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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 8, 2019 16:46:11 GMT
I have received a reply from Powys County Council electoral services. The full reply is, and I quote: I have replied to the reply, stating that I want a proper reply. I will allow a few days so that they can talk to each other and sort out a response, but if I don't get a proper reply then I may take the matter further. I'm afraid I rather admire the council's response. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Post by john07 on Aug 8, 2019 16:52:13 GMT
I have received a reply from Powys County Council electoral services. The full reply is, and I quote: I have replied to the reply, stating that I want a proper reply. I will allow a few days so that they can talk to each other and sort out a response, but if I don't get a proper reply then I may take the matter further. What if they tell you to piss off? |
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Post by hugh01 on Aug 8, 2019 17:17:40 GMT
I have received a reply from Powys County Council electoral services. The full reply is, and I quote: I have replied to the reply, stating that I want a proper reply. I will allow a few days so that they can talk to each other and sort out a response, but if I don't get a proper reply then I may take the matter further. Wouldn't you be better contacting the high sheriff’s office direct.your beef isn’t with Powys CC electoral services or the Acting Returning Officer (Chief exec) their response is concise and clear, if the high sheriff decided that he wanted to use his reserve powers to declare, Powys electoral services would have written the figures down for him. Your complaint is with the high sheriffs office not with Powys As I've said in my previous post, these days high sheriffs shouldn’t be involved with elections. It’s a throwback to a previous era shich has no place in the modern world today. I suspect if the acting returning officer, who is Powys’s chief executive had declared herself she would’ve done this properly contact details here highsheriffs.com/powys/ |
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 8, 2019 18:23:53 GMT
Given the trajectory of the Conservatives and Labour it would in my view be a mistake to be at least somewhat ambitious. Of course getting cocky and going for seats with huge percentage winning shares e.g. Holborn and St Pancras (at 70.1%) would be a huge tactical error but seats with winning shares in the 40s or low 50s could well be obtainable if the party is over 20% nationally as this would imply shares of over 30% in middles class metropolitan areas (places like most of the North East and East Midlands would still have fairly derisory Lib Dem votes) which could be boosted further by heavy campaigning. A lot of those London seats I mentioned don't have many Lib Dem councillors atm but they probably now have sizeable memberships which if mobilised would be a big asset. Plus South West London (including Richmond Park which should be counted as a surefire Lib Dem pickup) where a lot of the most experienced Lib Dem activists are won't need anywhere near as much campaigning next time so these activists can be deployed to other areas. Same for the Home Counties but with the added benefit of having a stronger councillor base. I believe that far too much is being read into LD success at the EU elections. Turnout was only 37% , both the main parties largely abstained from campaigning , and the attitudes of the minority who did vote tends to be pretty frivolous towards such elections. I will be surprised if Labour loses any London seats to them at a GE. Well they've surged in the polling since then and both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party and their leaders are deeply unpopular. Also the type of voters they've gained are pretty heavily concentrated which will help them gain seats should they stay at the level they currently are at. I'm not claiming they'll win the election or get 150 seats or anything like that but I think they could do well enough in a specific type of seat (wealthy, highly educated, white collar, upper middle class, strongly Remain etc.) to give Labour a shock in London and the Tories a shock in the Home Counties. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 8, 2019 18:38:23 GMT
I believe that far too much is being read into LD success at the EU elections. Turnout was only 37% , both the main parties largely abstained from campaigning , and the attitudes of the minority who did vote tends to be pretty frivolous towards such elections. I will be surprised if Labour loses any London seats to them at a GE. Well they've surged in the polling since then and both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party and their leaders are deeply unpopular. Also the type of voters they've gained are pretty heavily concentrated which will help them gain seats should they stay at the level they currently are at. I'm not claiming they'll win the election or get 150 seats or anything like that but I think they could do well enough in a specific type of seat (wealthy, highly educated, white collar, upper middle class, strongly Remain etc.) to give Labour a shock in London and the Tories a shock in the Home Counties. I think that's right - the Euro elections don't mean that much in themselves but they coincide with similar results in the locals a month before and with polling since - that's a solid pattern (for now) I also agree with your views on target seats but we are in a bit of a bind in being able to sustain a push for that many targets, many of them starting from 3rd or worse, while also wondering whether we should be going again in former strongholds. Part of the value of the Euros is in trying to spot the sort of areas where the potential exists. Another risk is that we do make big gains in a lot of unexpected places and result in a number of Jarad O'Mara/Fiona Onasanya cases of our own. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Aug 8, 2019 20:06:30 GMT
Has anybody seen a poll which asks how people voted in the euros and plan to vote in a general election? Would be interesting to see how much churn there is considering the Lib Dem’s are currently polling their euros result but there will have presumably been a decent number of people who voted Lib Dem in May but plan to vote Labour/Conservative in a general election.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 8, 2019 20:21:34 GMT
Has anybody seen a poll which asks how people voted in the euros and plan to vote in a general election? Would be interesting to see how much churn there is considering the Lib Dem’s are currently polling their euros result but there will have presumably been a decent number of people who voted Lib Dem in May but plan to vote Labour/Conservative in a general election. There were lots of polls during the Euro campaign that asked for Westminster voting intention and Euro voting intention at the same time. In most cases the Lib Dem voting intention was much the same in each case (with quite a lot of variation between pollsters), whereas the Brexit Party was usually doing quite a bit worse in the Westminster case. Example below from YouGov. The Greens were also usually higher in the Euro Poll.
In other words a lot of people were lending their votes to BXP, but most were transferring them to Lib Dem. The changes since the Euro election have borne that out.
There is a possibility that the British Election Study may give us more information but I suspect they were not ready with funding in place for the Euro elections, so probably not..
European Election Voting Intention:
BXP: 34% (+4)
LAB: 16% (-5)
LDM: 15% (+5)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (-3)
CHUK: 5% (-4)
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 24% (-5)
LAB: 24% (-5)
BREX: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+3)
GRN: 7% (+2)
via @yougov
Chgs. w/ 30 Apr
1,076
12:53 AM - May 13, 2019
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 4,362
Member is Online
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 8, 2019 23:10:45 GMT
Has anybody seen a poll which asks how people voted in the euros and plan to vote in a general election? Would be interesting to see how much churn there is considering the Lib Dem’s are currently polling their euros result but there will have presumably been a decent number of people who voted Lib Dem in May but plan to vote Labour/Conservative in a general election. There were lots of polls during the Euro campaign that asked for Westminster voting intention and Euro voting intention at the same time. In most cases the Lib Dem voting intention was much the same in each case (with quite a lot of variation between pollsters), whereas the Brexit Party was usually doing quite a bit worse in the Westminster case. Example below from YouGov. The Greens were also usually higher in the Euro Poll.
In other words a lot of people were lending their votes to BXP, but most were transferring them to Lib Dem. The changes since the Euro election have borne that out.
There is a possibility that the British Election Study may give us more information but I suspect they were not ready with funding in place for the Euro elections, so probably not..
European Election Voting Intention:
BXP: 34% (+4)
LAB: 16% (-5)
LDM: 15% (+5)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (-3)
CHUK: 5% (-4)
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 24% (-5)
LAB: 24% (-5)
BREX: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+3)
GRN: 7% (+2)
via @yougov
Chgs. w/ 30 Apr
1,076
12:53 AM - May 13, 2019
Because most voters live in the political moment these days, it seems. Fickle beasts they have become. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 8, 2019 23:21:36 GMT
There were lots of polls during the Euro campaign that asked for Westminster voting intention and Euro voting intention at the same time. In most cases the Lib Dem voting intention was much the same in each case (with quite a lot of variation between pollsters), whereas the Brexit Party was usually doing quite a bit worse in the Westminster case. Example below from YouGov. The Greens were also usually higher in the Euro Poll.
In other words a lot of people were lending their votes to BXP, but most were transferring them to Lib Dem. The changes since the Euro election have borne that out.
There is a possibility that the British Election Study may give us more information but I suspect they were not ready with funding in place for the Euro elections, so probably not..
European Election Voting Intention:
BXP: 34% (+4)
LAB: 16% (-5)
LDM: 15% (+5)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (-3)
CHUK: 5% (-4)
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 24% (-5)
LAB: 24% (-5)
BREX: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+3)
GRN: 7% (+2)
via @yougov
Chgs. w/ 30 Apr
1,076
12:53 AM - May 13, 2019
Because most voters live in the political moment these days, it seems. Fickle beasts they have become. Nothing above 30% has been loyal support for either Labour or the Tories since the 1980s, so it is not so unusual |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Aug 8, 2019 23:32:55 GMT
I have received a reply from Powys County Council electoral services. The full reply is, and I quote: I have replied to the reply, stating that I want a proper reply. I will allow a few days so that they can talk to each other and sort out a response, but if I don't get a proper reply then I may take the matter further. I'm afraid I rather admire the council's response. I don't, because it was stating the obvious (quite obviously, it was an omission by the R.O.) and didn't answer the question which I asked, which was "why?". And the person didn't sign their name. Anyway, I have already got a further reply, which says which I think I will settle with. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 10, 2019 11:56:37 GMT
I have received a reply from Powys County Council electoral services. The full reply is, and I quote: I have replied to the reply, stating that I want a proper reply. I will allow a few days so that they can talk to each other and sort out a response, but if I don't get a proper reply then I may take the matter further. Have you tried writing in Welsh? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 10, 2019 11:59:23 GMT
I'm afraid I rather admire the council's response. I don't, because it was stating the obvious (quite obviously, it was an omission by the R.O.) and didn't answer the question which I asked, which was "why?". And the person didn't sign their name. Anyway, I have already got a further reply, which says which I think I will settle with. Hang on, this is intriguing. Are they saying the figures were written in English and Welsh rather than as numerals? [By way of explanation, if he had to have it written out perhaps he shouldn't have been making the declaration at all.] |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 12, 2019 5:49:59 GMT
I don't, because it was stating the obvious (quite obviously, it was an omission by the R.O.) and didn't answer the question which I asked, which was "why?". And the person didn't sign their name. Anyway, I have already got a further reply, which says which I think I will settle with. Hang on, this is intriguing. Are they saying the figures were written in English and Welsh rather than as numerals? [By way of explanation, if he had to have it written out perhaps he shouldn't have been making the declaration at all.] It was my feeling at the time that he was reading out all the Welsh bits. And of course had practised the flim flam but the precise numbers were new and he was worried about them. But this was based on body language not pronunciation! Once or twice i have read out student names at degree ceremonies. Some overseas student names can be pretty stressful. Practice is essential.. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 11, 2019 18:06:15 GMT
For those of you who followed the case you may be interested that an employment tribunal is being held this week:
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