Austrian federal election 2019

[Georg Ebner]

PrimeMinister Kurz announced EarlyElections.

In Austria elections have to be prepared for ~3 months, what means, that they will likely take place - as in 2017 - in the second half of September (when the people are back from their SummerHolidays) or in October.

Presently a victory of Kurz seems likely, but SnapElections can take a different turn (vide UK 2017). Especially as Kurz has stopped first the coalition with SPÖ, now with FPÖ, so the voters could blame finally mainly him. Also, if ÖVP&NEOS&GREENS would not get a majority, a furious FPÖ could support a SPÖ-minority for some time, as in 1970. (The SPÖ-"AntiFa" would whitewash this "dialectically"...)

[Antiochian]

May 18, 2019 19:14:10 GMT Georg Ebner said:

PrimeMinister Kurz announced EarlyElections.

In Austria elections have to be prepared for ~3 months, what means, that they will likely take place - as in 2017 - in the second half of September (when the people are back from their SummerHolidays) or in October.

Presently a victory of Kurz seems likely, but SnapElections can take a different turn (vide UK 2017). Especially as Kurz has stopped first the coalition with SPÖ, now with FPÖ, so the voters could blame finally mainly him. Also, if ÖVP&NEOS&GREENS would not get a majority, a furious FPÖ could support a SPÖ-minority for some time, as in 1970. (The SPÖ-"AntiFa" would whitewash this "dialectically"...)

Ah.. dialectic... a lost art...

[greenhert]

There appears to be no reason to call early elections in Austria.

[maxque]

May 18, 2019 20:39:34 GMT greenhert said:

There appears to be no reason to call early elections in Austria.

Coalition was broken after footage of the FPO leader promising government contracts to a fake Russian businessman in exchange of her buying one of the largest newspapers and laying off all the anti-FPO journalists.

[Georg Ebner]

First post-scandal poll (conducted by ResearchAffairs, who have had a small bias towards FPÖ; on Sa&Su&Mo morning, n=500):

38 ÖVP
26 SPÖ
18 FPÖ
09 NEOS
05 GREENS

So, if true, not unpleasant for FPÖ in the present circumstances.

83% support the retreat of Strache, 60% EarlyElections.

[Georg Ebner]

This WeekEnd 4 (!) OpinionPolls were published:

OGM-UniqueRes.-Res.Aff.-DemoxRes.

36-38-38-37.5 ÖVP
22-21-23-22.5 SPÖ
21-19-17-18.5 FPÖ
10-10-08-08.5 GREENS
08-10-10-10.5 NEOS

I go with OGM - not only, because they delivered in fall 2017 the poll with the lowest DeViations per party for many years (while my PreDiction beat most other companies i was clearly beaten by OGM [as i assumed more left voters to vote tactically for the GREENS]); but also, because i don't think, that FPÖ is below 20% presently, nor, that ÖVP is so strong (2017 and 2019-EP they ended on the lower limit of expectations).
Ironically it's not unlikely, that FPÖ will end ahead of SPÖ: Neither of them has a convincing leader competitive with Kurz and the coming election will probably turn into a referendum on Kurz (after nasty campaigns); but FPÖ will be able to appeal to radicals with Kickl and to moderates with Hofer. (A problem for FPÖ would emerge only, if Kurz defended ÖVP&FPÖ too strongly, but this would make afterwards coalitioning with SPÖ or GREENS&NEOS even harder for Kurz.)

[Georg Ebner]

OGM was also further questioning:

- Was the Ibiza-video harmless?: 72% NO.

- Do You agree to EarlyElections?: 71% YES (huge relief for Kurz).

- Which coalition do You prefer?: ÖVP&SPÖ still not more than 14%, ÖVP&FPÖ still not less than 25%, ÖVP&GREENS&NEOS 33%.

[Georg Ebner]

UniqueResearch conducted for the tabloid "Krone" an OpinionPoll (n=954):

"How did these politicians perform in the GovernmentCrisis?"

(rather) positive - (rather) negative = saldo

+76-17=+59 president v.d.Bellen (GREENS)
+53-38=+15 Kurz (ÖVP)
+42-27=+15 MeinlRasinger (NEOS)
+35-29=+06 Kogler (GREENS)
+34-52= -18 Hofer (FPÖ)
+20-61= -41 Pilz (NOW)
+19-65= -46 RendiWagner (SPÖ)

[Georg Ebner]

ResearchAffairs (n=1.000):

38 (+4) ÖVP
23 ( -2) SPÖ
17 ( -6) FPÖ
09 (+4) GREENS
09 (+1) NEOS
01 ( -1) NOW (Pilz)

Chancellor:

46 (+5) Kurz (ÖVP)
19 ( -7) RendiWagner (SPÖ)
19 (*19) Hofer (FPÖ)

Do You want Kurz to become PM once again?:
59% YES, 41% NO

Preferred coalition:
26% ÖVP&NEOS and/or GREENS
21% ÖVP&FPÖ
19% SPÖ&GREENS&NEOS
08% ÖVP&SPÖ
06% SPÖ&FPÖ

Painful numbers for Mrs.RendiWagner. So far she was perceived as incapable (or at least inexperienced), but sympathic; the ousting of Kurz together with the FPÖ lost her many SymPathies.

[Georg Ebner]

Wild speculations, that RendiWagner could be replaced, for example by Zeiler, who was/is living in London. SPÖ can be brutally, when they see no success, but this time it should be really too late for any change.

[Georg Ebner]

The results of the EP-election have shown, that GREENies, who voted for SPÖ in 2017 in order to punish the GREENS or to strengthen Kern/SPÖ against Kurz/ÖVP&FPÖ, were flowing back to GREENS. As a result SPÖ-Vienna - led by a representative of the right wing - seems to have decided (reported by the semi-tabloid "Kurier", denied by a manager of SPÖ-Vienna in a suspiciously harsh way) against a FPÖ-friendly Doskozil-course and for campaigning heavily with Mrs.RendiWagner and GREENS-friendly issues.

[Georg Ebner]

3 PhotoGraphies explaining, why SPÖ has problems:

Mrs.RendiWagner holding the MicroPhone with both hands:

PartyManager Drozda ("Mr. 50.000-Euro-watch") missing his car:

Drozda together with FPÖ's Kickl in intrigues against Kurz:

[Georg Ebner]

UniqueResearch (n=800; 500 InterNet, 300 TelePhon):

"Was the NoConfidence-vote against Kurz justified?":


Kurz-era (July 2017 - June 2019):

[Devil Wincarnate]

So, Kurz again!

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 7, 2019 13:41:48 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

So, Kurz again!

Very likely - Kurz is still by far the most popular politician. Yet, winning the election will be easier for him than finding a willing CoalitionPartner (cf. Schüssel 2002).
Dangers for him are, that the campaigns will last 4 - painful - months and people might give him the fault for EarlyElections; SPÖ&FPÖ might spend so much money for popular goodies, that ÖVP could be forced to oppose it (or ÖVP would have to defend in the parliament private donations, which are unpopular); it might be revealed, that not SPÖ-, but ÖVP-CivilServants of the Police-SecretService BVT participated in making that video in Ibiza.

[Georg Ebner]

While the GREENS are obviously hoping for a hot&long summer, FPÖ might be encouraged by increasing numbers of immigrants (especially via Bosnia). But those 10.000s are probably not enough for causing another electoral storm as the 1.000.000s in 2015.
By law ÖVP&FPÖ have achieved quasi nothing, only the CivilServants have rejected more applications for asylum (often without successful deportations and instead with statistics faked by the people of FPÖ's HomeMinister Kickl).

[Georg Ebner]

A poll by PeterHajek came out:

38/37 ÖVP/Kurz
20/13 SPÖ/RendiWagner
20/13 FPÖ/Hofer
11/06 GREENS/Kogler
09/05 NEOS/MeinlRasinger
01/02 NOW!/Pilz

Nothing unusual. More interesting is the preferred coalition:

23 ÖVP&GREENS&NEOS (35 of ÖVP-voters, 58 of GREENS-/NEOS-)
21 ÖVP&FPÖ (28 of ÖVP-voters, 69 of FPÖ-)
14 ÖVP&SPÖ (12 of ÖVP-voters, 38 of SPÖ-)
06 SPÖ&FPÖ
21 none (35 of SPÖ-voters)

Surprisingly high number for "Dirndl" (Black&Green&Pink) among GREENS-followers. The public position of Kogler is roughly: "No coalition, unless the Kurz-ÖVP will change a lot." If THE GREENS will come close to SPÖ (i.e. will gain lots of lefties from them), the leadership might prefer to stay in opposition in order to become 2024 the leader of the left (as in Germany).

[Georg Ebner]

PeterHajek-PublicOpinionStrategies/POS (n=800) asked also for the 2 most important issues:

Helping GREENS a lot:
31 climate

...something for FPÖ (and the Kurz-ÖVP so far):
24 immigration

...hope for SPÖ:
19 housing
18 pensions
16 ElderlyCare
16 HealthSystem

11 corruption
10 security

09 education

07 jobs
04 economy

35 other topics

So very different to 2017, when immigration topped everything and environment was far behind (what let the GREENS focus more on other issues, with negative OutCome).

[Georg Ebner]

2 OpinionPolls:

Most important issues (Climate, Immigration&integration, housing, Health, pensions, ElderlyCare, corruption, security, education, jobs, economy)


Trust (saldo positive minus negative):

[Devil Wincarnate]

I've never heard of some of those people, but some sound like they are made-up Austrians from a book, or members of the parliament of Ruritania.