Austrian federal election 2019

[greenhert]

Only four Lander in Austria yet to finish counting now.

[greenhert]

Vienna (Wien) has not finished counting but the Greens have won three electoral districts in Vienna already: wahl19.bmi.gv.at/9.html

[mrpastelito]

Shocking to see the climate taliban make such a comeback. The Viennese Vororte under the green banner, just as in 1683.

[myth11]

Sept 29, 2019 17:20:18 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 29, 2019 16:56:47 GMT @pieandmash said:

Interesting result. How do you think ÖVP will approach coalition talks? Will we see another ÖVP/FPÖ pact, with the former in a much stronger position, or an ÖVP/Greens/NEOS alliance, or even an ÖVP/SPÖ coalition?

FPÖ won't be willing (and would be too instable).
The GREENS are very left and incapable. Kurz' hope will be, that RendiWagner will steo down and that the right wing around Doskozil will take over (and will not be too instable).

It looks like a big drop in turnout or are there more votes to be counted ?

[greenhert]

In Vienna the OVP vote has actually decreased in most districts, whereas in Tyrol they have polled a majority of votes cast (i.e. 50%+) in many districts, most of all Lienz with 57.4%.

[iainbhx]

Sept 29, 2019 17:49:00 GMT myth11 said:

Sept 29, 2019 17:20:18 GMT Georg Ebner said:

FPÖ won't be willing (and would be too instable).
The GREENS are very left and incapable. Kurz' hope will be, that RendiWagner will steo down and that the right wing around Doskozil will take over (and will not be too instable).

It looks like a big drop in turnout or are there more votes to be counted ?

About a million postals tomorrow.

[edgbaston]

Sept 29, 2019 18:02:01 GMT greenhert said:

In Vienna the OVP vote has actually decreased in most districts, whereas in Tyrol they have polled a majority of votes cast (i.e. 50%+) in many districts, most of all Lienz with 57.4%.

So just the cultural polarisation we are seeing everywhere I guess.

[greenhert]

Sept 29, 2019 18:31:24 GMT edgbaston said:

Sept 29, 2019 18:02:01 GMT greenhert said:

In Vienna the OVP vote has actually decreased in most districts, whereas in Tyrol they have polled a majority of votes cast (i.e. 50%+) in many districts, most of all Lienz with 57.4%.

So just the cultural polarisation we are seeing everywhere I guess.

Indeed. This type of polarisation almost never changes in PR elections, irrespective of actual results achieved by a particular political party.

[greenhert]

Just three districts in Vienna left to count now. All other Austrian Lander have finished counting in this election.

[greenhert]

The Greens topped the poll in seven districts in this Austrian election, all in Vienna. These districts also had particularly marked turnout decreases compared to 2017.

[Sibboleth]

Sept 29, 2019 18:52:06 GMT greenhert said:

The Greens topped the poll in seven districts in this Austrian election, all in Vienna. These districts also had particularly marked turnout decreases compared to 2017.

There was a big vote for the SPÖ in those districts last time, motivated by fears of the FPÖ finishing second nationally.* These people stayed at home today.

_{*Plus o/c a lot of people who normally voted Green but who temporarily abandoned them due to their implosion that year; they have o/c returned home.}

[Sibboleth]

Sept 29, 2019 18:31:24 GMT edgbaston said:

Sept 29, 2019 18:02:01 GMT greenhert said:

In Vienna the OVP vote has actually decreased in most districts, whereas in Tyrol they have polled a majority of votes cast (i.e. 50%+) in many districts, most of all Lienz with 57.4%.

So just the cultural polarisation we are seeing everywhere I guess.

Eh, that's more a return to the norm, just somewhat disguised by what now counts as a national landslide.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2019 17:49:00 GMT myth11 said:

Sept 29, 2019 17:20:18 GMT Georg Ebner said:

FPÖ won't be willing (and would be too instable).
The GREENS are very left and incapable. Kurz' hope will be, that RendiWagner will steo down and that the right wing around Doskozil will take over (and will not be too instable).

It looks like a big drop in turnout or are there more votes to be counted ?

1million (~20%) tomorrow and few on ThursDay.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2019 18:31:24 GMT edgbaston said:

Sept 29, 2019 18:02:01 GMT greenhert said:

In Vienna the OVP vote has actually decreased in most districts, whereas in Tyrol they have polled a majority of votes cast (i.e. 50%+) in many districts, most of all Lienz with 57.4%.

So just the cultural polarisation we are seeing everywhere I guess.

Yes.
Kurz halted the tendency of the XXth (ÖVP-vs.-SPÖ) being replaced by the XXIth (FPÖ-vs.-GREENS) and ÖVP could indeed remain instead of FPÖ, but ÖVP and SPÖ are PensionistsParties.

[Georg Ebner]

UnSurprisingly PrecinctData in the larger cities show, that ÖVP lost (!) % in bourgois areas, while gained moderately in ex-proletarian ones. BlueCollars have went obviously from SPÖ via FPÖ to ÖVP (what Mrs.May had hoped to happen in GB, too).

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2019 18:52:06 GMT greenhert said:

The Greens topped the poll in seven districts in this Austrian election, all in Vienna. These districts also had particularly marked turnout decreases compared to 2017.

For the first time first place certainly in 17. (Hernals).
Historic is also ÖVP's lead in 14. (Penzing) and 23. (Liesing); both will probably disappear tomorrow, though.

[greenhert]

Sept 29, 2019 19:34:01 GMT Georg Ebner said:

UnSurprisingly PrecinctData in the larger cities show, that ÖVP lost (!) % in bourgois areas, while gained moderately in ex-proletarian ones. BlueCollars have went obviously from SPÖ via FPÖ to ÖVP (what Mrs.May had hoped to happen in GB, too).

In some constituencies this did happen in the 2017 UK general election (mostly in the Midlands). But the Con-LD-Lab (in Lab-Con marginals) and LD-Green-Lab sectors of voters exerted a greater electoral effect overall.

[greenhert]

The final results of the Austrian election of 2019 are:

OVP: 38.4% (73 seats)
SPO: 21.5% (41 seats)
FPO: 17.3% (32 seats)
Green: 12.4% (23 seats)
NEOS: 7.4% (14 seats)
JETZT: 1.9%
KPO: 0.7%
WANDL: 0.4%
Others (parties who did not stand in all Lander and made no impact on the result): 0.2%.

[mboy]

So, did the vote of no confidence pay off for the opposition overall? Clearly it did for the Greens, but not for the SPO. But Kutz looks now to be the most powerful PM in recent history in Austria, perhaps he is now the Merkel of Austria? Suspect the opposition could have done with him getting tarnished by the FPO for a few more years?...

[Toylyyev]

Comparison with the vote shares for polling stations and voting cards in the 2013 and 2017 legislative elections:

Nationalratswahl 2013

     electorate   issued cards
      6384308        668810

       Total%   PS%¹   VC%²
   SPÖ  26.82  27.09  24.82
   ÖVP  23.99  23.81  25.29
   FPÖ  20.51  21.4   13.95
 GRÜNE  12.42  11.47  19.35
 FRANK   5.73   5.82   5.22
  NEOS   4.96   4.23   6.12
Others   5.57   6.18   5.25

valid#       4127384 565523

Nationalratswahl 2017

     electorate   issued cards
      6400998        889193

       Total%   PS%¹   VC%²
   ÖVP  31.47  31.36  32.07
   SPÖ  26.86  26.75  27.47
   FPÖ  25.97  27.35  18.47
  NEOS   5.3    4.96   7.12
  PILZ   4.41   4.14   5.87
 GRÜNE   3.8    3.32   6.41
Others   2.2    2.13   2.6

valid#       4279323 790606

Nationalratswahl 2019

     electorate   issued cards
      6396796       1070933

       Total%   PS%¹   VC%²
   ÖVP  37.1   38.35    -
   SPÖ  21.7   21.54    -
   FPÖ  16.1   17.25    -
 GRÜNE  14     12.35    -
  NEOS   7.8    7.36    -
Others   3.3    3.13    -
   (ORF prediction)          
valid#       3826412

Turnout according to ORF:  75.5% (-4.5)
BPÖ (Austrian Beer Party) share in Vienna: 0.62%


[1] Polling stations vote shares.
[2] Voting cards (and postal votes) shares.