Survation

[Deleted]

A 14 point change is extreme, and its a small sample are my complaints. The combination of the two with the poor history of constituency polling gets alarm bells ringing.

That would be enough to have labour being level with tories in the 1983 general or the tories winning the 1997 election.

Its just too far out.

[Deleted]

Anyone remember polls saying the tories would win in Dulwich in 2008? (Thanks to H. Hemmelig on the polling report for remembering that one)

[Deleted]

A quick summary of why I do not think Labour will win here looking at local CC results in 2013:

Broadgate and Sir Moses:

UKIP 2797, Con 2182, Lab 1854

Ramsgate

UKIP 3347, Lab 2478, Con 1583

Sandwich

Con 2093, UKIP 1173, Lab 983


The Cliftonville half of the Margate and Cliftonville seat is in South ~(i.e. Cliftonville W and E, with Dane Valley and Margate Central in North)

This ward was ultramarginal between UKIP and labour, with the tories 10 points behind,

However, The Cliftonville half is better for the conservatives and weaker for labour (ukip??? – ill presume they are equally strong in the two halves in absence of any real evidence).

In the 2011 districts

North – Dane Valley Lab 54%, Con 30%, LD 16%
North – Margate Central: Lab 71% Con 29%

South – Cliftonville West Lab 60%, Con 40%
South – Cliftonville East Con 54%, Lab 23%, Ind 18%, Green 4%.

So Labour outpolled the tories by 2:1 in the Thanet North half of the CC ward, but were behind in the Thanet South Half.

I would guess that the tories probably slightly outpolled labour in the Southern half as a result. with UKIP slightly ahead of the tories in 1st.



Total Excluding Split Ward:

UKIP 7317
Con 5858
Lab 5315

The Thanet South half of the split ward probably does not significantly alter the picture and probably votes about the same as the other 3 wards combined in percentage terms.

That doesn’t paint a good picture with regards to labour’s chances of winning the seat in 2015, especially as any UKIP drop is likely to increase the Con - Lab gap.

[The Bishop]

Nov 28, 2013 13:02:36 GMT joe said:

Anyone remember polls saying the tories would win in Dulwich in 2008? (Thanks to H. Hemmelig on the polling report for remembering that one)

For a while that year, the Tories were 20-plus points ahead in the polls - they quite likely would have then

[Pimpernal]

Nov 27, 2013 12:03:38 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 27, 2013 12:01:13 GMT joe said:

I don't think much cutting is required to be honest!

Oh dear! Might I have to fund extensions or a rug?

I believe there is a video of the Pimp's hairstyle available on the Kent thread for those unaware of the subject matter...

[Deleted]

Nov 28, 2013 18:15:28 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 28, 2013 13:02:36 GMT joe said:

Anyone remember polls saying the tories would win in Dulwich in 2008? (Thanks to H. Hemmelig on the polling report for remembering that one)

For a while that year, the Tories were 20-plus points ahead in the polls - they quite likely would have then

We have a decent core in that seat, but much is area where people would not consider voting for us. Half of Dulwich proper is museli and sandal territory as well.

In extremis we could win outlandish seats like Sunderland Central Hartlepool etc. With huge leads but I couldn't see Dulwich ever going tory.

Basically constituency polls are bollocks.

[Andrew_S]

"Tories behind Labour and level with Ukip in key target seats

Polls show Labour with 18-point lead over Ukip in Great Grimsby and 20-point lead over Conservatives in Dudley North":

www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/03/tories-behind-labour-level-with-ukip-key-marginals

[erlend]

Not sure I really regard Grimsby as a key Con/Lab marginal. While not impossible,there have been a few close shaves (2010, 1983, 1977 and 1959 by 101 votes) it last seems to have voted Tory in 1935.

[Deleted]

not sure I see Dudley N as a key one but shows why Tory optimism is unfounded ...

[Andrew_S]

Not very impressed by the choice of constituencies to poll. The Tories were never going to win these two: more interesting would have been the likes of Hampstead&Kilburn, B'ham Edgbaston, Southampton Itchen, Westminster North.

[Pete Whitehead]

I don't think Hamsptead & Kilburn and Westminster North would be all that interesting to UKIP

[erlend]

I would guess that the 2 London seats are out of reach probably for ever as demographic change advances. H&K was very nearly through the middle with a low percentage in 2010. If the LD vote were to fall I guess Lab would get a higher share than the Tories. If not then I think the Tory vote was about as high as it can go.

[independentukip]

Dec 3, 2013 20:58:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't think Hamsptead & Kilburn and Westminster North would be all that interesting to UKIP

I logged in to make the same basic point. It might be of interest to the UKIP candidate to know whether they're likely to retain their deposit in those constituencies but it is of no relevance to the UKIP narrative.

[Deleted]

Well I would have been fascinated in Dudley S and Halesowen with two known anti EU MP's but tow very right wing in an area the local tories are collapsing and UKIP would do well.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 3, 2013 20:59:22 GMT erlend said:

I would guess that the 2 London seats are out of reach probably for ever as demographic change advances. H&K was very nearly through the middle with a low percentage in 2010. If the LD vote were to fall I guess Lab would get a higher share than the Tories. If not then I think the Tory vote was about as high as it can go.

On the contrary - demographic change in Hampstead is favouring the Conservatives (on the old boundaries the Conservatives would have won Hampstead & Highgate in 2010, the only such seat which they did not in 1992 (there being numerous examples of the opposite of course)). Westminster North is a little different, but if anything the demographics have remained remarkably stable over the last 20 years or so, certainly compared to seats a bit further out

[erlend]

Dudley I think has some relevant demographics. But I don't know it. Would some of its people be 'White Flight'?

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 3, 2013 21:02:59 GMT erlend said:

Dudley I think has some relevant demographics. But I don't know it. Would some of its people be 'White Flight'?

I think thats probably yesterday's news. white flight is probably now occurring out of Dudley North

[erlend]

In 1992 the Conservative got 41.8%. It may be that the candidate Mr Oliver Letwin was particularly good (?) but I think the % would have been down even on the old boundaries. The close split of the vote is what makes it look like an advance. My gut feeling is that most of you expect a lower Lib Dem vote next time. I have been far to close to this seat to give a balanced verdict in public. It would be pointless.

[Andrew_S]

Dec 3, 2013 21:02:59 GMT erlend said:

Dudley I think has some relevant demographics. But I don't know it. Would some of its people be 'White Flight'?

I think Dudley North was the seat where UKIP came closest to overtaking the LDs in 2010. They didn't actually do so anywhere which is maybe a bit surprising.

[Pete Whitehead]

The Conservatives got about that nationally in 1992 - obviously much less in 2010 so you aren't comparing like with like. On the old boundaries the Tories would have won about 35-36% in 2010 which is down on 1992 but basically on a par with what they were down nationally. IN London they are down from 45% in 1992 to 34.5% in 2010 and in any case the issue is their strength relative to Labour. I take the point about the LD bote of course - it was exceptionally low in 1992 and most of it seems to have come from Labour voters, but the demographic direction is towards the Tories even if it may not be enough for them to win for a while.