Local Council by-elections 14th March

[Tony Otim]

CROYDON LBC; Norbury & Pollards Hill (Lab died)
Candidates:
BEN-HASSEL, Leila (Labour)
BURCHETT, Guy Michael Clinton (Liberal Democrat)
CHANCE, Rachel Mary (Green)
GARNER, Kathleen (UKIP)
GUNTER, Tirena Hilary (Conservative)
O’GRADY, Mark James Gerard (Independent)
ROZNERSKA, Margaret (Independent)

2018: Lab 1981, 1934; Con 644, 638; Grn 299, 291

None of the candidates stood here last year. The Green and the Lib Dem both stood in Crystal Palace and Upper Norwood, whilst Roznerska stood for Duma Polska in Thornton Heath. The Conservative candidate stood for the old Norbury ward in 2014.



DURHAM UA; Wingate (Lab died)
Candidates:
FRY, Gareth David Anthony (For Britain)
HIGGINS, John Robert (Labour)
MILES, Stephen Joseph (North East Party)
SIMPSON, Edwin Herbert (Liberal Democrat)

2017: Lab 577; Con 107; NEP 78; LD 21
2013: Lab 538; Ind 256

The North East Party candidate stood here in 2017. The independent in 2013 was Janet Higgins – no idea if she’s related to the Labour candidate...



SOUTHAMPTON UA; Coxford (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
ATKINS, Sue (Socialist Alternative)
CHAPMAN, Sam Philip (Liberal Democrat)
FLETCHER, David John (Integrity Southampton)
GALTON, Diana June (Conservative)
HUMBER, Derek Lascelles (UKIP)
LAMBERT, Ricky (Independent)
RENYARD, Matthew (Labour)
SANDYS, Cara Anne (Green)

2018: Ind 1595; Lab 958; Con 559; LD 103; Grn 101; Ind 82
2016: INd 1317; Lab 924; UKIP 498; Con 396; LD 113; Ind 84; LD 70
2015: Ind 2300; Lab 1330; Con 1196; UKIP 978; LD 215; Grn 209
2014: Ind 1633; UKIP 796; Lab 724; Con 500; LD 168
2012: Lab 1647; Con 667; LD 334; UKIP 295; Grn 75; TUSC 57; Ind 39
2011: Lab 2004; Con 1112; LD 702
2010: Lab 2379; LD 1826; Con 1769; Ind 279
2008: Con 1018; Lab 986; LD 918; UKIP 287
2007: Lab 1219; LD 1162; Con 784; UKIP 201; Grn 128
2006: LD 1229, Lab 1180; Con 620; Grn 273
2004: LD 1110; Lab 1018; UKIP 510; Con 478
2003: LD 1187; Lab 933; Con 361; Lib 245; BNP 197; UKIP 95
2002: LD 1328, 1272, 1185; Lab 1000, 968, 927; Con 398, 377, 352.

The Labour candidate was the runner-up here last year.
The Indy who resigned, Keith Morrell, first stood as Labour candidate in 2008, before taking a seat off the Lib Dems in 2010. He left labour in 2012 and held the seat as an Indy in 2014 and 2018. One of the other indys, Don Thomas, also started in Labour, being Labour candidate in 2002 and 2006, before taking a Lib Dem seat in 2007, holding as Labour in 2011 and as an Indy in 2015. He has indicated he will be standing down this year. The third indy, elected in 2016, is Tammy Thomas, whom I’m guessing may be Don’s wife?

I'm sure Sharon can offer more detail and correct anything I've got wrong...

[greenhert]

I see TUSC have reverted to their former description. Are Integrity Southampton supporters of Keith Morrell by any chance?

[Deleted]

Feb 25, 2019 23:23:34 GMT greenhert said:

I see TUSC have reverted to their former description. Are Integrity Southampton supporters of Keith Morrell by any chance?

Integrity are a UKIP splinter. Both them and UKIP seem to be campaigning reasonably hard for this by-election, although the UKIP candidate is from Fareham so I'm not sure why they're even bothering. Morrell and the rest of the 'Putting People First' group were officially part of TUSC although they weren't especially left-wing, and despite what they have said in the campaign, the Socialist Alternative candidate doesn't seem to have anything to do with that group at all.

[hedgehog]

In the Norbury and pollards hill by election, Rachel Chance is the wife of Tom Chance.

Who she beat by 207 votes, last year when they both stood in the Crystal Palace and upper Norwood ward. Finishing 9th, ahead of the 3rd Lib Dem candidate, in the 3 member ward.

[finsobruce]

Mar 8, 2019 3:22:00 GMT hedgehog said:

In the Norbury and pollards hill by election, Rachel Chance is the wife of Tom Chance.

Who she beat by 207 votes, last year when they both stood in the Crystal Palace and upper Norwood ward. Finishing 9th, ahead of the 3rd Lib Dem candidate, in the 3 member ward.

Has she got a chance in a million?

[Deleted]

There is a Daily Echo article about the Coxford by-election, but it has been written almost as if the order of the ballot paper is based on relevance of each candidate!

"Now members from several different groups will be hoping locals vote them into the seat.

Sue Atkins from the Socialist Alternative – Putting People First group will battle the Liberal Democrat’s Sam Chapman, Integrity Southampton’s David Fletcher, and the Conservative’s Diana Galton – mother of city council opposition frontbencher Steve Galton.

Derek Humber of UKIP, independent Ricky Lambert, Labour’s Matthew Renyard, and the Green’s Cara Sandys will also stand."

www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/17469060.amp/

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 8, 2019 10:55:55 GMT @nw12398 said:

There is a Daily Echo article about the Coxford by-election, but it has been written almost as if the order of the ballot paper is based on relevance of each candidate!

"Now members from several different groups will be hoping locals vote them into the seat.

Sue Atkins from the Socialist Alternative – Putting People First group will battle the Liberal Democrat’s Sam Chapman, Integrity Southampton’s David Fletcher, and the Conservative’s Diana Galton – mother of city council opposition frontbencher Steve Galton.

Derek Humber of UKIP, independent Ricky Lambert, Labour’s Matthew Renyard, and the Green’s Cara Sandys will also stand."

www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/17469060.amp/

I like the fact that the date of the election has been 'pencilled in' as well

[southernliberal]

Feb 25, 2019 22:05:32 GMT Tony Otim said:

The third indy, elected in 2016, is Tammy Thomas, whom I’m guessing may be Don’s wife?

Tammy is Don's daughter.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 9, 2019 23:29:32 GMT southernliberal said:

Feb 25, 2019 22:05:32 GMT Tony Otim said:

The third indy, elected in 2016, is Tammy Thomas, whom I’m guessing may be Don’s wife?

Tammy is Don's daughter.

Thanks.

[timrollpickering]

As I've noted elsewhere, anyone trying to predict Norbury should remember that "Norbury" was the word to deflate Sherlock Holmes with a reminder of his failed deductions.

[finsobruce]

Mar 11, 2019 20:45:04 GMT timrollpickering said:

As I've noted elsewhere, anyone trying to predict Norbury should remember that "Norbury" was the word to deflate Sherlock Holmes with a reminder of his failed deductions.

A correct prediction should be elementary then.

[andrewteale]

Durham and Southampton results have been added to LEAP in the last week.

Entrants in the prediction competition may wish to note that Ricky Lambert and Richard McQuillan are the same person: www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/8119826.Election_candidate_hopes_namesake_will_propel_him_to_victory/

[timmullen1]

britainelects.com/2019/03/13/previews-14-mar-2019/

[Toylyyev]

britainelects.com/2019/03/13/previews-14-mar-2019/

All of those North East Party seats are in nearby Peterlee (which has Sunderland postcodes) from where their candidate Stephen Miles hails.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/meet-candidates-vying-your-vote-15955688

Stephen Joseph Miles is 61 and was born and bred in Wingate.

[andrewteale]

Mar 13, 2019 16:45:20 GMT Toylyyev said:

britainelects.com/2019/03/13/previews-14-mar-2019/

All of those North East Party seats are in nearby Peterlee (which has Sunderland postcodes) from where their candidate Stephen Miles hails.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/meet-candidates-vying-your-vote-15955688

Stephen Joseph Miles is 61 and was born and bred in Wingate.

"Wingate born and bred" and "hails from Peterlee" are not mutually exclusive.

[hedgehog]

Mar 12, 2019 23:14:00 GMT andrewteale said:

Durham and Southampton results have been added to LEAP in the last week.

Entrants in the prediction competition may wish to note that Ricky Lambert and Richard McQuillan are the same person: www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/8119826.Election_candidate_hopes_namesake_will_propel_him_to_victory/

If only he had changed his name to Matt Le Tissier.

[Deleted]

Polls closing has come around, I know that Southampton will be counting tonight. I can confirm that the Lib Dems ran more than a paper campaign, although personally I wasn't involved and I don't know quite how extensive it was or whether it will work out. The socialists have been working quite hard as well and seem to have latched on to the image of the outgoing councillor, but many voters will be put off with the socialist label. Certainly an election which had to keep Labour on their toes, although they're certainly in a reasonable position to win. I know that UKIP and Integrity have put some effort in, and the Conservatives seem to have been quite quiet, although of course national politics mean they won't be completely irrelevant.

Should be an interesting result although at the same time I wouldn't be overly surprised by a firm Labour win.

[Deleted]

Mar 14, 2019 20:33:32 GMT hedgehog said:

Mar 12, 2019 23:14:00 GMT andrewteale said:

Durham and Southampton results have been added to LEAP in the last week.

Entrants in the prediction competition may wish to note that Ricky Lambert and Richard McQuillan are the same person: www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/8119826.Election_candidate_hopes_namesake_will_propel_him_to_victory/

If only he had changed his name to Matt Le Tissier.

still has time

[Deleted]

Mar 14, 2019 22:05:21 GMT @nw12398 said:

Polls closing has come around, I know that Southampton will be counting tonight. I can confirm that the Lib Dems ran more than a paper campaign, although personally I wasn't involved and I don't know quite how extensive it was or whether it will work out. The socialists have been working quite hard as well and seem to have latched on to the image of the outgoing councillor, but many voters will be put off with the socialist label. Certainly an election which had to keep Labour on their toes, although they're certainly in a reasonable position to win. I know that UKIP and Integrity have put some effort in, and the Conservatives seem to have been quite quiet, although of course national politics mean they won't be completely irrelevant.

Should be an interesting result although at the same time I wouldn't be overly surprised by a firm Labour win.

are you using socialist as a noun in the way commentators did in the 50s?

[andrewp]

Mar 14, 2019 22:05:21 GMT @nw12398 said:

Polls closing has come around, I know that Southampton will be counting tonight. I can confirm that the Lib Dems ran more than a paper campaign, although personally I wasn't involved and I don't know quite how extensive it was or whether it will work out. The socialists have been working quite hard as well and seem to have latched on to the image of the outgoing councillor, but many voters will be put off with the socialist label. Certainly an election which had to keep Labour on their toes, although they're certainly in a reasonable position to win. I know that UKIP and Integrity have put some effort in, and the Conservatives seem to have been quite quiet, although of course national politics mean they won't be completely irrelevant.

Should be an interesting result although at the same time I wouldn't be overly surprised by a firm Labour win.

I was slightly surprised that the flow of the prediction competition was almost unanimous for a firm Labour win. I did put a firm  Labour win myself but did wonder whether there would be a serious challenge from anyone and whether the Socialist would do ok, but like you thought they woulld have done better with a different name,