GMT
The MRP survey has Labour winning Bristol Central - polling 55.8% with he Greens on 23.7%. The result does not surprise me though the margin appears a bit high.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 15, 2024 20:17:19 GMT
That's both Survation and YouGov with Fylde as a Labour gain. I just can't see it. If Lab are going to win 450+ seats, maybe nearer 500, they are going to win some seats that we can’t see happening. In the SW, they would win some or all of Central Devon, Bridgwater, SW Devon potentially, SE Cornwall- all of which would be in my I can’t see it category, but the polls think we are in that territory. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 15, 2024 20:22:22 GMT
Someone on twatter has offered Survation 10 grand if the LD's finish 3rd in North Shropshire.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 15, 2024 20:22:36 GMT
Let's face it. Any number of people in this forum would be able to make more accurate predictions than those ones. Truss's defeat to Labour is just about possible, depending on how many votes Bagge gets & where they came from previously, but it's unlikely. Castle Point just will not be a Labour gain, full stop. Did Labour not win Castle Point in 1997? Yup, on a 16% swing or thereabouts. The swing required now is just under double that if my maths is correct.
Of course a lot of Tory majorities in 2019 are artifically inflated but even so, this would be proper nose bleed territory.
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 20:26:13 GMT
Let's face it. Any number of people in this forum would be able to make more accurate predictions than those ones. Truss's defeat to Labour is just about possible, depending on how many votes Bagge gets & where they came from previously, but it's unlikely. Castle Point just will not be a Labour gain, full stop. Did Labour not win Castle Point in 1997? of course, they/we did, but at that time there was far more local strength for the party. In fact Labour controlled the council at the time of that general election and successfully defended it in 1999. Nowadays there are no Labour councillors at all & it is some years since there have been any. It will not be won by Labour this year although it will be quite a lot better than it was in 2019, even if only because Reform will take far more Tory than Labour votes in that constituency. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 15, 2024 20:31:39 GMT
For Wimbledon the survey comes up with LD 35.2% Lab 30.6% Con 22.5%. I have no idea how accurate that is - though Labour can use it to dissuade voters from voting tactically.
Carshalton & Wallington is LD 37.1% Lab 22.7% con 21.5%.
Labour wins Epsom and Ewell!!
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