Austrian federal election 2019

[Toylyyev]

Aug 19, 2019 23:45:58 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 19, 2019 21:05:06 GMT Toylyyev said:

Election survey: wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/wahlkabine/1

1. WANDL 134
2. GRÜNE 126
3. JETZT 124

Google translate can't handle the URL on my machine, but their text form can be used to paste the questions.


Edit: "... not necessarily in the right order..."    I am pretty certain to have seen "Grüner Wandel Jetzt" posters somewhere sometime ago, but can't find back any of them in the ether.

 

Thank You for introducing this site here! (I didn't do it myself, because i considered offering You a version available only in german as being too inpolite.)
By the way: EnnserJedenastik (univ.Vienna) has analized those 26 questions of .wahlkabine.at and found a CorRelation of 81% between ÖVP and FPÖ (2017 only 65%), ÖVP and SPÖ are 46%, ÖVP and NEOS 31%, ÖVP and GREENS 19%. We have to keep in mind, of course, that 26 is no numerous number; that it's unweighted by importance, by full/partial agreement aso.

I have spent a few months in Scotland¹.   Actually got half Cambridge dialect and and half one centered on 'Loch Ness'² on the linguistic location survey discussed earlier here at first. 

[1] Kidding, i have found them to be quite friendly and open people in real life so far.
[2] No kidding.

[Georg Ebner]

The institute "Market" asked 800 people, whether the election is decided. 49% (especially women) said NO, 43% YES. In 2017 75% said NO 40 days before.
Problematic for ÖVP is, that 93% of its voters agree, but "only" 59% of SPÖ's (1/4 of SPÖ and FPÖ each disagree), what means, that many Kurz-supporters could stay at home or could choose themselves their preferred CoalitionPartner (ÖVP-conservatives fearing ÖVP-GREENS FPÖ; Left"Christians" voting for the GREENS out of DisLike for ÖVP&FPÖ).

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 20, 2019 0:00:36 GMT Toylyyev said:

Aug 19, 2019 23:45:58 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Thank You for introducing this site here! (I didn't do it myself, because i considered offering You a version available only in german as being too inpolite.)
By the way: EnnserJedenastik (univ.Vienna) has analized those 26 questions of .wahlkabine.at and found a CorRelation of 81% between ÖVP and FPÖ (2017 only 65%), ÖVP and SPÖ are 46%, ÖVP and NEOS 31%, ÖVP and GREENS 19%. We have to keep in mind, of course, that 26 is no numerous number; that it's unweighted by importance, by full/partial agreement aso.

I have spent a few months in Scotland¹.   Actually got half Cambridge dialect and and half one centered on 'Loch Ness'² on the linguistic location survey discussed earlier here at first. 

[1] Kidding, i have found them to be quite friendly and open people in real life so far.
[2] No kidding.

Already Your comments on Luxembourg aso. gave me more and more the impression, that You understand/speak german?
Ad "Cambridge dialect": As a pupil i tried to improve my English in Cambridge and when i came back my English-teacher, who knew England quite well, i think, claimed astonished, that i'd suddenly have an Oxfordian accent...
Unfortunately i have googled, but haven't found a poster "Grüner Wandel jetzt"; nontheless it's indeed not unlikely, that the GREENS used this slogan at some time.

[Toylyyev]

Aug 20, 2019 0:21:42 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 20, 2019 0:00:36 GMT Toylyyev said:

I have spent a few months in Scotland¹.   Actually got half Cambridge dialect and and half one centered on 'Loch Ness'² on the linguistic location survey discussed earlier here at first. 

[1] Kidding, i have found them to be quite friendly and open people in real life so far.
[2] No kidding.

Already Your comments on Luxembourg aso. gave me more and more the impression, that You understand/speak german?
Ad "Cambridge dialect": As a pupil i tried to improve my English in Cambridge and when i came back my English-teacher, who knew England quite well, i think, claimed astonished, that i'd suddenly have an Oxfordian accent...
Unfortunately i have googled, but haven't found a poster "Grüner Wandel jetzt"; nontheless it's indeed not unlikely, that the GREENS used this slogan at some time.

I can't locate it precisely and am not fully certain either, but it should have been around the 2009 or the 2013 German GE. It is one of those things that one remembers because of having felt them to be slightly odd, but i suppose they succeeded with putting out a slogan that sticks.

On the language side i quite regularly find Scots words i can put a meaning on without looking at it from an English language angle, even sometimes when they are spoken, while i can't understand a full sentence in Yorkshire dialect. And in a similar vein i am able to make sense of most of the words in Limburgish wikipedia articles, while finding it much harder to do so in Flemish, even as both are classified as Low Franconian languages.

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 19, 2019 23:45:58 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 19, 2019 21:05:06 GMT Toylyyev said:

Election survey: wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/wahlkabine/1

1. WANDL 134
2. GRÜNE 126
3. JETZT 124

Google translate can't handle the URL on my machine, but their text form can be used to paste the questions.


Edit: "... not necessarily in the right order..."    I am pretty certain to have seen "Grüner Wandel Jetzt" posters somewhere sometime ago, but can't find back any of them in the ether.

 

Thank You for introducing this site here! (I didn't do it myself, because i considered offering You a version available only in german as being too inpolite.)
By the way: EnnserJedenastik (univ.Vienna) has analized those 26 questions of .wahlkabine.at and found a CorRelation of 81% between ÖVP and FPÖ (2017 only 65%), ÖVP and SPÖ are 46%, ÖVP and NEOS 31%, ÖVP and GREENS 19%. We have to keep in mind, of course, that 26 is no numerous number; that it's unweighted by importance, by full/partial agreement aso.

Here is a table of EnnserJedenastik:


Market polled, how voters place on a left-right-axis themselves (1st column), their preferred party (2nd), other parties (3rd):
 

[Georg Ebner]

OpinionPoll by OGM:

[Georg Ebner]

The same by ResearchAffairs:


Positive mood (above):

Coalitions expected (above) and preferred (below):

[Georg Ebner]

The deCrease of "[very] good mood" for ÖVP has been caused by small affairs mentioned earlier. While the justice - presently led by a SPÖ-Minister - does basically close to nothing to get the whole Ibiza-Video and punish its makers, they have begun investigations against FPÖ and ÖVP because of … handing manager-positions to PartyFriends! Even the naivest parts of the public reacted with high amusement...

Here is an OverView, how these jobs have been distributed since 1995 (many "indep." are close to a party):

[Georg Ebner]

The hot phase of campaigning has begun 5 weeks, 35 days before.

ÖVP's strategy seems to keep calm, while people were on vacations, but to introduce few concrete ideas every week from now on.

SPÖ has stopped Kurz-bashing and has focussed on its central competences (affecting mostly the cities): Rents, social&health system, minimal wages of 1.700€, pensions; but also climate change (obviously hoping to get enough voters back from the GREENS for defending the second place). F.Sommer, who makes internal OpinionPolls for ÖVP, was certainly right in May or June, that the Soc.dem.s would have the potential to defend 25-27%. But to achieve that, i'd say, they'd need a formidable leader, what Mrs.RendiWagner is not (lots of SPÖ-veterans fear a debacle of her in the TeleVision-debates).

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 26, 2019 12:38:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

 But to achieve that, i'd say, they'd need a formidable leader, what Mrs.RendiWagner is not (lots of SPÖ-veterans fear a debacle of her in the TeleVision-debates).

Kreisky, Sinowatz, Vranitsky, even Faymann...and now P R-W is Was bleibt.  How times change.

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 26, 2019 16:11:01 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 26, 2019 12:38:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

 But to achieve that, i'd say, they'd need a formidable leader, what Mrs.RendiWagner is not (lots of SPÖ-veterans fear a debacle of her in the TeleVision-debates).

Kreisky, Sinowatz, Vranitsky, even Faymann...and now P R-W is Was bleibt.  How times change.

Indeed.
Few years ago Austria seemed to trend towards SPÖ versus FPÖ, with the ÖVP being squeezed between both blogs and passed by GREENS and even NEOS.
(Too?) smart SPÖ-supporters are hoping for a rather bad result, because with a rather succeeding RendiWagner (25-27%) they fear a GroKo, in which SPÖ will be "SPDed" and replaced by the GREENS. Too bad (below 20%) could make them headless, though.

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 26, 2019 12:38:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

(lots of SPÖ-veterans fear a debacle of her in the TeleVision-debates).

YesterDay RendiWagner was interviewed by the PublicBroadcaster ORF and had her best public appearance in those (few) videos i have watched so far. This was - apart from the extent - expectable, she clearly dislikes speeches in front of large audiences, hard discussions aso.. Critical for her will be the debates with the other PartyLeaders.
And as a problem for SPÖ remains, that the others have their central campaign-message: ÖVP Chancellor Kurz, FPÖ CoalitionContinuation, GREENS ClimateChange:, while RendiWagner cannot play convincingly the tough ClassCombatant.

[Georg Ebner]

Kickl heard in the company printing also Kurz-Posters, that his ArchEnemy had copied J.Haider, for whom Kickl had been a GhostWriter, and copied him, too.

[Georg Ebner]

RendiWagner's Social<in>Competence is just a catastrophy for SPÖ.

[Georg Ebner]

[Toylyyev]

Sept 2, 2019 14:37:59 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Kickl heard in the company printing also Kurz-Posters, that his ArchEnemy had copied J.Haider, for whom Kickl had been a GhostWriter, and copied him, too.

Goar net ignorieren.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Of course when Haider/Falco said "unsere Sprache", he also meant "piss off, Slovenes of Carinthia".

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 2, 2019 23:59:34 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Of course when Haider/Falco said "unsere Sprache", he also meant "piss off, Slovenes of Carinthia".

Haider used this exactly 20 years ago for the federal campaign 1999, though. (But i cannot rule out the possibility, that this poster was also already used for the regional one of Carinthia happening few months earlier.)

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 3, 2019 14:42:56 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 2, 2019 23:59:34 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Of course when Haider/Falco said "unsere Sprache", he also meant "piss off, Slovenes of Carinthia".

Haider used this exactly 20 years ago for the federal campaign 1999, though. (But i cannot rule out the possibility, that this poster was also already used for the regional one of Carinthia happening few months earlier.)

It is fair to say though that "unsere Sprache", when uttered by Haider, had a very loaded history.

This does remind me that I once turned on an ORF channel in a hotel in Seefeld in Tirol, and wondered why I couldn't understand the people speaking. It turned out it was a Burgenland Croat programme!

[Foggy]

Sept 3, 2019 15:02:20 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Sept 3, 2019 14:42:56 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Haider used this exactly 20 years ago for the federal campaign 1999, though. (But i cannot rule out the possibility, that this poster was also already used for the regional one of Carinthia happening few months earlier.)

It is fair to say though that "unsere Sprache", when uttered by Haider, had a very loaded history.

This does remind me that I once turned on an ORF channel in a hotel in Seefeld in Tirol, and wondered why I couldn't understand the people speaking. It turned out it was a Burgenland Croat programme!

I was once in a Gasthof in the (North) Tyrol and saw a news report in Ladin... but it was from a RAI channel.

From Klagenfurt I could receive broadcasts from ÖRF intended for Slovene speakers, but I don't think I've ever encountered Austrian programming in Croatian before.