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Post by iainbhx on Sept 29, 2019 20:45:32 GMT
The final results of the Austrian election of 2019 are: OVP: 38.4% (73 seats) SPO: 21.5% (41 seats) FPO: 17.3% (32 seats) Green: 12.4% (23 seats) NEOS: 7.4% (14 seats) JETZT: 1.9% KPO: 0.7% WANDL: 0.4% Others (parties who did not stand in all Lander and made no impact on the result): 0.2%. Final results are Thursday. There's around 1 million postals to be counted tomorrow and the Wahlkarte proper on Thursday. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 21:37:31 GMT
So, did the vote of no confidence pay off for the opposition overall? Clearly it did for the Greens, but not for the SPO. But Kutz looks now to be the most powerful PM in recent history in Austria, perhaps he is now the Merkel of Austria? Suspect the opposition could have done with him getting tarnished by the FPO for a few more years?... After my by far worst misprediction forever (ÖVP 32.5%, FPÖ 22.0%,...) the "si tacuisses, philosophus manuisses" fits only too well. Nontheless i'd risk another uncommon statement: Correctly i had forecast in 2000, that ÖVP&FPÖ would hold 6-7 years. And also this time it has always been clear, that ÖVP&FPÖ wouldn't survive those 10 years intended officially, when the CoalitionTreaty was signed (although the coalition did surprisingly well until the video), and that Kurz had to rescue himself at some time before being entirely damaged by FPÖ. But that he did so already at the first storm after only 1.5 years was not only unimpressive, it's also a massive mistake. His options are now worse than those of Schüssel 2006: FPÖ is done as CoalitionPartner (plus will rule out coalitions with ÖVP and search revenge for the next eternity) and thus he will have to make lots of concessions to his left (SPÖ) or farleft (GREENS) JuniorPartner, as Merkel has to do. And this with a soonly decreasing economy and once again increasing numbers of ImMigrants (Italy). |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 22:04:18 GMT
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 22:06:16 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 29, 2019 22:34:41 GMT
In Vienna the OVP vote has actually decreased in most districts, whereas in Tyrol they have polled a majority of votes cast (i.e. 50%+) in many districts, most of all Lienz with 57.4%. Very impressive scores across Tyrol. My favourite spot in Austria, Seefeld in Tirol, gave the OeVP 55%. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 29, 2019 22:36:55 GMT
So, did the vote of no confidence pay off for the opposition overall? Clearly it did for the Greens, but not for the SPO. But Kutz looks now to be the most powerful PM in recent history in Austria, perhaps he is now the Merkel of Austria? Suspect the opposition could have done with him getting tarnished by the FPO for a few more years?... I would be inclined to agree. And I suspect NEOS and the Greens will jump in to bed with him, only to find themselves trampled at the next election. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 1:40:39 GMT
So, did the vote of no confidence pay off for the opposition overall? Clearly it did for the Greens, but not for the SPO. But Kutz looks now to be the most powerful PM in recent history in Austria, perhaps he is now the Merkel of Austria? Suspect the opposition could have done with him getting tarnished by the FPO for a few more years?... I would be inclined to agree. And I suspect NEOS and the Greens will jump in to bed with him, only to find themselves trampled at the next election. But it was Kurz, who announced EarlyElections on that SaturDay AfterNoon on May 19th. And the deelection of his rest-cabinet by SPÖ&FPÖ was a lose-lose-situation for the latter: Had he remained PM, he would have had the UnTouchable/UnBeatable-nimbus, the forum of UNO/EU-summits and SPÖ had been under permanent attack from the left, who have often hated Kurz more than FPÖ. As 2017 in Germany with Jamaica i am not sure, that the GREENS would inevitably collapse, let alone, that SPD/SPÖ will certainly recover: These could look soonly very out-dated. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 3:19:57 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 30, 2019 4:47:33 GMT
Thanks for all the info Georg. Much appreciated. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 30, 2019 10:39:20 GMT
Georg, what's that SPOe belt south of Klagenfurt? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 30, 2019 10:45:03 GMT
Looks like the ethnic Slovene belt to me
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 30, 2019 12:43:27 GMT
Looks like the ethnic Slovene belt to me I did wonder that, but I'm sure Georg said ages ago that there was no obvious voting pattern that differentiated the Slovenes. Interesting though. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 13:32:32 GMT
Georg, what's that SPOe belt south of Klagenfurt? That's clearly the (ex)Slovenes. Pilz did also well there. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 13:43:00 GMT
Looks like the ethnic Slovene belt to me I did wonder that, but I'm sure Georg said ages ago that there was no obvious voting pattern that differentiated the Slovenes. Interesting though. The (ex)Slovenes have voted differently: In the monarchy surprisingly many opted for the national&liberal farmers, but generally they were more catholic than the GermanSpeakers (far more priests!) and apart from their own parties they preferred in FederalElections the ChristianSocials. As not few were Tito-partisans, after 1945 they were manichaically split between ÖVP and KPÖ; as KPÖ and Christianity was disappearing SPÖ replaced more and more, while the EotnaLista/EL (UnityList) emerged in the late 1970ies and GREENS and LiF/NEOS have had agreements with them (Slovene candidates like exMEP Mlinat [NEOS, 2014-2019]), also in order to get into the LandTag. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 13:46:14 GMT
p.scr.: Fascinatingly SPÖ (and the left parties in general) have performed as well also in those areas, where Slovene isn't spoken any longer.
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 14:02:06 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 30, 2019 14:21:53 GMT
Apologies, fault of memory. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 14:50:56 GMT
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 14:57:05 GMT
Very different partly: SORA (see above) has ÖVP quasi tied with both sexes, FPÖ at 48% with BlueCollars ("Arbeiter") aso. |
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 30, 2019 15:00:04 GMT
Carinthia was the first state to complete the postal vote count:
electorate
437776 -2431
Sum% PS%¹ Postal% Cards%
ÖVP 34.9 (+8.1) 35.2 (+8.9) 33.3 (+2.9) -
SPÖ 26.2 (-3.1) 26.3 (-3.0) 25.6 (-4.3) -
FPÖ 19.8 (-12.0) 20.7 (-12.5) 14.9 (-7.4) -
GRÜNE 9.4 (+7.0) 8.5 (+6.5) 14.5 (+9.6) -
NEOS 6.8 (+2.5) 6.3 (+2.2) 9.1 (+3.3) -
others 2.9 (-2.4) 3 (-2.2) 2.7 (-4.1) -
valid# 261257 -35108 49225 +6539
Meanwhile the smallest Austrian municipality, Gramais im Lechtal in Tyrol, has made national news with 23 ÖVP and one lonly Greens votes. wahl19.bmi.gv.at/70812.html[1] Polling stations vote shares. |
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