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Post by middleenglander on Jun 7, 2019 21:34:47 GMT
Week 1| Authority | Herefordshire | South
Staffordshire | Week 1 | Week 1 | Ward | Ross North | Wombourne
South West | faults | position | andrewp
| 32.6 | 35.0 | 67.7 | 5th | David Boothroyd | 16.3 | 25.4 | 41.7 | 1st | greenrobinhood | 30.6 | 49.2+2.5 | 82.3 | 13th | iainbhx | 44.3 | 35.0 | 79.3 | 10th | John Loony | 30.9+10 | 35.4+10 | 86.3 | 14th | Olympian95 | 26.6 | 21.0 | 47.7 | 2nd | priceofdawn | 32.3 | 49.2 | 81.5 | 12th | rickmk | 30.6 | 31.0 | 61.7 | 4th | Right Leaning | 34.3 | 41.2 | 75.5 | 9th | robbienicoll | 32.3 | 39.0 | 71.3 | 7th | Robert Waller | 36.6 | 35.2 | 71.8 | 8th | Tony Otim | 35.6 | 44.9+0.1 | 80.7 | 11th | Toylyyev | 24.3 | 45.2 | 69.5 | 6th | Yellow Peril | 30.3 | 19.2 | 49.5 | 3rd | Total faults | 437.7+10 | 506.1+0.1+2.5+10 | 966.4 |
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There is 1 by-election along with 2 postponed elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 7, 2019 23:53:45 GMT
If I hadn't been an hour late (and got 20 bonus points) I would have been in 4th place. To get my predictions I just averaged everybody else's.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 8, 2019 6:20:44 GMT
If I hadn't been an hour late (and got 20 bonus points) I would have been in 4th place. To get my predictions I just averaged everybody else's.As a confession, it's not quite up there with Michael Gove, is it? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 8, 2019 8:03:32 GMT
Congratulations to David, who is in quite a purple patch at the moment. I'm still boggling that somehow I managed to "win" South Staffordshire, given that I didn't have a clue what was happening there.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 8, 2019 19:24:01 GMT
Congratulations to David, who is in quite a purple patch at the moment. I'm still boggling that somehow I managed to "win" South Staffordshire, given that I didn't have a clue what was happening there.Often an advantage! |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 8, 2019 20:11:35 GMT
If I hadn't been an hour late (and got 20 bonus points) I would have been in 4th place. To get my predictions I just averaged everybody else's.As a confession, it's not quite up there with Michael Gove, is it? Weighing the mean with the positions from the May form guide and recalibrating to 100 improves that score by 0.4 points (31.4+34.5), assuming that i did type in accurately.  |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jun 8, 2019 23:47:09 GMT
I suggest that one week we make it a blind contest - all predictions have to go to middleenglander by private message. Then we can see who’s just as good without seeing all the other entries. I fear I might be one of those who’d mess up that way. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 9, 2019 6:33:51 GMT
I suggest that one week we make it a blind contest - all predictions have to go to middleenglander by private message. Then we can see who’s just as good without seeing all the other entries. I fear I might be one of those who’d mess up that way. An interesting suggestion. It is fairly obvious that some people submit their predictions totally uninfluenced by any other posts, but we do tend to see a bit of herding which suggests some of us are susceptible to a bit of influence. I always note down my own prediction on paper first, but before submitting do glance at what other folk have said (I'm usually about half way, sometime after midnight), and have been known to tweak my answers by a point or two if I'm badly out of line with people I think might have a better idea than I have in a particular place. Quite often I later wish I'd left well alone! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2019 12:02:20 GMT
Some real stabs in the dark this week:
North Kesteven: Lincs Ind 32.3; Con 26.9; Greetham 12.3; LD 10.6; Shanahan-Kluth 9.7; Lab 8.2
Broxtowe: LD 38.5; Con 36.4; Lab 25.1 (1 LD, 1 Con elected)
North Devon: LD 48.9; Con 31.2; Grn 13.8; Lab 6.1
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Post by johnloony on Jun 12, 2019 19:56:19 GMT
North Kesteven: Con 40 LD 30 Ind 10 Ind 10 Ind 10 Lab 0
Broxtowe: LD 50 Con 30 Lab 20
North Devon: LD 40 Con 30 Lab 20 Green 10
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Post by greenhert on Jun 12, 2019 20:15:36 GMT
North Kesteven DC, Billinghay, Martin & North Kyme: Conservative 35, Lincolnshire Independents 22, Liberal Democrats 18, Independent (Greetham) 9, Independent (Shanahan-Kluth) 9, Labour 7.
Broxtowe BC, Stapleford South East: Liberal Democrats 51, Conservative 32, Labour 17.
North Devon DC, Chittlehampton: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 31, Green 15, Labour 9.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 12, 2019 21:17:50 GMT
Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme, North Kesteven: Con 25, Lab 7, LD 15, Lincs Ind 34, Ind (Greetham) 10, Ind (Shanahan-Khan) 9
Stapleford South East, Broxtowe: Con 36, Lab 20, LD 44 (2x LD elected)
Chittlehampton, North Devon: Con 30, Lab 7, LD 53, Green 10
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2019 21:24:04 GMT
North Kesteven: Con 37 LD 33 Ind 15 Ind 10 Ind 2 Lab 3
Broxtowe: LD 60 Con 25 Lab 15
North Devon: LD 50 Con 25 Lab 12 Green 13
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 12, 2019 22:23:52 GMT
North Kesteven DC, Billinghay, Martin & North Kyme: Lincolnshire Independents 33, Conservative 32.9, Independent Shanahan-Kluth 10.1, Independent Greetham 9, Labour 8, Liberal Democrats 7.
Broxtowe BC, Stapleford South East: μ(Liberal Democrats) 43, μ(Conservatives) 32, μ(Labour) 25. (Liberal Democrats to win both)
North Devon DC, Chittlehampton: Liberal Democrat 46, Conservative 40, Green 8, Labour 6.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 12, 2019 22:37:40 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 12, 2019 23:15:26 GMT
BROXTOWE Stapleford South East: L Dem 45, Lab 33, C 22. (Winners L Dem x 2)
NORTH DEVON Chittlehampton: L Dem 45, C 34, GP 13, Lab 8
NORTH KESTEVEN Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme: Lincs Ind 42, C 27, L Dem 10, Ind Greetham 9, Lab 7, Ind Shanahan-Kluth 5
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 12, 2019 23:34:37 GMT
BROXTOWE Stapleford South East: L Dem 36, Lab 34, C 30. Two LD elected.
NORTH DEVON Chittlehampton: L Dem 33, C 42, GP 15, Lab 10
NORTH KESTEVEN Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme: Lincs Ind 32, C 35, L Dem 10, Ind Greetham 9, Lab 9, Ind Shanahan-Kluth 5
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 13, 2019 3:17:24 GMT
North Kesteven, Billinghay Martin &North Kyme: Con 30, Lab 8, LD 10, LI 35, Ind Greetham 10,Ind S-K 7
Broxtowe,Stapleford SE: Con 32, Lab 23, LD 45 (LD x2 to win)
North Devon,Chittlehampton: Con 38, Lab 9,LD 42, Green 11.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 13, 2019 5:05:06 GMT
I must admit, two of this weeks have been very difficult to call. I spent far, far too long on Stapleford trying to decide if there was going to be a split.
Billinghay Martin & North Kyme (North Kevesten): Con 34, Ind Greetham 20, Lincs Ind 17, Lab 13, LDm 11, Ind Shanahan-Kluth 5 CON win
Stapleford SE (Broxtowe): LDm 41 Lab 36 Con 23 2*LDM win
Chittlehampton (North Devon): Con 37 Grn 29 LDm 25 Lab 9 CON win
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jun 13, 2019 6:14:19 GMT
BROXTOWE: LD 40 Lab 32 Con 28 (Lib Dem win x 2)
NORTH DEVON: LD 55 C 30 Green 10 Lab 5
NORTH KESTEVEN: Lincs Ind 35 Con 30 LD 15 Ind Greetham 12 Ind Shanahan-Kluth 5 Lab 3
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