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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 26, 2013 23:12:56 GMT
Interesting - a constituency poll, from Survation, in South Thanet constituency:
Lab 35 (+5)
UKIP 30 (+24)
C 28 (-20)
L Dem 5 (-15)
Comparison to 2010 general election.
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Post by mrhell on Nov 27, 2013 0:45:53 GMT
Was about to post this myself. Holy Schmoly! Knowing the sample size would be useful.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 27, 2013 0:53:52 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 27, 2013 6:13:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2013 8:22:54 GMT
I wondered if those 8 would correspond to the 8 seats UKIP 'won' in May ibn the counties, but looking now it appears they 'won' 10, or maybe 11.
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Pimpernal
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A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Nov 27, 2013 10:31:03 GMT
I don't know how seriously to take this poll. Is Brown like Lord Ashcroft, who collects neutral information and publishes it in a fairly impartial way, or is he trying to ramp up UKIP's vote and create a sense of momentum? You should take it as seriously as you take Survation generally... All their fieldwork and data is available I believe... |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2013 10:33:53 GMT
I am not overly worried about losing this to either UKIP or Labour. If we come 3rd here I will model my hairstyle on Pimps for ever more.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 27, 2013 11:41:08 GMT
I am not overly worried about losing this to either UKIP or Labour. If we come 3rd here I will model my hairstyle on Pimps for ever more. We shall remember that and hold you to it. I pledge the cost of your new cut in the week following the GE. Be prepared Joe I think it is quite likely. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2013 12:01:13 GMT
I am not overly worried about losing this to either UKIP or Labour. If we come 3rd here I will model my hairstyle on Pimps for ever more. We shall remember that and hold you to it. I pledge the cost of your new cut in the week following the GE. Be prepared Joe I think it is quite likely. I don't think much cutting is required to be honest! |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 27, 2013 12:03:38 GMT
We shall remember that and hold you to it. I pledge the cost of your new cut in the week following the GE. Be prepared Joe I think it is quite likely. I don't think much cutting is required to be honest! Oh dear! Might I have to fund extensions or a rug? |
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Post by mrhell on Nov 27, 2013 19:38:55 GMT
Despite my early post, constituency polls tend to be unreliable.
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Post by erlend on Nov 27, 2013 22:23:52 GMT
I think the issue might be more that Joe will not need a haircut during the next Parliament. Or possibly the subsequent one.
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Post by erlend on Nov 27, 2013 22:25:19 GMT
On the subject matter I suspect the poll is right that it is a 3 way marginal. But no more useful than that. But may be a self fulfilling prophecy if UKIP remain polling well nationally.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2013 2:54:23 GMT
On the subject matter I suspect the poll is right that it is a 3 way marginal. But no more useful than that. But may be a self fulfilling prophecy if UKIP remain polling well nationally. The poll is a total dud. It is fixed in favour of UKIP by screwing with the tory figures. In reality the tories won the seat with a 17% majority - in this poll the majority was 4%.... So labour are strongly overstated. UKIP had about twice as many identifiers as they should have done too... The tories will win here in 2015, and probably quite comfortably. If im honest, its a disgrace that these results are being published by a member of the British Polling Council as figures suitable for release. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 28, 2013 3:02:00 GMT
On the subject matter I suspect the poll is right that it is a 3 way marginal. But no more useful than that. But may be a self fulfilling prophecy if UKIP remain polling well nationally. The poll is a total dud. It is fixed in favour of UKIP by screwing with the tory figures. In reality the tories won the seat with a 17% majority - in this poll the majority was 4%.... So labour are strongly overstated. UKIP had about twice as many identifiers as they should have done too... The tories will win here in 2015, and probably quite comfortably. If im honest, its a disgrace that these results are being published by a member of the British Polling Council as figures suitable for release. Care to make an early day forecast for the likely major contenders to nearest whole % point? (Cons, Lab, LibDems, UKIP, Greens). Say with Farage as candidate or an unknown as candidate. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 28, 2013 9:46:21 GMT
On the subject matter I suspect the poll is right that it is a 3 way marginal. But no more useful than that. But may be a self fulfilling prophecy if UKIP remain polling well nationally. The poll is a total dud. It is fixed in favour of UKIP by screwing with the tory figures. In reality the tories won the seat with a 17% majority - in this poll the majority was 4%.... So labour are strongly overstated. UKIP had about twice as many identifiers as they should have done too... The tories will win here in 2015, and probably quite comfortably. If im honest, its a disgrace that these results are being published by a member of the British Polling Council as figures suitable for release. That assumes reliable recall. If there is a big change, that becomes an unsafe assumption. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2013 10:56:45 GMT
The poll is a total dud. It is fixed in favour of UKIP by screwing with the tory figures. In reality the tories won the seat with a 17% majority - in this poll the majority was 4%.... So labour are strongly overstated. UKIP had about twice as many identifiers as they should have done too... The tories will win here in 2015, and probably quite comfortably. If im honest, its a disgrace that these results are being published by a member of the British Polling Council as figures suitable for release. Care to make an early day forecast for the likely major contenders to nearest whole % point? (Cons, Lab, LibDems, UKIP, Greens). Say with Farage as candidate or an unknown as candidate. I don't actually think Farage would do all that much better than a decent, more local candidate (its not his part of Kent) Con 41 Lab 33 UKIP 19 LD 7 IIf farage is the candidate maybe up to 25, tories down to 38, labour to 31, LD to 6. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2013 11:10:26 GMT
Farage was born in Herne which is in the North Thanet constituency and all of about 5 miles outside this constituency
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2013 12:54:55 GMT
That assumes reliable recall. If there is a big change, that becomes an unsafe assumption. In the run-up to the 1997 election, poll samples consistently showed that more of their respondents had voted Labour than Conservative, even though the Tories had won the 1992 election. I remember this giving false hope to some psephologically-aware Tories of my acquaintance at university at the time. A lot of people either don't remember how they voted or don't want to admit it to a pollster. And to be fair, the tories did do less awfully than the polls suggested. We either have a problem with the sample, or a potential for a significant shy tory vote. Most likely both. I very rarely complain about a poll, but I do feel this one is justified. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 28, 2013 12:56:11 GMT
In 1962 pollsters wanted to ask the US electorate, who had only narrowly voted in John F. Kennedy two years before, what they thought of him. When they asked people to recall how they voted, the results showed that Kennedy actually won a landslide.
In early 1974 pollsters wondered what people who had voted for Richard Nixon thought of him after all the Watergate revalations. They discovered that according to voters' recollections, McGovern had won.
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