Northumbria PCC by-election

[Pete Whitehead]

If it had been AV, isn't it more likely that the Independent would have won?

[Merseymike]

Jul 19, 2019 12:23:20 GMT The Bishop said:

Well that's a relief, and means SV hasn't delivered one of the ridiculous results of which it is all too capable.

Its a reason why I am strongly opposed to all preference systems. The argument for proportiona systems is that they produce a more representative parliament. This is electing an individual. I think giving creedence to people's second choices is not sensible - should be FPTP

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 19, 2019 13:10:42 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

If it had been AV, isn't it more likely that the Independent would have won?

Yes. SV requires voters to guess who will be in the top two. Sometimes that's easy; sometimes it's impossible. The Doncaster Mayoral election of 2009 is the classic occasion of the latter.

[michaelarden]

Jul 19, 2019 11:10:06 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

[td]Candidate	Gateshead	Newcastle	North Tyneside	Northumberland	South Tyneside	Sunderland	Total
Georgina Emma Rowley Hill	3,713	6,332	4,040	7,961	4,277	7,381	33,704
Cara Kim McGuinness	8,394	14,575	9,116	8,894	6,228	11,148	58,355
Robbie Moore	2,998	5,326	5,591	10,503	2,554	6,295	33,267
Jonathan Wallace	5,595	7,110	3,186	5,807	1,926	4,999	28,623

Those figures for Northumberland are pretty dire for the Lib Dems chances in Berwick on Tweed.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I was surprised by the Lib Dem underperformance. They have had some good local elections - especially in Sunderland - but it just didn't show here.

[timrollpickering]

Jul 19, 2019 13:11:59 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jul 19, 2019 13:10:42 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

If it had been AV, isn't it more likely that the Independent would have won?

Yes. SV requires voters to guess who will be in the top two. Sometimes that's easy; sometimes it's impossible. The Doncaster Mayoral election of 2009 is the classic occasion of the latter.

Wasn't there a Torbay election that put Doncaster to shame with a ballot paper full of independent Conservative candidates?

[Merseymike]

The 'None Of The Above' vote largely ended up in Hill's lap.

Also, there is a definite advantage in running for PCC as an independent - I think that many voters feel that it isn't right to have a politician running the police. Indeed, it was one of the reasons why the old police authorities had independent and magistrate members who weren't under party political control. Look at the results of PCC votes and independents have consistently done well

[liverpoolliberal]

Jul 19, 2019 13:33:39 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I was surprised by the Lib Dem underperformance. They have had some good local elections - especially in Sunderland - but it just didn't show here.

I feel like calling being up 8%, nearly doubling our vote share, with the presence of an Independent to hoover up the "none of the above" vote, an underperformance is somewhat harsh. I'd say the only underwhelming part of our performance is in Northumberland, but I'd hardly call getting 19% for us in the North East an underperformance. North & South Tyneside might possibly be the darkest of black hole areas for us at the moment.

[yellowperil]

Jul 19, 2019 13:33:39 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I was surprised by the Lib Dem underperformance. They have had some good local elections - especially in Sunderland - but it just didn't show here.

I think this has often been true of these particular elections. For Lib Dems to do well, they have to campaign twice as hard as anyone else. To do that, they have to believe that the outcome of the election matters. Quite difficult in these cases.

In the circs , I agree with liverpoolliberal the result was reasonably creditable and any going forward in these conditions is that. but if we could only get stuck in and suspended belief in the whole farce, maybe we could have got the second slot and then at stage 2 anything could have happened... and then of course...well,  so what?

[neilm]

Jul 19, 2019 12:30:11 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

So, three things. Firstly, a tweet in her name is congratulating her. What now? Secondly, "Commsioner McGuinness"- is Northumbria now Gotham City? Thirdly, what happened to the fit politicians thread?

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 19, 2019 19:29:18 GMT neilm said:

Jul 19, 2019 12:30:11 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

So, three things. Firstly, a tweet in her name is congratulating her. What now? Secondly, "Commsioner McGuinness"- is Northumbria now Gotham City? Thirdly, what happened to the fit politicians thread?

First and third both occurred to me. Fourthly, shouldn't serving Police officers be politically neutral?

[torremark]

Jul 19, 2019 19:29:18 GMT neilm said:

Jul 19, 2019 12:30:11 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

So, three things. Firstly, a tweet in her name is congratulating her. What now? Secondly, "Commsioner McGuinness"- is Northumbria now Gotham City? Thirdly, what happened to the fit politicians thread?

Is there any link between the independent and TBP.? Her election material is all in their color and she has retweeted TBP posts.

[jamie]

Jul 19, 2019 19:40:55 GMT torremark said:

Is there any link between the independent and TBP.? Her election material is all in their color and she has retweeted TBP posts.

She’s a former Conservative and seems pretty right wing. However, she hasn’t defected to them on Northumberland council and I haven’t seem any endorsements. Presumably just advocating her personal views on Brexit. 

[bjornhattan]

Jul 19, 2019 19:40:55 GMT torremark said:

Jul 19, 2019 19:29:18 GMT neilm said:

So, three things. Firstly, a tweet in her name is congratulating her. What now? Secondly, "Commsioner McGuinness"- is Northumbria now Gotham City? Thirdly, what happened to the fit politicians thread?

Is there any link between the independent and TBP.? Her election material is all in their color and she has retweeted TBP posts.

I suspect there was an informal link - certainly the fact they stood no candidate despite their current momentum seems odd. It also seems like some of her other views were in line with what you'd expect from the Brexit Party - railing against amorphous "political correctness" for example. I think it might have got her over the line though, considering the 0.3% gap between her and third.

[timmullen1]

Jul 20, 2019 0:53:20 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jul 19, 2019 19:40:55 GMT torremark said:

Is there any link between the independent and TBP.? Her election material is all in their color and she has retweeted TBP posts.

I suspect there was an informal link - certainly the fact they stood no candidate despite their current momentum seems odd. It also seems like some of her other views were in line with what you'd expect from the Brexit Party - railing against amorphous "political correctness" for example. I think it might have got her over the line though, considering the 0.3% gap between her and third.

Her former employer, Trevelyan, is a ERG member, or close ally at worst, so it wouldn’t be a huge leap politically. Farage when at UKIP opposed the concept of PCCs, so possibly it was felt to be hypocritical to actually contend for one.

Meanwhile:

[John Chanin]

Very disappointing that the turnout was as high as15%. I was hoping for something closer to 10%. The problem is all these postal votes these days - it makes it too easy to vote.........😊

[edgbaston]

Jul 19, 2019 19:34:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 19, 2019 19:29:18 GMT neilm said:

So, three things. Firstly, a tweet in her name is congratulating her. What now? Secondly, "Commsioner McGuinness"- is Northumbria now Gotham City? Thirdly, what happened to the fit politicians thread?

First and third both occurred to me. Fourthly, shouldn't serving Police officers be politically neutral?

I see more and more police officers openly backing Labour. It will hopefully become another public sector base of support along with NHS staff and council workers.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 20, 2019 7:32:32 GMT edgbaston said:

Jul 19, 2019 19:34:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

First and third both occurred to me. Fourthly, shouldn't serving Police officers be politically neutral?

I see more and more police officers openly backing Labour. It will hopefully become another public sector base of support along with NHS staff and council workers.

It was the 'openly' bit I was questioning. I was always under the impression that Police officers were not supposed to publicly declare a political affiliation. Of course many will have a private political affiliation and it isn't surprising if increasingly these involve pro-Labour views, given the influx into the profession of left wing sociology graduates and the like as well as the focus on recruiting from certain 'under-represented groups' which happen to also be the Labour party's main client groups

[Merseymike]

Serving officers cannot be active in a political party. I think it's similar to political restriction

[matureleft]

Jul 20, 2019 9:50:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 20, 2019 7:32:32 GMT edgbaston said:

I see more and more police officers openly backing Labour. It will hopefully become another public sector base of support along with NHS staff and council workers.

It was the 'openly' bit I was questioning. I was always under the impression that Police officers were not supposed to publicly declare a political affiliation. Of course many will have a private political affiliation and it isn't surprising if increasingly these involve pro-Labour views, given the influx into the profession of left wing sociology graduates and the like as well as the focus on recruiting from certain 'under-represented groups' which happen to also be the Labour party's main client groups

In my experience there’s always been a few Labour supporters (confirmed by my partner who is a retired police officer). However she reflects the more likely cause of an increase in Labour sympathies. There’s been a relentless pressure on police spending since 2010 while the tasks officers face continue to increase. There’s also been some (understandable to an outsider) assault on aspects of their terms and conditions.  That, together with Brexit, has shifted her from an instinctive Tory to politically homeless.

If you recall the Federation involvement around the Andrew Mitchell case you’ll see that some political (if not nakedly party political) edge isn’t new in this largely Tory period of government.