Brecon and Radnorshire

[mboy]

Lol

[seanryanj]

Jun 2, 2019 16:33:20 GMT matureleft said:

The result of the petition may fall within the period in which Tory MPs are voting for their two candidates to put to members depending on how quickly the also-rans drop out. I don't see him among those who have declared support for a particular candidate (and I'd guess that those candidates are being careful not to ask him to declare?!). With his Brexit stance you'd expect him to be backing Raab or Johnson, at least at the death.

At this rate sure he might as well put himself up up there as a leadership candidate himself!

[LDCaerdydd]

Public Service Announcement:

Recall petition closes on Thursday at 5pm.
Counting starts at 10am on Friday morning. I'd imagine the result will be announced early afternoon.

[johng]

Jun 17, 2019 12:47:15 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Public Service Announcement:

Recall petition closes on Thursday at 5pm.
Counting starts at 10am on Friday morning. I'd imagine the result will be announced early afternoon.

The Lib Dems have put in a lot of groundwork here. I'd be very surprised if the petition wans't successful.

[cibwr]

Though it looks like Powys is doing the bare minimum that it can to make the petition accessible

[matureleft]

The timing is perfect for the MP to cast his votes in all the rounds of the Tory leadership election. I believe he's been silent on who he supports. I assume he'll at least end up in Johnson's camp.

[samdwebber]

Jun 17, 2019 12:47:15 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Public Service Announcement:

Recall petition closes on Thursday at 5pm.
Counting starts at 10am on Friday morning. I'd imagine the result will be announced early afternoon.

I am sure this is accurate but isnt the authority able to keep a running total so that like Peterborough they can declare the final number of signatories and % of the electorate within an hour or two of the deadline?

Perhaps it is the council avoiding some overtime payments and cheaper to do on friday morning - plus large rural seat so maybe some ferrying around from the signing stations is necessary?

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 18, 2019 10:18:28 GMT samdwebber said:

Jun 17, 2019 12:47:15 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Public Service Announcement:

Recall petition closes on Thursday at 5pm.
Counting starts at 10am on Friday morning. I'd imagine the result will be announced early afternoon.

I am sure this is accurate but isnt the authority able to keep a running total so that like Peterborough they can declare the final number of signatories and % of the electorate within an hour or two of the deadline?

Perhaps it is the council avoiding some overtime payments and cheaper to do on friday morning - plus large rural seat so maybe some ferrying around from the signing stations is necessary?

I'm not sure if they keep a running total, but they'll need to look at every slip, to ensure they're signed, (rather than void). Not sure how the postal 'vote' verification happens.

The RO will also need to inform the sitting MP and The Speaker before announcing it publicly.

Powys counted their 2008 and 2017 Council Elections on the Friday (can't remember 2012) and were fairly efficient in doing so.

[samdwebber]

Ok thanks. If the petition is successful how soon would we expect a by-election to take place? Am I right in saying a writ could be moved on Friday itself even thought it is a non sitting day? Monday next week more likely.

A late July or early August poll?

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 18, 2019 10:39:34 GMT samdwebber said:

Ok thanks. If the petition is successful how soon would we expect a by-election to take place? Am I right in saying a writ could be moved on Friday itself even thought it is a non sitting day? Monday next week more likely.

A late July or early August poll?

I *think* this is an example of where the Speaker moves the writ (rather than the defending party), so it would in all likelihood happen on 18th July.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

No. If a seat is vacated as a result of a successful recall petition, the writ is still moved by the party of the outgoing MP.

[0oh]

I would expect them to move the writ as soon as possible so that blame falls under the May regime.

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 18, 2019 10:53:47 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

No. If a seat is vacated as a result of a successful recall petition, the writ is still moved by the party of the outgoing MP.

Or the Lib Dems could publicly state on Friday that if the Conservatives don't do it within a week, they'll do it themselves.

(Resists getting on soapbox about why political parties shouldn't have the power to move writs)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jun 18, 2019 11:25:18 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Jun 18, 2019 10:53:47 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

No. If a seat is vacated as a result of a successful recall petition, the writ is still moved by the party of the outgoing MP.

Or the Lib Dems could publicly state on Friday that if the Conservatives don't do it within a week, they'll do it themselves.

(Resists getting on soapbox about why political parties shouldn't have the power to move writs)

It's not a question of power, it's an issue where the political parties have come to an agreement between themselves which is in their common interest. (One which the Lib Dems have previously reneged on 'cause they're a bunch of untrustworthy so-and-sos)

[John Chanin]

I presume the Conservatives will put up the sitting MP for re-election if the recall petition is successful. It wasn't a major breach.

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 18, 2019 11:37:12 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jun 18, 2019 11:25:18 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Or the Lib Dems could publicly state on Friday that if the Conservatives don't do it within a week, they'll do it themselves.

(Resists getting on soapbox about why political parties shouldn't have the power to move writs)

It's not a question of power, it's an issue where the political parties have come to an agreement between themselves which is in their common interest. (One which the Lib Dems have previously reneged on 'cause they're a bunch of untrustworthy so-and-sos)

No it absolutely is power - it's the power to call one today/now or to delay it three or four months.

Don't you think it's in voters interests to have a by-election sooner rather than later - especially hypothetically in this seat if the sitting MP has been kicked out by his constituents?

Jun 18, 2019 11:41:33 GMT John Chanin said:

I presume the Conservatives will put up the sitting MP for re-election if the recall petition is successful. It wasn't a major breach.

There local chair has said he wan't Chris Davies to re-stand. I have no idea if CCHQ has any say or way of stopping him.

If the by-election occurs after 11-12% of the electorate signing he might fancy his chances. If it's more towards the 20% he might feel it best to walk away.

[polaris]

Jun 18, 2019 11:41:33 GMT John Chanin said:

I presume the Conservatives will put up the sitting MP for re-election if the recall petition is successful. It wasn't a major breach.

That really would be suicidal.....

This is all looking good for the LibDems. A by-election win is an essential ingredient for any liberal revival, rather like sugar in a cake.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jun 18, 2019 12:21:37 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Jun 18, 2019 11:37:12 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It's not a question of power, it's an issue where the political parties have come to an agreement between themselves which is in their common interest. (One which the Lib Dems have previously reneged on 'cause they're a bunch of untrustworthy so-and-sos)

No it absolutely is power - it's the power to call one today/now or to delay it three or four months.

No, it is not power, you twit. Any MP has the power to move the writ. It is only by agreement it is left to the Chief Whip of the party that holds the seat. Understand now?

Don't you think it's in voters interests to have a by-election sooner rather than later - especially hypothetically in this seat if the sitting MP has been kicked out by his constituents?

1) It is not necessarily in the best interest of the electors to have a quick byelection.
2) This has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was making.

[Deleted]

I've selected other. The euro result for the Brexit Party in Powys wasn't that different from the euro result in Peterborough. Gonna stick my neck out on this one

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 18, 2019 12:53:43 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jun 18, 2019 12:21:37 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

No it absolutely is power - it's the power to call one today/now or to delay it three or four months.

No, it is not power, you twit. Any MP has the power to move the writ. It is only by agreement it is left to the Chief Whip of the party that holds the seat. Understand now?

Don't you think it's in voters interests to have a by-election sooner rather than later - especially hypothetically in this seat if the sitting MP has been kicked out by his constituents?

1) It is not necessarily in the best interest of the electors to have a quick byelection.
2) This has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was making.

I did say:

Or the Lib Dems could publicly state on Friday that if the Conservatives don't do it within a week, they'll do it themselves.

I have no objection to the Conservatives moving the writ within the next week/ten days at most. What I would have objection to is the Conservatives moving the writ in say five or six months time.