Prediction Competion - June 2019

[middleenglander]

Jun 18, 2019 19:31:01 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It looks to me like they are entirely separate, unconnected Independents.

I have set up the system on the basis that there is a slate of three Independents.

[Tony Otim]

Isle of Wight: Paler 36.5; IIN 27.5; Con 15.7; UKIP 9.0; LD 8.1; Lab 3.2
Merton: Lab 35.5; Con 30.4; LD 24.6; UKIP 5.1; Grn 4.4
Neath PT: Hughes 33.8; PC 29.3; Hurley 17.1; Lab 13.2; LD 6.6
Wandsworth: Lab 57.4; Con 18.6; LD 17.1; Grn 6.9
Forest of Dean: Ind 34.9; Con 27.9; Grn 17.4; LD 12.0; Lab 7.8 (2x Ind, 1 x Con elected)
Salford: Lab 44.2; Con 30.2; UKIP 11.2; Grn 8.4; LD 6.0
South Ribble: Con 52.9; Lab 30.0; LD 17.1 (2XCon elected)

[greenhert]

(by-elections)

Isle of Wight UA, Whippingham & Osborne: Independent (Paler) 36, Island Independent Network 29, Conservative 14, Liberal Democrats 9, UKIP 7, Labour 5.
Merton LBC, Cannon Hill: Labour 35, Liberal Democrats 27, Conservative 27, Green 8, UKIP 3.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Pelenna: Independent (Hughes) 30, Plaid Cymru 27, Independent (Hurley) 22, Labour 14, Liberal Democrats 7.
Wandsworth LBC, Furzedown: Labour 55, Liberal Democrats 19, Conservative 19, Green 7.

(deferred elections)

Forest of Dean DC, Newent & Taynton: Independents 35, Green 27, Conservative 22, Liberal Democrats 10, Labour 6 (2xInd, 1xGreen elected).
Salford MBC, Walkden South: Labour 43, Conservative 32, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 8, UKIP 7.
South Ribble DC, Farrington West: Conservative 50, Labour 35, Liberal Democrats 15 (2xConservative elected).

[robbienicoll]

Whippingham and Osborne, Isle of Wight: Con 20, Lab 6, LD 13, UKIP 1, Ind 35, IIN 25
Cannon Hill, Merton: Con 33, Lab 30, LD 25, Green 9, UKIP 3
Pelenna, Neath Port Talbot: Lab 25, LD 4, PC 15, Ind (Hughes) 34, Ind (Hurley) 22
Furzedown, Wandsworth: Con 20, Lab 48, LD 24, Green 8
Newent and Taynton, Forest of Dean: Con 37, Lab 10, LD 17, Green 5, Ind 31 - 2x Con, 1x Ind elected
Walkden South, Salford: Con 36, Lab 42, LD 13, Green 7, UKIP 2
Farrington West, South Ribble: Con 40, Lab 35, LD 25 - 2x Con elected

[Deleted]

Whippingham and Osborne, Isle of Wight: Con 15, Lab 10, LD 20, UKIP 5, Ind 30, IIN 20
Cannon Hill, Merton: Con 30, Lab 25, LD 20, Green 20, UKIP 5
Pelenna, Neath Port Talbot: Lab 20, LD 10, PC 20, Ind (Hughes) 30, Ind (Hurley) 20
Furzedown, Wandsworth: Con 15, Lab 40, LD 30, Green 5
Newent and Taynton, Forest of Dean: Con 30, Lab 5, LD 20, Green 10, Ind 35 - 1 Con, 2 Ind elected
Walkden South, Salford: Con 36, Lab 42, LD 13, Green 7, UKIP 2
Farrington West, South Ribble: Con 40, Lab 35, LD 25 - 2 Con elected

[Davıd Boothroyd]

FOREST OF DEAN Newent and Taynton: Ind 36, C 32, GP 14, L Dem 11, Lab 7. Elected Ind, Ind, C
ISLE OF WIGHT Whippingham and Osborne: Ind Paler 42, C 20, Lab 15, Ind Lucioni 10, L Dem 8, UKIP 5
MERTON Cannon Hill: Lab 39, C 35, L Dem 17, UKIP 6, GP 3
NEATH PORT TALBOT Pelenna: PC 36, Ind Hughes 22, Ind Hurley 17, Lab 15, L Dem 10
SALFORD Walkden South: C 44, Lab 37, L Dem 8, UKIP 7, GP 4
SOUTH RIBBLE Farrington West: C 57, L Dem 25, Lab 18. Elected C, C.
WANDSWORTH Furzedown: Lab 50, L Dem 23, C 21, GP 6

[Robert Waller]

FOREST OF DEAN Newent and Taynton: Ind 35, C 30, GP 15, L Dem 10, Lab 10. Elected Indx2 Cx1
ISLE OF WIGHT Whippingham and Osborne: Ind Paler 32, C 20, Lab 10, Ind Lucioni 24, L Dem 8, UKIP 6
MERTON Cannon Hill: Lab 40, C 28, L Dem 22, UKIP 5, GP 5
NEATH PORT TALBOT Pelenna: PC 32, Ind Hughes 30, Ind Hurley 15, Lab 17, L Dem 6
SALFORD Walkden South: C 34, Lab 40, L Dem 8, UKIP 12, GP 6
SOUTH RIBBLE Farington West: C 52, L Dem 16, Lab 32. Elected Cx2
WANDSWORTH Furzedown: Lab 59, L Dem 20, C 16, GP 5

[yellowperil]

Isle of Wight, Whippingham & Osborne: Con 20, Lab 9, LD 9, UKIP 4, IIN 23, Ind 35
Merton, Cannon Hill: Con 33, Lab 37, LD 24,  Green 4, UKIP 2
Neath Port Talbot, Pelenna: Lab 15, LD 5, PC 35, Ind Hughes 25, Ind Hurley 20
Wandsworth, Furzedown: Con 15, Lab 49, LD 30, Green 6

Forest of Dean, Newent & Taynton: Con 31, Lab 8, LD 9,Green 14, Ind 38. (Ind x2. Con x1)
Salford, Walkden S: Con 38, Lab 36, LD 8, Green 10, UKIP 8
South Ribble, Farrington W: Con 53, Lab 30, LD 17, (Conx2)

[Toylyyev]

Isle of Wight UA, Whippingham & Osborne: Island Independent Network 27, Independent 26.9, Conservative 21, Liberal Democrat 11.1, Labour 9, UKIP 5.
Merton LBC, Cannon Hill: Liberal Democrat 28.1, Labour 28, Conservative 27.9, Green 13, UKIP 3.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Pelenna: Plaid Cymru 33, Independent Hughes 28, Independent Hurley 20, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 3.
Wandsworth LBC, Furzedown: Labour 36, Green 35.9, Liberal Democrat 16, Conservative 12.1.

Forest of Dean DC, Newent & Taynton (3 seats): μ(Independents) 30, μ(Conservatives) 27, μ(Greens) 25, μ(Liberal Democrats) 11, Labour 7. (Conservatives, Greens, and Independents to win one each)
Salford MBC, Walkden South: Labour 35, Conservative 34, Green 12, Liberal Democrat 10, UKIP 9.
South Ribble DC, Farrington West (2 seats): μ(Conservatives) 55, μ(Labour) 29, μ(Liberal Democrats) 16. (Conservatives to win both)    

[iainbhx]

Isle of Wight UA, Whippingham & Osborne: Island Ind Network 30 Con 27 Ind 27 LDm 10 Lab 6
Merton, Cannon Hill: Lab 34 Con 31 LDm 22 Grn 8 UKIP 5
Neath Port Talbot, Pelenna: PC 33 Ind Hughes 29 Ind Hurley 23 Lab 13 LDm 2
Wandsworth, Furzedown: Lab 45 Con 20 LDm 19 Grn 16
Forest of Dean, Newent & Taynton: Con 35 Ind 31 Grn 15 LDm 12 Lab 7 (2 Ind and 1 Con win)
Salford, Walkden S: Lab 40 Con 38 UKIP 10 LDm 9 Grn 3
South Ribble, Farrington W: Con 50 Lab 33 LDm 17 (2 Con win)

[Right Leaning]

FOREST OF DEAN Newent and Taynton: Ind 37, C 30, Gn 14, LD 10, Lab 9. Elected Indx2 Cx1
ISLE OF WIGHT Whippingham and Osborne: Ind (Island Ind) 34, Ind 24, C 19, Lab 9, LD 8, UKIP 6
MERTON Cannon Hill: Lab 38, C 30, LD 20, Gn 7, UKIP 5
NEATH PORT TALBOT Pelenna: PC 35, Ind Hughes 28, Ind Hurley 16, Lab 15, LD 6
SALFORD Walkden South: Lab 40, C 34, UKIP 14, LD 8, Gn 4
SOUTH RIBBLE Farington West: C 50, Lab 34, LD 16. Elected Cx2
WANDSWORTH Furzedown: Lab 54, C 21, LDem 19, Gn 6

[andrewp]

Forest of Dean, Newent and Taynton. ind 33, Con 27, Green 15, Lib Dem 13, Lab 12. 2 Ind and 1 Con elected
Isle of Wight, Whippingham and Osborne Ind Paler 34, Con 25, Ind Network 22, Lab 8, UKIP 6, Lib Dem 5
Merton, Cannon Hill Lab 38, Con 30, Lib Dem 21, Green 8, UKIP 3
Neath Port Talbot, Pelenna PC 30, Ind Hurley 27, Ind Hughes 25, Lab14, Lib Dem 4
Salford, Walkden South Lab 40, Con 37, UKIP 10, Green 6, LD 7
South Ribble, Farington West Con 49, Lab 34, Lib Dem 17. 2x Con elected
Wandsworth, Furzedown Lab 55, Lib Dem 18, Con 15, Green 12

[ricmk]

FOREST OF DEAN: Con 33 Ind 32 Green 13 Lib Dem 12 Lab 10. 2 Cons and 1 Indy.
ISLE OF WIGHT: Ind Paler 28 Con 23 Lab 16 Ind Lucioni 15 L Dem 12 UKIP 6
MERTON: Lab 40, Lib Dem 35 Con 15 Green 8 UKIP 2
NEATH PORT TALBOT: Plaid 35 Ind Hughes 28 Lab 20 Ind Hurley 14 Lib Dem 3
SALFORD: Lab 45 Con 33 Lib Dem 12 UKIP 5 GP 5
SOUTH RIBBLE: Con 54 Lab 30 Lib Dem 16. 2 Tories elected.
WANDSWORTH: Lab 54 Lib Dem 28 Con 13 GP 5

[middleenglander]

13 entrants this week with nothing from Olympian95. priceofdawn gets 10 additional faults for adding to only 90% in Wandsworth, Furzedown.

Forest of Dean, Newent & Taynton: 9 have Independents ahead on average, iainbhx, ricmk & robbienicoll Conservative ahead with John Looney all 5 equal
- John Loony only specifies Conservative win which I take as 3 Conservatives elected.
Isle of Wight, Whippingham & Osborne; 9 Independent Paler wins, iainbhx, John Loony, Right Leaning & Toylyyev Island Independent gain
Merton, Cannon Hill: 10 Labour hold, priceofdawn & robbienicoll Conservative gain, Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain
Neath Port Talbot, Pelenna: 8 Plaid Cymru gain, greenrobinhood, John Loony, priceofdawn, robbienicoll & Tony Otim Independent Hughes win
Salford, Walkden South: 10 Labour gain from Conservative, John Loony, priceofdawn & Yellow Peril Conservative hold
South Ribble, Farington West: 100% Conservative top on average with 12 two Conservative holds & John Loony not specifying but must be 2 holds
Wandsworth, Furzedown: 100% Labour hold, 7 Liberal Democrat second, 4 Conservative, 1 Green & 1 Conservative / Liberal Democrat joint second

[yellowperil]

Looking at all the mayhem among us would -be predictors, olympian95 may have chosen a good week to opt out. Sounds as though some of us may improve on his 100 faults per election, but not by much and with a lot more effort.

[middleenglander]

Jun 21, 2019 0:27:39 GMT yellowperil said:

Looking at all the mayhem among us would -be predictors, olympian95 may have chosen a good week to opt out. Sounds as though some of us may improve on his 100 faults per election, but not by much and with a lot more effort.

With one result to come I very provisionally make for the month to date Yellow Peril marginally in the lead from iainbhx closely followed by Robert Waller and then andrewp. Full results in the morning

[yellowperil]

Jun 21, 2019 0:39:32 GMT middleenglander said:

Jun 21, 2019 0:27:39 GMT yellowperil said:

Looking at all the mayhem among us would -be predictors, olympian95 may have chosen a good week to opt out. Sounds as though some of us may improve on his 100 faults per election, but not by much and with a lot more effort.

With one result to come I very provisionally make for the month to date Yellow Peril marginally in the lead from iainbhx closely followed by Robert Waller and then andrewp. Full results in the morning

thanks for that news, ME- I looked down the results and I seemed so far out I couldn't bring myself to make the calculations! My only" hope" had been that everyone else would have done just as badly.

[andrewp]

Jun 21, 2019 0:48:10 GMT yellowperil said:

Jun 21, 2019 0:39:32 GMT middleenglander said:

With one result to come I very provisionally make for the month to date Yellow Peril marginally in the lead from iainbhx closely followed by Robert Waller and then andrewp. Full results in the morning

thanks for that news, ME- I looked down the results and I seemed so far out I couldn't bring myself to make the calculations! My only" hope" had been that everyone else would have done just as badly.

It always looked a tricky week for predictions, particularly the Isle Of Wight, Neath and the Forest of Dean. Anything could happen in the Forest of Dean yet!! . I considered an Ind Hurley win in Pelenna and am very annoyed with myself! 

[Tony Otim]

Jun 21, 2019 7:24:08 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 21, 2019 0:48:10 GMT yellowperil said:

thanks for that news, ME- I looked down the results and I seemed so far out I couldn't bring myself to make the calculations! My only" hope" had been that everyone else would have done just as badly.

It always looked a tricky week for predictions, particularly the Isle Of Wight, Neath and the Forest of Dean. Anything could happen in the Forest of Dean yet!! . I considered an Ind Hurley win in Pelenna and am very annoyed with myself! 

I feel there was a bit of herding going on - those contests should probably have had a greater variety of predictions than they did...

[yellowperil]

Jun 21, 2019 7:24:08 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 21, 2019 0:48:10 GMT yellowperil said:

thanks for that news, ME- I looked down the results and I seemed so far out I couldn't bring myself to make the calculations! My only" hope" had been that everyone else would have done just as badly.

It always looked a tricky week for predictions, particularly the Isle Of Wight, Neath and the Forest of Dean. Anything could happen in the Forest of Dean yet!! . I considered an Ind Hurley win in Pelenna and am very annoyed with myself! 

Given that you still won in Pelenna maybe you shouldn't beat yourself up too much! A lot of us would have "considered" a  Hurley win, I guess like me going for PC as we weren't able to decide between the two Indies!