Austrian federal election 2019

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 26, 2019 16:11:01 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 26, 2019 12:38:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

 But to achieve that, i'd say, they'd need a formidable leader, what Mrs.RendiWagner is not (lots of SPÖ-veterans fear a debacle of her in the TeleVision-debates).

Kreisky, Sinowatz, Vranitsky, even Faymann...and now P R-W is Was bleibt.  How times change.

In the recent post of the - timeless - thread "Austrian federal election" the great VoteStreamAnalyses since 1919 of the institute SORA are noted.
If we trust their numbers and add the transfers since 1986 - Waldheim/Haider and the GREENS were a TurningPoint; before, only small shifts had been the case - SPÖ has summa summarum lost 951.000 votes, what is certain, because we know it from the results (1983: 2.313.000, 2017: 1.362.000). According to SORA SPÖ suffered 3.183.000 (re)departures (some naturally leaving, coming back, going once again aso.) and 2.235.000 (re)gains.
Guess, to which party SPÖ lost most!:
It's by far...
FPÖ: 1.203.000 (re)lost, 415.000 (re)gained, net-loss 788.000
ÖVP: -436.000 +546.000 = +110.000 (re)gained
GREENS: totally +62.000 (because of 161.000 voting tactically in 2017)
NonVoters: all in all -165.000 since 1986

If anyone is interested, i can post all the numbers in tables.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 3, 2019 17:46:16 GMT Foggy said:

Sept 3, 2019 15:02:20 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

It is fair to say though that "unsere Sprache", when uttered by Haider, had a very loaded history.

This does remind me that I once turned on an ORF channel in a hotel in Seefeld in Tirol, and wondered why I couldn't understand the people speaking. It turned out it was a Burgenland Croat programme!

I was once in a Gasthof in the (North) Tyrol and saw a news report in Ladin... but it was from a RAI channel.

From Klagenfurt I could receive broadcasts from ÖRF intended for Slovene speakers, but I don't think I've ever encountered Austrian programming in Croatian before.

It threw me too, as I was expecting Slovene but it was clearly not in Carinthia. Burgenland suddenly made sense. I believe that there is Magyar programming on ORF for Burgenland too.

[Georg Ebner]

After data were published showing, that ÖVP has hidden CampaigningCosts in order to remain in legality (not more than 7m € are allowed by law), ÖVP claims to have been hacked for months by professionals (what would have cost at least 100.000€, making the InVolvement of a foreign SecretService not unlikely). According to them data have been copied and manipulated.

[Georg Ebner]

If any nonGermanSpeaker has any question on these graphs, i can try to translate them.

[Georg Ebner]

While in 2017 FPÖ and ÖVP performed better among men (ÖVP 33:30 [source: SORA]), this has changed according to recent polls. In the EP-election ÖVP was already 32:36 [SORA] and P.Hajek polled this:

[Georg Ebner]

FPÖ came out with this video:



FPÖ's Hofer and Mr.K. at a CoupleTherapist…

Obviously the reason for FPÖ humiliating itself is the same, what lets Kurz stress permanently, how successfully the coalition has worked: the fight for those between FPÖ and ÖVP.

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 19, 2019 23:45:58 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 19, 2019 21:05:06 GMT Toylyyev said:

Election survey: wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/wahlkabine/1

1. WANDL 134
2. GRÜNE 126
3. JETZT 124

Google translate can't handle the URL on my machine, but their text form can be used to paste the questions.


Edit: "... not necessarily in the right order..."    I am pretty certain to have seen "Grüner Wandel Jetzt" posters somewhere sometime ago, but can't find back any of them in the ether.

 

Thank You for introducing this site here! (I didn't do it myself, because i considered offering You a version available only in german as being too inpolite.)

Here is an alternative - in English!:
voteswiper.org/en/austria/2019-austrian-legislative-election

[Toylyyev]

1. Die Grünen 47.5%
2. Neos 42.5%
3. JETZT Liste Pilz - SPÖ - Wandel 37.5% 


Edit: This survey did reduce the error points to what would be my actual full STV ranking to 15 from 20 for the German only one. And the site also has surveys for all the German non-communal elections starting with the 2017 GE, but none for the upcoming Thuringia ballot yet.

www.voteswiper.org/en/germany

[gasman2019]

1. FPO - 82.35
2. OVP - 73.53
3. NEOS- 47.06

Would be tempted to vote FPO to keep the current coalition but I do like Kurz and would want him as PM.

[The Bishop]

Sept 8, 2019 9:01:12 GMT gasman2019 said:

1. FPO - 82.35
2. OVP - 73.53
3. NEOS- 47.06

Would be tempted to vote FPO to keep the current coalition but I do like Kurz and would want him as PM.

Erm.....

[gasman2019]

Sept 8, 2019 9:05:25 GMT The Bishop said:

Sept 8, 2019 9:01:12 GMT gasman2019 said:

1. FPO - 82.35
2. OVP - 73.53
3. NEOS- 47.06

Would be tempted to vote FPO to keep the current coalition but I do like Kurz and would want him as PM.

Erm.....

well the last administration before the early elections.
Have OVP and FPO agreed to work together after? Or is that relationship destroyed?

[iain]

67.57 for both Neos and Greens

[Devil Wincarnate]

My highest was, possibly unsurprisingly, the OeVP on 57%.  And then FPOe and NEOS on 49% both.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 8, 2019 9:09:36 GMT gasman2019 said:

Have OVP and FPO agreed to work together after? Or is that relationship destroyed?

No, ÖVP demands to receive - as always - a blank cheque of its supporters. (A promised coalition with FPÖ would cost ÖVP votes on the left wing, the same naturally on the other side). Whom Kurz will choose is hard to predict, because all 3 options are awful for him: An instable FPÖ, in which moderate Hofer would be soonly replaced by Kickl (or even Strache, what is popular among the FPÖ-base, but deeply inpopular among ÖVP-voters); an enerving permanent-fight with SPÖ, who are basically the opposite of ÖVP (the poor&deprived vs. the wealthy&healthy); GREENS&NEOS, who are leftextreme (at least concerning immigration and "UnitedStates of Europe").

[jamie]

FPÖ - 60%
ÖVP - 58%
Die Grünen - 44%
SPÖ - 35%
Neos - 33%

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 5, 2019 16:01:56 GMT Georg Ebner said:

After data were published showing, that ÖVP has hidden CampaigningCosts in order to remain in legality (not more than 7m € are allowed by law), ÖVP claims to have been hacked for months by professionals (what would have cost at least 100.000€, making the InVolvement of a foreign SecretService not unlikely). According to them data have been copied and manipulated.

"Falter", a left weekly in Vienna, published more data, presenting - despite the tremendous PublicFinancing - huge debts of ÖVP (21.5m € when Kurz began - quite exactly, what i had guessed here some months ago), what will not interest the people; and bills with 10.000s of € monthly for friends and PR-managers of Kurz, what will interest the people.

[Georg Ebner]

Recent OpinionPolls (only with at least 800 participants):

ÖVP-SPÖ-FPÖ-GREENS-NEOS-NOW

33-22-20-13-08-1.5 UniqueResearch (n=2.400)
35-22-20-11-08-02 OGM (n=2.167)
35-22-19-11-09-01 ResearchAffairs (n=1.000)
35-22-19-12-09-02 Karmasin (n=3.000)
34-22-21-11-09-02 Market (n=800)

Quasi no change for four months, but a clear lead of Kurz from spring to fall was happening also in 2017; suspiciously similar - hopefully not caused by herding, but by campaigns without really hot issues (2017 it was MassImmigration and salvation from the "eternal" infightings of SPÖVP).

[Georg Ebner]

Crucial, i think, will be those, who have been between FPÖ, ÖVP (or rather: Kurz), BZÖ, Stronach and AbStention.
Since FPÖ's demolition to a certain extent by the IbizaVideo the voles have clearly tried to demoralize this group into AbStention by attacking especially ÖVP (donations and other [pseudo]scandals), hoping, that MidLeft (SPÖ&GREENS&NEOS) will get its first majority since 1979 (under Kreisky) - still very unlikely, yet not impossible any longer.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 5, 2019 16:01:56 GMT Georg Ebner said:

After data were published showing, that ÖVP has hidden CampaigningCosts in order to remain in legality (not more than 7m € are allowed by law), ÖVP claims to have been hacked for months by professionals (what would have cost at least 100.000€, making the InVolvement of a foreign SecretService not unlikely). According to them data have been copied and manipulated.

Via France austrian polit-circles seem to be behind this hacking according to security forces and ÖVP-sources.
If they are found out before the election, this could lead to far stronger shifts than polled so far.

[Georg Ebner]

Attacking as an act of desperation Kurz personally, Mrs.RendiWagner tried to establish a real Chancellor-choice - what we have always had since 1945 - in the last duel (next week will be a big round of all). Won't make ÖVP&SPÖ easier (but it's not unlikely, that RendiWagner will have to step down in 10 days).
NEOS' once pregnant Mrs.MeinlRasinger did something similar ("Austria shouldn't be ruled by childless politicians" [like Kurz]) and the GREENS' Kogler, who with his rude eaststyrian dialect is quite a proletarian figure, called Kurz a "Schnösel" (=prig).

So it will be both - policies and style -, what will speak for ÖVP&FPÖ. Stability speaks against it.