Prediction Competion - June 2019

[middleenglander]

There are 6 by-elections during June along with 7 postponed polls for 12 seats - a total of 18 seats at stake.

* 2 postponed polls on 6 June, 1 for two seats and 1 for a single seat.
* 1 by-election on 13 June plus 2 postponed polls, again 1 for two seats and 1 for a single seat
* 4 by-elections on 20 June plus 3 postponed polls, 1 for three seats, 1 for two seats and 1 for a single seat
* 1 by-election on 27 June

2 of the by-elections are for District Councils previously contested last month
- the first where a Conservative was the only nomination for a 2 seat ward, the previous seat being previously held by a Lincolnshire Independent
- the other where the Labour Councillor became ineligible following election at the same time as Executive Mayor
2 are in London Boroughs last contested in 2018
1 is for an Unitary Authority last contested in 2017 and
1 is in a Welsh Council last contested in 2017

Labour defend 3 of the by-election seats, 2 following the resignation of the previous councillor and 1 after becoming an Executive Mayor
Independents defend 2 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation whilst sitting as Labour
Lincolnshire Independents defend a seat where there was only one nomination for the two seat ward in May

For the 12 postponed seats, 8 were won by Conservative in 2015, 1 an Independent and 3 are new seats.

There are 17 Conservative candidates for the 18 seats, 16 each for Labour and Liberal Democrats, 8 Green, 4 UKIP, 1 Plaid Cymru along with
8 Independents contesting 6 seats and 3 Localists; Lincolnshire Independent, Island Independent and Mansfield Independent Forum
- a total of 73 candidates for 18 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

For the 2 or 3 member wards the prediction should be based on the average vote for each of the party candidates votes with who will win how many seats.

[phil156]

June 6th prediction Liberal GAIN Herefordshire one, South Staffs difficult one as been no elections for 11 years at a guess. Incumbent Con Win, Liberal win 
Brexit party to win Peterborough

[Tony Otim]

Jun 5, 2019 7:34:04 GMT phil156 said:

June 6th prediction Liberal GAIN Herefordshire one, South Staffs difficult one as been no elections for 11 years at a guess. Incumbent Con Win, Liberal win 
Brexit party to win Peterborough

Hi Phil,

If you want to take part in the competition you need to give percentage vote figures for each candidate/ average percentage for parties in multiple vacancy ones. The parliamentary by-election isn't included in the competition. Have a look at the previous months competitions and you should get an idea how it works. Any questions, don't be shy about asking. New competitors always welcome.

[greenhert]

Herefordshire UA, Ross North: Liberal Democrats 60, Conservative 34, Labour 6.
South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne South West (average vote shares): Conservative 38 (1 win), Green 32 (1 win), Liberal Democrats 23, Labour 7.

[Toylyyev]

Herefordshire UA, Ross North: Liberal Democrat 63, Conservative 30, Labour 7.
South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne South West: μ(Conservatives) 39, Green 29, Liberal Democrat 24, μ(Labour) 8. (Conservatives to win both)

[robbienicoll]

Herefordshire, Ross North: Con 32, Lab 9, LD 59
Wombourne South West, South Staffordshire: Con 42, Lab 10, LD 24, Green 24 (Con to win both)

[Deleted]

Herefordshire, Ross North: Con 32, Lab 9, LD 59
Wombourne South West, South Staffordshire: Con 40, Lab 5, LD 35, Green 20 Con win both

[Tony Otim]

Herefordshire: LD 57.3; Con 34.7; Lab8.0
South Staffs: Con 39.0; Grn 24.9; LD 24.5; Lab 11.5 (2 Con wins)

[Robert Waller]

Herefordshire: LD 58; Con 37; Lab 5
South Staffs: Con 45; Grn 24; LD 24; Lab 7 (2 Con wins)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

HEREFORDSHIRE Ross North: L Dem 67, C 26, Lab 7
SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE Wombourne South West: C 56, L Dem 22, Lab 13, GP 9. (Winners 2 x C)

[yellowperil]

Herefordshire, Ross North: Con 31, Lab 9, LD 60
South Staffs, Wombourne SW: Con 52, Lab 8, LD 22, Green 18. Con x2 wins

[ricmk]

Herefordshire: LD 61 Con 34 Lab 5
South Staffordshire: Con 46 Green 22 LD 22 Lab 10 (both Con wins)

[iainbhx]

Ross North (Herefordshire): LDm win: LDm 53 Con 37 Lab 10
Wombourne SW (South Staffs): both Con Win: Con 44 LDm 23 Grn 21 Lab 12

[olympian95]

Herefordshire: LD 63, Con 32, Lab 5

South Staffs: Con 51, LD 20, Green 17, Lab 12

[olympian95]

Two Con wins in S Staffs obvs

[Right Leaning]

Herefordshire, Ross North: LD 58, C 32, Lab 10.
South Staffs, Wombourne SW: C 42, LD 28, Gn 23, Lab 7, Con x2 wins

[andrewp]

Herefordshire, Ross North, Lib Dem 59, Con 35, Lab 6
South Staffordshire, Wombourne SW Con 44, Lib Dem 25, Green 21, Lab 10 2x Con win

[johnloony]

Herefordshire: LD 59.7 Con 32.5 Lab 7.8
S Staffs: Con 43.8 LD 24.5 Green 23.1 Lab 8.6

[middleenglander]

14 entrants for the first week of June. Tony Otim gets 0.1 additional faults for adding to 99.9% in South Staffordshire, Wombourne South West whilst John Loony gets 2 x 10 additional faults for posting after 10 o'clock.

Herefordshire, Ross North: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority over Conservative from 16% (iainbhx) to 41% David Boothroyd
South Staffordshire, Wombourne South West: 100% Conservative leads, 12 Conservative with 2 seats, greenrobinhood 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat
- John Loony does not specify who takes the seats but figures suggest 2 x Conservative

[Robert Waller]

Think a victory for David Boothroyd this week, followed by Olympian and Yellow Peril ...
Awaiting official confirmation!