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Post by andrew111 on Aug 2, 2019 20:57:38 GMT
After some prompting Cleverley called it a "dirty backroom deal". How would he describe the Tories not standing agaimst "Independent Conservative" Goldsmith in Richmond Park? You maybe assume Cleverley is an honest actor, ha! I think he is a doyen of straight talking
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2019 21:24:44 GMT
Tha Albais furasta, is dòcha gum bi Chris a ’strì nas motha le fìor chànan ge-tà! Aye. I think everyone on this forum but you would tbh.😅 Google Translate taught me everything I know.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 2, 2019 21:45:25 GMT
It is amusing to read the various comments about the Brexit party supposedly supposedly splitting the Conservative vote and letting in the Liberal Democrats, or the so-called Remain alliance taking votes from Plaid Cymru and the Green party. Such people misunderstand how FPTP works. The people who voted for the Brexit party did so because they wanted to. They did not want to vote for the Conservative party. I don't blame the Brexit party; I blame the voters. Everybody knew how the system works. If AV had been in operation, it's unlikely that more than about 30% of the Brexit Party votes would have actually transferred to the Conservatives. The LDs might still have won under that system. I have a theory that results under FPTP are like the final round of AV, except with the vote for excluded candidates remaining with those candidates, instead of being put in the non-transferable pile. Thus 3,331 wanted to put pressure on the government by voting for a rock-solid Brexit, such pressure not working if it simply trasfers to the Conservative.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 2, 2019 21:55:38 GMT
I am still annoyed with the returning Officer for making up the declaration and giving the numbers only in Welsh. I understand Welsh well enough to be able to understand the numbers, and I wrote them down, but even so, I missed the final two digits of the first number, i.e. the 01 for the Conservative candidate. This was because I was not listening fully, and I was expecting the English number afterwards. If I had known in advance that the returning Officer was going to announce the numbers in Welsh only, then I would have been able to listen carefully in Welsh in the first place, and I would have been ready to type the numbers directly into the thread (so that the rest of you could get the Numbers more quickly), instead of writing them down on my piece of paper first.
I noticed that after the Returning Officer announced the number for the first candidate, there was a heckle from somebody in the hall which distracted the Returning Officer, before he continued with the number for the second candidate. For a moment I thought he was going to follow in the path of the returning Officer for Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 1997, who was obviously in a very bad mood. Perhaps the heckle was from somebody asking for the number in English.
I have already emailed the electoral services office at Powys county council to ask why the Returning Officer did not say the numbers in English, and I will email again if I do not receive a reply.
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Post by mrpastelito on Aug 2, 2019 22:27:01 GMT
BxP are a busted flush, Tories did much better than expected. We're going to have an autumn GE (BoJo is in full campaigning mode already) resulting in a comfortable Conservative majority without any Brexit traitors in their ranks, followed by Brexit come January.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,632
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 2, 2019 22:50:29 GMT
BxP are a busted flush, Tories did much better than expected. We're going to have an autumn GE (BoJo is in full campaigning mode already) resulting in a comfortable Conservative majority without any Brexit traitors in their ranks, followed by Brexit come January.
He does realise local elections offices are in the middle of doing the annual register update, and a nation-wide election is going to really mess that up, doesn't he?
(sarc, obs.)
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Post by janwhitby on Aug 2, 2019 23:57:44 GMT
I am still annoyed with the returning Officer for making up the declaration and giving the numbers only in Welsh. I understand Welsh well enough to be able to understand the numbers, and I wrote them down, but even so, I missed the final two digits of the first number, i.e. the 01 for the Conservative candidate. This was because I was not listening fully, and I was expecting the English number afterwards. If I had known in advance that the returning Officer was going to announce the numbers in Welsh only, then I would have been able to listen carefully in Welsh in the first place, and I would have been ready to type the numbers directly into the thread (so that the rest of you could get the Numbers more quickly), instead of writing them down on my piece of paper first. I noticed that after the Returning Officer announced the number for the first candidate, there was a heckle from somebody in the hall which distracted the Returning Officer, before he continued with the number for the second candidate. For a moment I thought he was going to follow in the path of the returning Officer for Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 1997, who was obviously in a very bad mood. Perhaps the heckle was from somebody asking for the number in English. I have already emailed the electoral services office at Powys county council to ask why the Returning Officer did not say the numbers in English, and I will email again if I do not receive a reply. Will you also ask why he did not say the numbers in Gaelic, or Cornish?
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Aug 3, 2019 7:39:51 GMT
When I first saw the result, which was not unexpected, what struck me was the fact that the Monster Raving Loony Party received more votes than UKIP. This must surely hasten the end of UKIP
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 3, 2019 8:13:55 GMT
Will you also ask why he did not say the numbers in Gaelic, or Cornish? And why on earth would he have done that?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2019 8:16:02 GMT
When I first saw the result, which was not unexpected, what struck me was the fact that the Monster Raving Loony Party received more votes than UKIP. This must surely hasten the end of UKIP Like when the SDP was dissolved after being beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party In the Bootle by-election in 1990.
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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 3, 2019 8:17:27 GMT
Agreed. I dont think it kills the Boris bounce, but it prevents it gaining any more steam. It's as good as it gets for Boris now - downhill from here. The other 4 point I agree totally with. It's particularly important for us given the evident lack of defections, for whatever reason. I suspect that the average punter doesn't really give a shit about how somewhere they've never heard of voted in a by-election. Whilst we might all care, I'm not sure much of the population does. They don't. But they have a general sense of what's going on and that is fed by things like by-elections. They're perception will be something like Boris is a knob, Corbyn's not as popular as he was, Lib Dems seen to be doing alright.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 3, 2019 9:59:32 GMT
In fairness he also had substantial strengths as a candidate and was arguably part of why the Tories got a better than expected result. Yes, of course you are correct in that as well. He still had profile and name recognition and appeal in certain sectors..........And thus in part the better result than most had expeced in the early days. But, he must have also been a beacon and reminder to those to whom his failings loomed much larger than too others. This must have been a complete trade off in votes inside our party as well as a differential to TO in the LDs on being more detemined to vote because it was against him. Thinking about this he was probably the safe option whose strong local support ensured a respectable Conservative result but whose baggage made victory extremely unlikely. He was a high floor, low ceiling candidate. A new Conservative candidate would have had a better chance of winning but could also have completely bombed.
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Post by BossMan on Aug 3, 2019 10:11:45 GMT
When I first saw the result, which was not unexpected, what struck me was the fact that the Monster Raving Loony Party received more votes than UKIP. This must surely hasten the end of UKIP Like when the SDP was dissolved after being beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party In the Bootle by-election in 1990. If this doesn't cause UKIP to wind up, nothing will. I suppose there could be a continuity UKIP which will back a United States of Europe with no elected president in about 25 years' time.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 333
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Post by steve on Aug 3, 2019 10:18:01 GMT
Jane Dodds will be the Ossie O'Brien of our day Ashok Kumar (the 1991-92 version) even? Though it has to be said LibDems/Libs/etc have a bit of a history of byelection gains by modest margins being held (even with increased majorities) in the subsequent GE. I certainly wouldn't write off their prospects whenever B&R next goes to the polls, especially given their previous history here. Worth noting that Dodds' initial majority is larger than that of her two Lib Dem predecessors in the constituency and they both went on to be re-elected. Also I don't know if anyone else has noted this but it is the highest turnout in a parliamentary byelection since Winchester (68.7%) in 1997.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 3, 2019 10:23:07 GMT
Another quirk of this byelection - the Tory/Labour percentage changes here are remarkably similar to Newport W a few months ago.
(these seats may be fairly geographically close, but are completely different in almost all other ways)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2019 10:29:50 GMT
The Tories lost Newport West and Brecon & Radnorshire by under 2,000 votes.
Quite impressive.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Aug 3, 2019 11:12:45 GMT
Anyone know which is Labour's worst ever result in Wales? how far back do you want to go? As far back as anyone can give me!
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Post by BossMan on Aug 3, 2019 12:22:11 GMT
how far back do you want to go? As far back as anyone can give me! I would imagine they'll have had some rather low vote shares between 1900 and 1918.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 3, 2019 12:25:57 GMT
I am still annoyed with the returning Officer for making up the declaration and giving the numbers only in Welsh. I understand Welsh well enough to be able to understand the numbers, and I wrote them down, but even so, I missed the final two digits of the first number, i.e. the 01 for the Conservative candidate. This was because I was not listening fully, and I was expecting the English number afterwards. If I had known in advance that the returning Officer was going to announce the numbers in Welsh only, then I would have been able to listen carefully in Welsh in the first place, and I would have been ready to type the numbers directly into the thread (so that the rest of you could get the Numbers more quickly), instead of writing them down on my piece of paper first. I noticed that after the Returning Officer announced the number for the first candidate, there was a heckle from somebody in the hall which distracted the Returning Officer, before he continued with the number for the second candidate. For a moment I thought he was going to follow in the path of the returning Officer for Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 1997, who was obviously in a very bad mood. Perhaps the heckle was from somebody asking for the number in English. I have already emailed the electoral services office at Powys county council to ask why the Returning Officer did not say the numbers in English, and I will email again if I do not receive a reply. Will you also ask why he did not say the numbers in Gaelic, or Cornish? No
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Post by janwhitby on Aug 3, 2019 12:48:32 GMT
Will you also ask why he did not say the numbers in Gaelic, or Cornish? And why on earth would he have done that? and why on earth would we not ask for numbers in other languages indigenous to the UK, if he was not just promoting imperialism by forcing English on the Welsh?
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