Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 20, 2019 14:06:17 GMT
Attacking as an act of desperation Kurz personally, Mrs.RendiWagner tried to establish a real Chancellor-choice - what we have always had since 1945 - in the last duel (next week will be a big round of all). Won't make ÖVP&SPÖ easier (but it's not unlikely, that RendiWagner will have to step down in 10 days). NEOS' once pregnant Mrs.MeinlRasinger did something similar ("Austria shouldn't be ruled by childless politicians" [like Kurz]) and the GREENS' Kogler, who with his rude eaststyrian dialect is quite a proletarian figure, called Kurz a "Schnösel" (=prig). So it will be both - policies and style -, what will speak for ÖVP&FPÖ. Stability speaks against it. Amusingly THE GREENS' Kogler would be an excellent SPÖ-TU-prole fighting convincingly for "social justice" (and winning back not few BlueCollars from FPÖ), while SPÖ's RendiWagner is a classical naive academic younger woman not taken serious by 70-80% - fitting perfectly to the GREENS. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 21, 2019 14:32:48 GMT
In the last few days my suspicion has been: For four months campaigning without big issues (MassImmigration was ignored by the left media; ClimateChange was issued permanently, but most people and thus politicians like foggy formulations and dislike concrete sacrifices) and no major movements have been detected in OpinionPolls: Recent OpinionPolls (only with at least 800 participants): ÖVP-SPÖ-FPÖ-GREENS-NEOS-NOW 33-22-20-13-08-1.5 UniqueResearch (n=2.400) 35-22-20-11-08-02 OGM (n=2.167) 35-22-19-11-09-01 ResearchAffairs (n=1.000) 35-22-19-12-09-02 Karmasin (n=3.000) 34-22-21-11-09-02 Market (n=800) Quasi no change for four months, but a clear lead of Kurz from spring to fall was happening also in 2017; suspiciously similar - hopefully not caused by herding, but by campaigns without really hot issues (2017 it was MassImmigration and salvation from the "eternal" infightings of SPÖVP). ...in short: Surprise(s) in 8 days is/are more probable than unprobable... A first - surely small - hint could be an unweighted OpinionPoll published by IGF, a rare & rather unknown pollster from Salzburg (n=710): 32 ÖVP 26 FPÖ 19 SPÖ 11 GREENS 08 NEOS 3.4 Pilz So basically no change from 2017: The 2 parties on the right would stagnate, the GREENS would win back those LoanVotes, who moved 2017 to SPÖ in order to save Kern his first place (strange&stupid tactics, by the way, as it cost the GREENS all their seats and wouldn't have saved Kern; ruinating my otherwise perfect ForeCast for 2017). Some lefties would go to NEOS, Pilz would be surprisingly close to the 4%-threshold (due to his participation in the TeleVision-debates?). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 25, 2019 2:59:08 GMT
One of Strache's exBodyGuards, who played already a role for organizing the Ibiza-video, came out with bills aso., showing, that the FPÖ, "the party of the small people", paid perhaps ~42.000€ monthly to the Straches. If Strache cannot prove, that the party agreed on those expenditures, he'll have legal difficlties.
The media also report, that the FPÖ intends to expulse Strache next week, i.e. immediately after the election. Not unprobable, although being only unsubstantial gossip of left journalists in order to upset FPÖ-supporters and divide the party cannot be ruled out.
A FPÖ without the danger of Strache returning would be far more acceptable to Kurz, of course. But except Strache (and v.Gudenus) they have no well-known people in Vienna for the election in autumn 2020 (apart from Mrs.Stenzel, who is among the elderly). And at least in Vienna Strache could hurt a Hofer&Kickl-FPÖ with his own list a lot.
FPÖ's FactionLeader in LowerAustria's LandTag was expelled by Hofer few days ago (for celebrating once April 20th, the BirthDay of Adolf H.), what has already made bad blood within the party (as i had predicted).
Demonstrates, how risky it would be for Kurz to try another coalition with FPÖ (in economically unimproving times).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2019 5:13:24 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2019 5:22:34 GMT
FPÖ made another funny video, unfortunately i found no version with English SubTitles (this time Kurz is being absorbed by a GREENy Girl...):
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2019 5:36:30 GMT
Preferred coaltion (according to institute KARMASIN):  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 28, 2019 21:55:07 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 28, 2019 22:12:30 GMT
Tomorrow/today is the big day. Weather will be rather sunny, what is probably rather bad for TurnOut, as lots of people might go on a last trip this summer? PollingStations will close at 17.00 MET and ProJections by SORA for PublicBroadcaster ORF and ArgeWahlen for the small private channels will come out at ~17.10/15. Those will include the ~1.000.000 PostalVotes, which will be mostly counted on MonDay (few - ~30.000 - on ThursDay). Real results can be found at the HomeOffice: www.bmi.gv.at |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 28, 2019 22:26:48 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 28, 2019 22:27:21 GMT
Are there any questions?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 13:07:07 GMT
TurnOut seems to be as last time (80%), at least not much worse, perhaps even better.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 13:15:52 GMT
As written earlier the OpinionPolls looked suspiciously similar and after months filled with (pseudo)scandals and little substance, surprises are not unlikely to happen.
Contrary to all pundits i am quite sure, that the OpinionPollsters weren't able to handle the certainly exploding number of respondents refusing to admit, that they'll stay blue.
Yes, totally different to all other ObServers i expected the FPÖ to be at ~25% one week ago. With the newest revelations, which might hurt FPÖ more than the Ibiza-video, they could end today far below. While ÖVP - and especially SPÖ with their weak "leader" - were overpolled.
So my guess:
32.5% ÖVP
22.0% FPÖ
20.0% SPÖ
12.5% GREENS
06.5% NEOS
03.5% Pilz (played the antiKurz, what might help)
03.0% others (farleft KPÖ&Wandel; satirical BeerParty)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 13:51:40 GMT
Pre-ExitPoll of ResearchAffairs:
"Most important issue":
51% "Social Justice" (!, surprising)
44% ImMigration
43% Rents
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 29, 2019 14:16:31 GMT
Sky News seems to think that Kurz wants a coalition with the Greens.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 29, 2019 14:26:00 GMT
As written earlier the OpinionPolls looked suspiciously similar and after months filled with (pseudo)scandals and little substance, surprises are not unlikely to happen. Contrary to all pundits i am quite sure, that the OpinionPollsters weren't able to handle the certainly exploding number of respondents refusing to admit, that they'll stay blue. Yes, totally different to all other ObServers i expected the FPÖ to be at ~25% one week ago. With the newest revelations, which might hurt FPÖ more than the Ibiza-video, they could end today far below. While ÖVP - and especially SPÖ with their weak "leader" - were overpolled. So my guess: 32.5% ÖVP 22.0% FPÖ 20.0% SPÖ 12.5% GREENS 06.5% NEOS 03.5% Pilz (played the antiKurz, what might help) 03.0% others (farleft KPÖ&Wandel; satirical BeerParty) Pretty close to what i had... ÖVP 33%
FPÖ 21%
SPÖ 20%
GRÜNE 12%
NEOS 9%
JETZT 3%
Others 2%
Starting to feel the Greens might be higher... |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 14:41:01 GMT
Sky News seems to think that Kurz wants a coalition with the Greens. Pure speculation. The Austrian GREENS are clearly left of SPÖ. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 14:48:36 GMT
Rumours of a very bad result for FPÖ.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 15:04:19 GMT
OpinionPoll of ResearchAffairs:
37 ÖVP
23 SPÖ
17 FPÖ
12 GREENS
08 NEOS
02 Pilz
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2019 15:08:30 GMT
ProJection ATV:
37.1 ÖVP
22.5 SPÖ
16.7 FPÖ
13.0 GREENS
07.8 NEOS
01.8 NOW (Pilz)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 29, 2019 15:11:50 GMT
ProJection ATV: 37.1 ÖVP 22.5 SPÖ 16.7 FPÖ 13.0 GREENS 07.8 NEOS 01.8 NOW (Pilz) If true, the best performance by any party since 2002. |
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