Austrian federal election 2019

[Deleted]

Jul 6, 2019 10:42:36 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jul 5, 2019 19:49:36 GMT @goodoldcause2 said:

We spent Monday in Graz. My command of German is limited, but the local people seemed to be speaking essentially standard German, but with a much stronger sing-song accent than Vienna.

Though EastStyria - which can be recommended with its lovely small baroque towns in hilly landscape - is infamous for its dialect (reminding me of UpperPalatine): "Hey, EastStyrian - here's a dog!" "Wou, wou, wou?"

We didn't venture into the countryside!

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 5, 2019 19:05:25 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jul 5, 2019 8:01:13 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I have been told that the German we learn at school in terms of spoken language is Hanover-Mundart.

Yes, this is generally taught and should be correct. (Although that region hasn't breed out many great Dichter&Denker [poets&thinkers].)

Good point.  Hannah Arendt was born there but not educated there, and was very much a daughter of Koenigsberg; Leibniz ended up there but was definitely a Saxon.  A quick check reminds me that there are still some reasonable well-known figures from that part of the world:  Wilhelm Busch jumps out.  Modern Lower Saxony, and its predecessors, don't seem to have produced much either, and many of them did not stand the test of time: August Lafontaine, and Remarque was from Osnabrueck.

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 6, 2019 12:24:14 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jul 5, 2019 19:05:25 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Yes, this is generally taught and should be correct. (Although that region hasn't breed out many great Dichter&Denker [poets&thinkers].)

Good point.  Hannah Arendt was born there but not educated there, and was very much a daughter of Koenigsberg; Leibniz ended up there but was definitely a Saxon.  A quick check reminds me that there are still some reasonable well-known figures from that part of the world:  Wilhelm Busch jumps out.  Modern Lower Saxony, and its predecessors, don't seem to have produced much either, and many of them did not stand the test of time: August Lafontaine, and Remarque was from Osnabrueck.

Apropos Osnabrück: 1 genius has to be mentioned: Germany's BURKE - Justus MÖSER !

[Georg Ebner]

A widely ignored development inside SPÖ has been, that - after Kern stopped Doskozil from the right wing to take over the party and enabled it for Mrs.RendiWagner - the right wing (Doskozil, Vienna's mayor Ludwig, Tyrol's Dornauer and certain TradeUnionists) obviously wanted to relax in the comfort-zone and let RendiWagner fail in the next election against Kurz.
Yet, she made her CampaignManager Mr.Deutsch, once PartyManager of SPÖ-Vienna, who was initially on the left wing (if i remember correctly), but after being replaced by Vienna-exMayor Häupl he moved totally to the Faymann/Ludwig-people (he basically forced Häupl to step down and was crucial for the victory of Ludwig).
Surely not unrelated to the new role of Deutsch is, that Doskozil/Ludwig have suddenly begun to defend RendiWagner, while Kern announced sarcastically, that his hand-picked successor "won't win this highly".

[Georg Ebner]

The mentioned Deutsch made it clear, that SPÖ won't continue with concentrating on Kurz-bashing, but will focus instead on SPÖ's strengths (rents, socials and health).
A right decision, i am sure.

[Georg Ebner]

OpinionPoll by "ResearchAffairs" (including climate: PartyCompetence, personal activity):

[Georg Ebner]

(Un)decided? Will You go voting? Is FPÖ able to govern?:

[Georg Ebner]

ResearchAffairs (n=1.000 onLine):

Right: "Do You support a ÖVP-MinorityGovernment?":

Positive/negative appearance in ElectionCampaign:

Preferred chancellor:

Left: "Shall Kickl become Minister once again?"; right: "Is FPÖ capable to govern?":

8 of 9 regions (less Vorarlberg):

[Georg Ebner]

Formerly it was SPÖ, which had a huge amount of old voters. Kurz with his humility and excellent manners has gained much support (especially from the female elderly).

[Foggy]

The figures that really stand out there are the FPÖ being very low among the youngest voters, and NEOS virtually non-existent for 50- to 59-year-olds. It's also astonishing to see from the previous post that the ÖVP is ahead even in Burgenland (federally, at least)!

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 26, 2019 18:36:34 GMT Foggy said:

The figures that really stand out there are the FPÖ being very low among the youngest voters, and NEOS virtually non-existent for 50- to 59-year-olds. It's also astonishing to see from the previous post that the ÖVP is ahead even in Burgenland (federally, at least)!

FPÖ's Hofer might indeed be too calm for attracting the youth like Strache (who had also received decreasing youth-support the older he became); yet, in the EP-election no AgeGap of FPÖ was detected (although unfortunately SORA put all below 30 together). This OpinionPoll relied on 1.000 being asked (rather than 1.000 responding), 16-19 are only 3 years, NEOS are a very small sample: This could explain these strange numbers.

In the EP-election ÖVP got in Burgenland (and nearly in Carinthia!) the relative majority for the first time since 1966, what evoked some media-attention You might refer to; but realiter ÖVP remained at ~1% above NationalAverage, what has been normal there and in this poll the Kurz-party is even far below! Remarkably good for ÖVP is rather Vienna, where it had usually been ~10% below Austria as a whole and ended at -13.?% in May (the third-worst result since 1945).

[Georg Ebner]

p.scr.: The studies of SORA plus other companies for the EP-election and a historical OverView of the DeViations in the 9 regions can be found on p.10 of "Austrian nonFederal elections".

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 26, 2019 18:36:34 GMT Foggy said:

The figures that really stand out there are the FPÖ being very low among the youngest voters, and NEOS virtually non-existent for 50- to 59-year-olds. It's also astonishing to see from the previous post that the ÖVP is ahead even in Burgenland (federally, at least)!

The OeVP score in Vienna is quite something too.

[Toylyyev]

The list of parties that have collected enough signatures to stand from the equivalent election thread on uselectionatlas.org.

#msg6908942

As the search engine only has the forum rules left in quote form i'll risk a cheer for the election clip of the Beer Party...



Edit: They would need around 23% of the vote in Vienna to reach the country-wide four percent threshold, but can also gain seats by obtaining Grundmandate (basic mandates) in the Vienna regional districts. The lowest required vote shares in the 2017 poll were 13.7% in Vienna North, 14.7% in SW, 15% in South, and 18% in NW.

[Georg Ebner]

SPÖ has spent a lot for SocialMedia, e.g. expenditures for FaceBook since March:

Klicks on Facebook&Twitter&Instagram in July:

[Toylyyev]

The polling figures from this side of the EP election always seemed to have a whiff of uncanny familiarity about them, and now i know why.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Luxembourg_general_election#Results
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Luxembourg_general_election#Results
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Luxembourg_general_election#Results

Give or a take a couple percent here or there, and an interesting position swap between 'liberals' and 'libertarians/populists'.

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 12, 2019 13:25:30 GMT Toylyyev said:

The polling figures from this side of the EP election always seemed to have a whiff of uncanny familiarity about them, and now i know why.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Luxembourg_general_election#Results
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Luxembourg_general_election#Results
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Luxembourg_general_election#Results

Give or a take a couple percent here or there, and an interesting position swap between 'liberals' and 'libertarians/populists'.

Amusing, yes!
In the PostWar-era the PartySystems of Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg were clearly closest to Austria: 2 big parties and FDP/FPÖ (well, the last group not quite the same...). The former "Austrian Netherlands" had also those 2+1 very distinct camps (the Dutch pillars were more different, of course).
Yet, nowadays i'd say, that SwitzerLand is - with less theatre and more seriousness - the best comparison: 25-30% for SVP sive FPÖ&BZÖ&Stronach, 1/3 for MidRight (FDP&CVP; ÖVP), 1/3 for RedGreen.

[Georg Ebner]

There's not much to report - schools are closed and lots of vacations, lasting into early/mid September - what is good news (as it was in 2017) for Kurz, who wanted the election to happen immediately after SummerHolidays, SPÖ&FPÖ postponed the date as far as possible to the 29th.
The PublicBroadcaster ORF has begun its annual "SummerTalks" with 1 PartyLeader each time.
The campaigns have been incredibly issueless - the main interest was, that a Kurz-aide deleted some PMO-documents... - and different to 2017 several topics are en vogue: once more immigration, where FPÖ does best; but this time also climate, which helps the GREENS; also rents and other social policies, what should favour SPÖ - summa summarum Kurz might be finally for many the Golden Mid.
The OpinionPolls detect no real shifts, ÖVP has sunk back from 38% immediately after the Ibiza-video and proclaiming EarlyElections to the 34% they had had before, what was expectable.

[Toylyyev]

Election survey: wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/wahlkabine/1

1. WANDL 134
2. GRÜNE 126
3. JETZT 124

Google translate can't handle the URL on my machine, but their text form can be used to paste the questions.


Edit: "... not necessarily in the right order..."    I am pretty certain to have seen "Grüner Wandel Jetzt" posters somewhere sometime ago, but can't find back any of them in the ether.

 

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 19, 2019 21:05:06 GMT Toylyyev said:

Election survey: wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/wahlkabine/1

1. WANDL 134
2. GRÜNE 126
3. JETZT 124

Google translate can't handle the URL on my machine, but their text form can be used to paste the questions.


Edit: "... not necessarily in the right order..."    I am pretty certain to have seen "Grüner Wandel Jetzt" posters somewhere sometime ago, but can't find back any of them in the ether.

 

Thank You for introducing this site here! (I didn't do it myself, because i considered offering You a version available only in german as being too inpolite.)
By the way: EnnserJedenastik (univ.Vienna) has analized those 26 questions of .wahlkabine.at and found a CorRelation of 81% between ÖVP and FPÖ (2017 only 65%), ÖVP and SPÖ are 46%, ÖVP and NEOS 31%, ÖVP and GREENS 19%. We have to keep in mind, of course, that 26 is no numerous number; that it's unweighted by importance, by full/partial agreement aso.