|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 18, 2019 13:14:37 GMT
I have no objection to the Conservatives moving the writ within the next week/ten days at most. What I would have objection to is the Conservatives moving the writ in say five or six months time. They could not do that, being bound by the terms of the Speaker's Conference of 1973: "1. The Conference, conscious that the intervals before the issue of by-election writs have on occasion been unduly prolonged, put forward the following guidelines: (a) The motion for a writ for a by-election should normally be moved within three months of a vacancy arising. (b) It is inexpedient for by-elections to be held in August, or at the time of local elections in April/May, or in the period from mid-December to mid-February before (under present arrangements) a new Register is issued. (c) Consequently, if this restriction should bring the date of the by-election into one of these periods, the by-election should if practicable be held earlier. If this is impractical the period should be lengthened by the shortest possible additional time. The total period (from vacancy to the moving of the writ) should not be more than four months. (d) In the fifth year of a Parliament, some relaxation of these guidelines should be allowed, in order if possible to avoid by-elections being held immediately before a general election." |
|
|
|
Post by polaris on Jun 18, 2019 13:16:29 GMT
I've selected other. The euro result for the Brexit Party in Powys wasn't that different from the euro result in Peterborough. Gonna stick my neck out on this one What Peterborough showed us is that the Brexit Party - like UKIP before them - haven't got a clue about how to fight the ground war in a by-election.
By contrast, the LibDems are real by-election experts. It's their specialty. They have been pulling off big by-election wins since Torrington in the late 1950s.
I'd be very surprised if the LibDems don't win.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,443
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2019 14:10:20 GMT
I've selected other. The euro result for the Brexit Party in Powys wasn't that different from the euro result in Peterborough. Gonna stick my neck out on this one What Peterborough showed us is that the Brexit Party - like UKIP before them - haven't got a clue about how to fight the ground war in a by-election.
By contrast, the LibDems are real by-election experts. It's their specialty. They have been pulling off big by-election wins since Torrington in the late 1950s.
I'd be very surprised if the LibDems don't win.
Me too. The LibDems came second in both 2015 and 2017 and held the seat as recently as 2010. They are the obvious challengers, particularly with a split Tory vote, and Labour out of the running here |
|
|
|
Post by hugh01 on Jun 18, 2019 14:20:35 GMT
Ok thanks. If the petition is successful how soon would we expect a by-election to take place? Am I right in saying a writ could be moved on Friday itself even thought it is a non sitting day? Monday next week more likely. A late July or early August poll? I *think* this is an example of where the Speaker moves the writ (rather than the defending party), so it would in all likelihood happen on 18th July. Thursday. Before the Royal Welsh Show at Builth Wells, if they’re not careful they could end up with it a week later on the Thursday of the show where Wales comes to a halt at the bridge in Builth. Powys CC count in one of the exhibition halls on the show ground.well they wont be this time around ! A very bad time of year, possibly the worst time in Brecon and Radnorshire |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 18, 2019 14:21:45 GMT
There are no examples of where the Speaker moves the writ.
|
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 18, 2019 14:35:16 GMT
I *think* this is an example of where the Speaker moves the writ (rather than the defending party), so it would in all likelihood happen on 18th July. Thursday. Before the Royal Welsh Show at Builth Wells, if they’re not careful they could end up with it a week later on the Thursday of the show where Wales comes to a halt at the bridge in Builth. Powys CC count in one of the exhibition halls on the show ground.well they wont be this time around ! A very bad time of year, possibly the worst time in Brecon and Radnorshire It would be ridiculous to hold it that day. That thought entered my mind when I posted my earlier comment. All the more reason to move it ASAP (should it be needed of course) to avoid a clash. |
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Jun 18, 2019 15:08:03 GMT
What Peterborough showed us is that the Brexit Party - like UKIP before them - haven't got a clue about how to fight the ground war in a by-election.
By contrast, the LibDems are real by-election experts. It's their specialty. They have been pulling off big by-election wins since Torrington in the late 1950s.
I'd be very surprised if the LibDems don't win.
Me too. The LibDems came second in both 2015 and 2017 and held the seat as recently as 2010. They are the obvious challengers, particularly with a split Tory vote, and Labour out of the running here Though Labour was a close second at the July 1985 by election. |
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Jun 18, 2019 15:09:43 GMT
There are no examples of where the Speaker moves the writ. Indeed - Labour's Nick Brown moved the writ for Peterborough. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,443
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2019 15:10:07 GMT
Me too. The LibDems came second in both 2015 and 2017 and held the seat as recently as 2010. They are the obvious challengers, particularly with a split Tory vote, and Labour out of the running here Though Labour was a close second at the July 1985 by election. years ago - since then we haven't come higher than third, and its a seat where the rural section of the vote has become proportionately more influential and less Labour. I don't think anyone considers this to be a likely Labour seat. |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Jun 18, 2019 15:19:45 GMT
There remains a significant Labour vote. I could be wrong but have Labour been sitting on their hands through the petition process? Tactically they might not want to help prompt a by-election winnable by the Lib Dems that could give them additional momentum.
|
|
|
|
Post by samdwebber on Jun 18, 2019 15:23:52 GMT
A political anorak informs me the rules on election timetables changed in 2013 pointing possibly to first week of August not July? Guess we will find out more next week.
I understand both Plaid and the local Conservatives on the ground expect that there will be a by-election here, but nobody will know for sure until the announcement of course.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 18, 2019 15:26:11 GMT
Labour's base has always been in the Ystradgynlais area, a small area of ex-mining villages in the far south west of the seat. But Labour has been losing votes in the South Wales valley generally and this bit is no exception. Unless Labour suddenly becomes popular among farmers I don't think the candidate has much of a chance.
|
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Jun 18, 2019 15:27:37 GMT
A political anorak informs me the rules on election timetables changed in 2013 pointing possibly to first week of August not July? Guess we will find out more next week. I understand both Plaid and the local Conservatives on the ground expect that there will be a by-election here, but nobody will know for sure until the announcement of course. Whether it's due to a rule change or not, a byelection happens between 21 and 27 working days of the writ being moved, so I'd expect it to take place then - and certainly not as early as the 18th. |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 18, 2019 15:43:01 GMT
There remains a significant Labour vote. I could be wrong but have Labour been sitting on their hands through the petition process? Tactically they might not want to help prompt a by-election winnable by the Lib Dems that could give them additional momentum. Labour and Plaid Cymru both registered to campaign for the petition to be successful. They’ve put out a joint leaflet (seems to be locally coordinated by the Council Groups, rather than by their respective HQs) |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,725
Member is Online
|
Post by mboy on Jun 18, 2019 15:45:45 GMT
I presume the Conservatives will put up the sitting MP for re-election if the recall petition is successful. . I certainly hope so  |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,443
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2019 15:56:05 GMT
Labour's base has always been in the Ystradgynlais area, a small area of ex-mining villages in the far south west of the seat. But Labour has been losing votes in the South Wales valley generally and this bit is no exception. Unless Labour suddenly becomes popular among farmers I don't think the candidate has much of a chance. We still hold most of the councillors there. Thing is, it only makes up about 6500 voters, so even if we get say 60%, on a 65% turnout, thats still no more than 3000 in all |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
|
Post by Sibboleth on Jun 18, 2019 16:03:21 GMT
Labour actually does well in Brecon town in local elections. But the logic of tactical voting has become deeply embedded locally and, anyway, the last time Labour ran a non-paper campaign here was 2001. Of course even ignoring that, there's just the issue that the Labour brand isn't at its highest ebb right now either.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,443
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2019 16:08:52 GMT
Labour actually does well in Brecon town in local elections. But the logic of tactical voting has become deeply embedded locally and, anyway, the last time Labour ran a non-paper campaign here was 2001. Of course even ignoring that, there's just the issue that the Labour brand isn't at its highest ebb right now either. We came third here in 97, 01 - and last time as well. So no matter what, we aren't the obvious challengers here and its a Tory-held seat |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,725
Member is Online
|
Post by mboy on Jun 18, 2019 16:49:56 GMT
Indeed, but wouldn't surprise me at all if elements of the Labour Party wanted to run a spoiler campaign here to prevent a LD win. Certainly that was the effort in Richmond, and I’d expect similar. It wont work, but you’ll try it anyway.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,443
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2019 16:54:58 GMT
Indeed, but wouldn't surprise me at all if elements of the Labour Party wanted to run a spoiler campaign here to prevent a LD win. Certainly that was the effort in Richmond, and I’d expect similar. It wont work, but you’ll try it anyway. We are a national party, so contest every seat, and that includes by-elections, even ones we are clearly not going to win! |
|
