Prediction Competion - June 2019

[andrewp]

Broxtowe, Stapleford South East Lib Dem 43, Con 30, Lab 27 ( 2 x Lib Dem win)
North Devon, Chittlehampton Lib Dem 43, Con 38, Green 11, Lab 8
North Kesteven, Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme Lin Ind 35, Con 33, Lib Dem 11, Ind Greetham 9, Lab 7, Ind Shanahan-Kluth 5

[Right Leaning]

Broxtowe, Stapleford SE: LD 42, C 32, Lab 26 (LD x2 to win)
North Devon, Chittlehampton: LD 42, C 38, Gn 12, Lab 8
North Kesteven, Billinghay Martin & North Kyme: Linc Ind 39, Con 33, LD 11, Lab 7, Ind Geetham 5, Ind S-K 5

[carlton43]

I wonder if it is too early for there to be a post-May effect giving the Conservatives an uptick? There is the major media concentration on the party and quite a few policy elements that are grass-roots-friendly have been aired. Could there be some surprises here? Or at least one?

[yellowperil]

Jun 13, 2019 6:47:14 GMT carlton43 said:

I wonder if it is too early for there to be a post-May effect giving the Conservatives an uptick? There is the major media concentration on the party and quite a few policy elements that are grass-roots-friendly have been aired. Could there be some surprises here? Or at least one?

Yes I had wondered whether that might be the case, improbable though it seems, but decided I would prefer to discount it, as it seems had most of my peers , though a few have gone for Con wins in rural Kesteven and a couple in rural Devon, areas which in more Tory -friendly times would have looked nailed on.I have chosen to ignore such nonsense

[olympian95]

Broxtowe: LD 41, Lab 31, Con 28 (LD win x 2)

North Devon: LD 55, Con 29, Green 11, Lab 5

North Kesteven:
Lincs Ind 40, C 29, L Dem 12, Lab 8, Ind Greetham 7, Ind Shanahan-Kluth 4

[middleenglander]

14 entrants this week, all within time and adding to 100%.

Broxtowe, Stapleford South East: 100% Liberal Democrat ahead: 10 predict 2 Liberal Democrat wins, Tony Otim 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat
- greenrobinhood, John Loony and priceofdawn did not specify who would win
North Devon, Chittlehampton:  12 Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, iainbhx and Robert Waller Conservative gain
North Kesteven, Billinghay, Martin & North Kyme:  9 Lincolnshire Independent hold, greenrobinhood, iainbhx, John Loony, priceofdawn & Robert Waller Conservative gain
- price of dawn did not differentiate between Lincolnshire Independent and other 2 Independents so gets 29 additional faults
- John Loony  likewise did not differentiate but gave all three 10% so is not penalised.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Iain for the week and Yellowperil for the month to date.

I had a last minute change of heart in North Kesteven and swapped the Conservative and the Lincs Ind round - should have stuck with my original thought.

[carlton43]

Jun 13, 2019 6:59:23 GMT yellowperil said:

Jun 13, 2019 6:47:14 GMT carlton43 said:

I wonder if it is too early for there to be a post-May effect giving the Conservatives an uptick? There is the major media concentration on the party and quite a few policy elements that are grass-roots-friendly have been aired. Could there be some surprises here? Or at least one?

Yes I had wondered whether that might be the case, improbable though it seems, but decided I would prefer to discount it, as it seems had most of my peers , though a few have gone for Con wins in rural Kesteven and a couple in rural Devon, areas which in more Tory -friendly times would have looked nailed on.I have chosen to ignore such nonsense

Well?  What is your view now?

I think it is too early to consider this evidence of a recovery for us but it is certainly evidence of the end of decline at least.

I thought we would see a bit of a bounce with the demise of May, but a better bounce on the election of a replacement virtually whoever is in place.

If it is to be Johnson then that will be the best news tactically for us in electoral terms even though I see a lot of dissent in these columns for that view.

[yellowperil]

Jun 14, 2019 7:55:49 GMT carlton43 said:

Jun 13, 2019 6:59:23 GMT yellowperil said:

Yes I had wondered whether that might be the case, improbable though it seems, but decided I would prefer to discount it, as it seems had most of my peers , though a few have gone for Con wins in rural Kesteven and a couple in rural Devon, areas which in more Tory -friendly times would have looked nailed on.I have chosen to ignore such nonsense

Well?  What is your view now?

I think it is too early to consider this evidence of a recovery for us but it is certainly evidence of the end of decline at least.

I thought we would see a bit of a bounce with the demise of May, but a better bounce on the election of a replacement virtually whoever is in place.

If it is to be Johnson then that will be the best news tactically for us in electoral terms even though I see a lot of dissent in these columns for that view.

I accept that you have a good debating point about your Tory uptick in the light of May's departure, and these results seem at first to give some credence to it. I think I was conceding there was at least the possibility of some short term gain of that sort, though I was inclined to discount it. At first sight it looks as though I was wrong to do so and you were right. However.....
the evidence comes mainly from two deeply rural areas of Devon and Lincolnshire, where there will undoubtedly be an innate conservatism, if not necessarily Conservatism. I did say that in normal times they would be nailed on for the Tories, and that might have been for official Conservatives or maybe Condependents. In the event the Conservatives were able to hang in there in the present climate mainly due to a split opposition: Green/ Lib Dem in Devon, and various breeds of independent in Kesteven. They probably would not have survived in either case against a single focussed  opponent. And in Stapleford we won rather more comfortably and very much as I had expected, nothing to see there really. As for a Boris Bounce, time will tell, but I don't think if there is such a thing that it will last long in the face of reality.

[johnloony]

Will it be necessary to re-calculate all the Broxtowe scores because of the misprint?

[middleenglander]

Jun 14, 2019 23:13:45 GMT johnloony said:

Will it be necessary to re-calculate all the Broxtowe scores because of the misprint?

Yes, but we are moving house tomorrow (after a year in rented we have found a house to buy) so will be some time next week before I amend the figures ahead of next Thursday.

[middleenglander]

Week 2 - revised for amended second Labour vote in Broxtowe

Authority	Broxtowe	North Devon	North Kesteven	Week 2	Week 2	Week 1	Week 1 & 2	Week 1 & 2
Ward	Stapleford South East	Chittlehampton	Billinghay, Martin  & North Kyme	faults	position	faults	faults	position
andrewp	4.7	43.3+10	34.6+10	102.6	3rd	67.7	170.3	4th
David Boothroyd	15.4	47.3+10	46.6+10	129.4	8th	41.7	171.0	5th
greenrobinhood	16.6	49.3+10	35.0	110.9	7th	82.3	193.3	9th
iainbhx	21.4	14.0	43.2	78.7	1st	79.3	158.0	3rd
John Loony	10.6	61.3+10	60.0	141.9	12th	86.3	228.2	13th
Olympian95	11.4	61.3+10	46.6+10	139.4	11th	47.7	187.0	8th
priceofdawn	29.3	65.3+10	75.8	180.4	14th	81.5	261.9	14th
rickmk	13.4	61.3+10	43.8+10	138.6	10th	61.7	200.3	10th
Right Leaning	6.7	41.3+10	42.6+10	110.6	6th	75.5	186.1	7th
robbienicoll	13.2	61.3+10	48.6+10	143.2	13th	71.3	214.5	12th
Robert Waller	18.7	31.4	30.6	80.7	2nd	71.8	152.5	1st
Tony Otim	14.0+2.5	51.3+10	43.0+10	130.9	9th	80.7	211.6	11th
Toylyyev	5.2	45.4+10	38.1+10	108.7	5th	69.5	178.2	6th
Yellow Peril	5.2	43.3+10	38.6+10	107.2	4th	49.5	156.7	2nd
Total faults	185.9+2.5	677.5+120	627.2+90	1,703.1		966.4	2,669.5

After consideration, I have not awarded priceofdawn any additional penalty faults as I have entered 0% for the Lincolnshire Independent and two Independent candidates in North Kesteven which I believe is a sufficient penalty.  His total came to 100% but with insufficient information to determine the percentages for each of these three candidates.

I have again been generous in not faulting greenrobinhood, John Loony and priceofdawn for failing to predict who the two elected in Broxtowe would be; however the percentage predictions would make it all but impossible for any other candidate than two Liberal Democrats to be elected.  However, Tony Otim's forecast of 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat stands as his predicted percentages could have given this outcome and he gets 2½ additional faults.

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 4 by-elections and 3 postponed elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to andrewp for taking the revised win in Stapleford and Robert Waller for the revised lead overall.

( He says through gritted teeth  )

[andrewp]

Jun 16, 2019 9:55:57 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to andrewp for taking the revised win in Stapleford and Robert Waller for the revised lead overall.

( He says through gritted teeth  )

Err thanks,

i havent been following this that closely. I assume we are using average vote for multiple vacancy elections then?

Just out of pedantic interest, in a double election where the result was
Party A 400/300
Party B 375/370

Who would attract the wrong winner faults? A?

[middleenglander]

Jun 16, 2019 10:07:25 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 16, 2019 9:55:57 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to andrewp for taking the revised win in Stapleford and Robert Waller for the revised lead overall.

( He says through gritted teeth  )

Err thanks,

i havent been following this that closely. I assume we are using average vote for multiple vacancy elections then?

Just out of pedantic interest, in a double election where the result was
Party A 400/300
Party B 375/370

Who would attract the wrong winner faults? A?

Assuming no other candidates, Party B gets a 51.56% share of the votes whilst Party A gets 48.44%.
- anyone predicting Party A getting the larger share hence gets 5 additional faults whilst those predicting Party B gets no additional faults.

Party A and Party B each get 1 Councillor.
- anyone predicting either Party A or Party B is successful for both their candidate gets 2½ additional faults.

[johnloony]

I predict:

Isle of Wight: IIN 30% Ind 20% Con 19% LD 16% Lab 8% UKIP 7%
Merton: Lab 42% Con 35% LD 14% Green 6% UKIP3%
NeathPT: IndHug 30% IndHur 29% PC 20% Lab 11% LD 10%
Wandsworth: Lab 58% Con 15% LD 14% Green 13%
Forest of Dean: Con 20% Lab 20% Green 20% Ind 20% LD 20% EDIT: predict Con win
Salford: Con 47% Lab 37% LD 10% Green 3% UKIP 3%
SRibble: Con 72% Lab 19% LD 9%
Mansfield: MIF 44% Lab 39% Con 16% UKIP 1%

[Tony Otim]

Jun 17, 2019 14:14:57 GMT johnloony said:

I predict:

Isle of Wight: IIN 30% Ind 20% Con 19% LD 16% Lab 8% UKIP 7%
Merton: Lab 42% Con 35% LD 14% Green 6% LD 3%
NeathPT: IndHug 30% IndHur 29% PC 20% Lab 11% LD 10%
Wandsworth: Lab 58% Con 15% LD 14% Green 13%
Forest of Dean: Con 20% Lab 20% Green 20% Ind 20% LD 20%
Salford: Con 47% Lab 37% LD 10% Green 3% UKIP 3%
SRibble: Con 72% Lab 19% LD 9%
Mansfield: MIF 44% Lab 39% Con 16% UKIP 1%

I assume that not picking actual winners in Forest of Dean is intentional, but is having 2 Lib Dems and no UKIP in Merton?

[johnloony]

Jun 17, 2019 14:35:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 17, 2019 14:14:57 GMT johnloony said:

I predict:

Isle of Wight: IIN 30% Ind 20% Con 19% LD 16% Lab 8% UKIP 7%
Merton: Lab 42% Con 35% LD 14% Green 6% LD 3%
NeathPT: IndHug 30% IndHur 29% PC 20% Lab 11% LD 10%
Wandsworth: Lab 58% Con 15% LD 14% Green 13%
Forest of Dean: Con 20% Lab 20% Green 20% Ind 20% LD 20%
Salford: Con 47% Lab 37% LD 10% Green 3% UKIP 3%
SRibble: Con 72% Lab 19% LD 9%
Mansfield: MIF 44% Lab 39% Con 16% UKIP 1%

I assume that not picking actual winners in Forest of Dean is intentional, but is having 2 Lib Dems and no UKIP in Merton?

Oops - corrected

[andrewp]

In the Forest of Dean, we have 13 candidates. 3 x Con, 3 x Green, 3 x Ld, 1x Lab, 3 x Ind

For clarification, are we treating the 3 X Ind as separate candidates or one slate?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It looks to me like they are entirely separate, unconnected Independents.