Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825 
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 15:29:45 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Sept 30, 2019 18:02:40 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Sept 30, 2019 19:41:13 GMT
You appear not to have noticed despite it being mentioned several times yesterday that a very large tranche of postal votes were being counted today and that turnout is now standing at around 75,1 % of the vote with another much smaller tranche to come on Thursday. So really, your analysis probably needs to reworked somewhat. |
|
Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
|
Post by Toylyyev on Sept 30, 2019 19:54:38 GMT
2019 postal vote result added to the comparison with the vote shares for polling stations and voting cards in the 2013 and 2017 legislative elections. Nationalratswahl 2013
electorate issued cards
6384308 668810
Total% PS%¹ PV%² VC%³
SPÖ 26.82 27.09 25.09 20.17
ÖVP 23.99 23.81 25.55 20.84
FPÖ 20.51 21.4 14 13.13
GRÜNE 12.42 11.47 19.07 24.38
FRANK 5.73 5.82 5.28 4.04
NEOS 4.96 4.23 5.86 10.63
Others 5.57 6.18 5.15 6.81
valid% 73.51
valid# 4127384 534944 30579
Nationalratswahl 2017
electorate issued cards
6400998 889193
Total% PS%¹ PV%² VC%³
ÖVP 31.47 31.36 32.4 25.36
SPÖ 26.86 26.75 27.51 26.52
FPÖ 25.97 27.35 18.6 15.7
NEOS 5.3 4.96 6.91 11.29
PILZ 4.41 4.14 5.71 9.23
GRÜNE 3.8 3.32 6.3 8.53
Others 2.2 2.13 2.87 3.37
valid% 79.21
valid# 4279323 753497 37109
Nationalratswahl 2019
electorate issued cards
6396802 1070933
ORF% Sum% PS%¹ PV%² VC%³
ÖVP 37.4 37.54 38.36 34.13 -
SPÖ 21.5 21.22 21.54 19.87 -
FPÖ 16.1 16.21 17.25 11.87 -
GRÜNE 13.8 13.8 12.36 19.85 -
NEOS 7.9 8.06 7.36 10.97 -
Others 3.3 3.17 3.13 3.32 -
pre-
valid# diction 3826569 917927
[1] Polling stations vote shares. [2] Voting cards - part 1 (postal votes) shares. [3] Voting cards - part 2 shares. Edit: (2/10) ORF have made an updated prognosis with all of the postal vote factored in, with changes of +0.1 for the ÖVP, -0.3 for the SPÖ, +0.1 for the FPÖ, and +0.2 for NEOS relative to the numbers in red above which were based on a 30% share of counted postals. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2019 20:20:23 GMT
Few ObJections: You write, as if FPÖ was punished in 2002 because if the EU-sanctions, but the contrary was true: They held up fairly well in 2000/1 due to them. Peter Pilz departed de iure from the "party"'s LeaderShip, right - nontheless he was de facto leading the list and participating in the TeleVision-debates. Some might remember, how i see NEOS: It is true, that their main founders came from the liberal BusinessWing of ÖVP (few, by the way, also from the right wing of GreenEconomy, which represents the GREENS' BusinessMen), but any BusinessLiberalism ("NeoLiberalism") is deeply unpopular in the HomeCountry of v.MISES, v.HAYEK, J.SCHUMPETER aso.; as a result NEOS is basically very vague on "privatizations" (because of their young electorate they are quite openly for higher RetirementAges though) and focus more on LeftLiberalism (fanatically antiFPÖ, HomoSexuals, USE, ClimateChange) - in short: They are clearly more LibDems than FDP, more D'66 than VVD. |
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 30, 2019 20:38:40 GMT
You appear not to have noticed despite it being mentioned several times yesterday that a very large tranche of postal votes were being counted today and that turnout is now standing at around 75,1 % of the vote with another much smaller tranche to come on Thursday. So really, your analysis probably needs to reworked somewhat. ‘Analysis’. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 1, 2019 1:56:25 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 1, 2019 9:42:02 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2019 10:24:50 GMT
Possible that OVP will outpoll both SPO *and* FPO  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2019 11:51:27 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2019 11:52:58 GMT
Possible that OVP will outpoll both SPO *and* FPO Very right You are. Will be very close on ThursDay. Surprising, that even in Styria ÖVP is stronger than SPÖ&FPÖ. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2019 13:33:11 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2019 20:06:48 GMT
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 2, 2019 14:11:55 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2019 19:03:53 GMT
Whats with the Socialist belt in the (apparently) rural centre of Styria ?
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 2, 2019 20:54:24 GMT
Whats with the Socialist belt in the (apparently) rural centre of Styria ? Industrial area; iron and steel. For instance, even in this election of all elections the small town of Eisenerz (home to a massive open-pit iron ore mine) gave the SPÖ a 15pt lead with twice their national vote share. This, by the way, is also a factor in the formerly Slovene speaking area in the extreme south east of Carinthia that you mentioned the other day - though that would be more postindustrial than still industrial. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 3, 2019 9:20:03 GMT
Another curiosity is that patch of NEOS support out in Vorarlberg.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 3, 2019 12:58:11 GMT
Another curiosity is that patch of NEOS support out in Vorarlberg. On the one hand FoundingFather Strolz came from there. On the other hand Vorarlberg is the area, where a somewhat BusinessLiberal party must do best in Austria. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 3, 2019 13:10:53 GMT
Whats with the Socialist belt in the (apparently) rural centre of Styria ? Industrial area; iron and steel. For instance, even in this election of all elections the small town of Eisenerz (home to a massive open-pit iron ore mine) gave the SPÖ a 15pt lead with twice their national vote share. This, by the way, is also a factor in the formerly Slovene speaking area in the extreme south east of Carinthia that you mentioned the other day - though that would be more postindustrial than still industrial. Although the SPÖ-strength in UpperStyria is not a given: The dominating company (AlpineMontan) was able to break the SocialDemocrats' dominance in the late 1920ies by paying the HeimWehr strongly and pressuring workers. SE-Carnthia was never been industrial, though: Some guns in Ferlach (directly south of Klagenfurt), few oil in Finkenstein. As a consequence the Slovenes had voted before the rise of the Tito-partisans mainly black (the federal ChristianSocialParty) or black (Slovene nationals, who were also quite clerical - a priest was among their regional MPs), some green, i.e. for the rather german-national FarmersParty LandBund. |
|
Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
|
Post by Toylyyev on Oct 3, 2019 19:57:54 GMT
The last votes to be counted for determining the seat numbers were the voting cards type 2, which are handed out to voters that turn up in the wrong polling station. There still are some uncounted preference votes left for tomorrow, and the FPÖ's in trouble again there: vaaju.com/austriaeng/fpo-manager-hofer-is-annoyed-by-invalid-preference-votes/Nationalratswahl 2013
electorate issued cards
6384308 668810
Total% PS%¹ PV%² VC%³ Seats
SPÖ 26.82 27.09 25.09 20.17 | 52
ÖVP 23.99 23.81 25.55 20.84 | 47
FPÖ 20.51 21.4 14 13.13 | 40
GRÜNE 12.42 11.47 19.07 24.38 | 24
FRANK 5.73 5.82 5.28 4.04 | 11
NEOS 4.96 4.23 5.86 10.63 | 9
Others 5.57 6.18 5.15 6.81 |
valid% 73.51 |
valid# 4127384 534944 30579 | 183
Nationalratswahl 2017
electorate issued cards
6400998 889193
Total% PS%¹ PV%² VC%³ Seats
ÖVP 31.47 31.36 32.4 25.36 | 62
SPÖ 26.86 26.75 27.51 26.52 | 52
FPÖ 25.97 27.35 18.6 15.7 | 51
NEOS 5.3 4.96 6.91 11.29 | 10
PILZ 4.41 4.14 5.71 9.23 | 8
GRÜNE 3.8 3.32 6.3 8.53 |
Others 2.2 2.13 2.87 3.37 |
valid% 79.21 |
valid# 4279323 753497 37109 | 183
Nationalratswahl 2019
electorate issued cards
6396802 1070933
Total% PS%¹ PV%² VC%³ Seats
ÖVP 37.46 38.36 34.13 25.78 | 71
SPÖ 21.18 21.54 19.87 15.63 | 40
FPÖ 16.17 17.25 11.87 10.62 | 31
GRÜNE 13.9 12.36 19.85 27.77 | 26
NEOS 8.1 7.36 10.97 14.64 | 15
Others 3.18 3.13 3.32 5.56 |
valid% 74.68 |
valid# 3826569 917925 32752 | 183
[1] Polling stations vote shares. [2] Voting cards - part 1 (postal votes) shares. [3] Voting cards - part 2 shares. Ps: A pretty graphics visualisation on how the seats are allocated: vis.strategieanalysen.at/mandate (in German, not google translatable) Pps: The Beer Party vote correlates best with the FPÖ vote in Vienna, followed by the SPÖ one. And in a change from the customary dog pictures a grass snake turned up in a polling station in the Mühlviertel in Upper Austria. (merkur.de link with photos)  |
|
