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Post by Philip Davies on Dec 3, 2013 23:58:11 GMT
Are there any seats that are undergoing demographic change that might result in a different party winning in say 10 years time?
For example, of the seats Labour didn't win in 1997 are there any they could win sometime soon (other than Ynys Mon and Dorset South). Bermondsey and Old Southwark is an obvious one, but are there any others? What about ones going the other way...Newcastle-Under-Lyme or NE Derbys perhaps?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 4, 2013 0:24:08 GMT
NE Derbys was marginal throughout the 1980s. NuL was pretty close in 1983, before the '86 by-election shook things up to Labour's - somewhat ironically - advantage.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2013 7:58:08 GMT
reading further details of the polls and if you take UKIP totally out the results are even worse for the Tories with only 20% of the UKIP voters previous Tory ones
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Post by erlend on Dec 4, 2013 8:13:33 GMT
Are there any seats that are undergoing demographic change that might result in a different party winning in say 10 years time? For example, of the seats Labour didn't win in 1997 are there any they could win sometime soon (other than Ynys Mon and Dorset South). Bermondsey and Old Southwark is an obvious one, but are there any others? What about ones going the other way...Newcastle-Under-Lyme or NE Derbys perhaps? I would have thought that politics is what puts Bermondsey at risk. Demographics is making it less Labour. |
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Post by erlend on Dec 4, 2013 8:14:06 GMT
Going against Labour is the occasional reference to Gower.
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Post by Philip Davies on Dec 4, 2013 9:54:38 GMT
I mentioned B&OS as the obvious one that Labour didn't win in 1997 but probably will do when Hughes retires. But yes it won't be down to demographic shift.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 4, 2013 9:59:59 GMT
I wouldn't assume that Simon Hughes retiring is a necessary condition for Labour regaining the seat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2014 23:45:25 GMT
Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
New Survation poll for Mail on Sunday has Tories falling further behind May's EU elections
CON 23
LAB 32
LD 9
UKIP 26
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 0:09:27 GMT
Are there any seats that are undergoing demographic change that might result in a different party winning in say 10 years time? For example, of the seats Labour didn't win in 1997 are there any they could win sometime soon (other than Ynys Mon and Dorset South). Bermondsey and Old Southwark is an obvious one, but are there any others? What about ones going the other way...Newcastle-Under-Lyme or NE Derbys perhaps? Demographic change is making the area worse for you not better there. Lots of rich bankers moving into the posh riverside flats. Edinburgh West and arguably Argyll and Bute - these are only ones on your target list I think that hasn't been won by you in your last period in government notionally speaking. If you won the latter it would be a bit of a fluke in a 4-way marginal though. For us Berwick is an obvious example that is winnable now that we haven't won for a very long time. Not really demographic change though to blame for that. |
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Post by marksenior on Jan 5, 2014 15:06:11 GMT
The Survation poll also has a Westminster VI Con 31 Lab 35 LD 11 UKIP 16
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 17, 2014 13:14:47 GMT
Another (Westminster) poll out from this company today - Lab 34 Con 30 UKIP 18 LibDem 12.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Jan 17, 2014 17:24:39 GMT
I wonder if the splitting of the voting question in the previous survey is telling?
Some people who might respond UKIP when prompted usually, might having said UKIP to the European question, then felt that having registered their feelings returned to their usual party when asked about Westminster?
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Post by Devonian on Mar 18, 2014 19:43:17 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 22, 2014 21:14:15 GMT
Some disturbance in the force:
CON 34, LAB 35, LD 9, UKIP 15
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Post by Devonian on Apr 5, 2014 21:18:57 GMT
CON 29% LAB 36% UKIP 20% LDEM 10%
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Post by Devonian on Apr 5, 2014 21:26:01 GMT
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Post by Devonian on May 6, 2014 21:19:20 GMT
Survation poll for the Mirror
Lab 34%
Con 33%
can't find the rest of the figures yet
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Post by Devonian on May 6, 2014 21:32:57 GMT
Lab 34%
Con 33%
UKIP 18%
LD 8%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 10, 2014 21:44:07 GMT
Latest Survation
LAB 33%
CON 28%
UKIP 20%
LD 10%
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Post by carlton43 on May 11, 2014 0:30:06 GMT
Latest Survation LAB 33% CON 28% UKIP 20% LD 10% If only! Inclined to the AC strand of scepticism. |
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