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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 29, 2019 12:26:30 GMT
So only 5% of people who voted Tory in 2017 voted Remain in 2016? Don't be so silly.
Yes, maybe not 2%, but a rather low percentage. Looking at the polling for the Euros, if the Tories only manage 14%, then even these 14% won't all be Tory remainers. OTOH I don't think any Tory remainers are going to vote Brexit Party or UKIP. Chuckers maybe.
If the Tories intend to get a better result than GE2017, they'll need it to be higher. |
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Apr 29, 2019 13:34:58 GMT
Why would the PSOE go into coalition with a party which hss placed itself firmly right of centre?Podemos are a much better match. If the C's want to be a right wing rather than centre party it wouldn't do their cause any good to join a socialist-led government Electoral arithmetic. PSOE+Cs = 180 seats and a comfortable 2-party government. Instead, PSOE+Podemos+Compromis+Bildu+PNV = 176 and a 5-party arrangement. Only one of the previous four parliaments went the distance and there is a bit of fatigue and desire for more stability creeping in among the major parties. Also, it was the withdrawal of support by nationalists that brought down the previous PSOE administration, so they'd simply be setting themselves up for a repeat and it's virtually certain that the latter option (which will almost definitely happen) won't last 4 years. They also leave themselves open to the charge of pandering to regional nationalists. Cs were originally a "neither right nor left" centre party, but it was clear that their support came more from disaffected PP voters than from the PSOE and when Cs mooted supporting a PSOE-led government in 2015 it proved unpopular and they lost seats in 2016. Since then they've moved to the right more. Plus, as you and others have noted, they now scent blood and the chance to displace PP as the main centre right party, so it's very hard to see them supporting PSOE. |
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Post by polaris on Apr 29, 2019 14:06:19 GMT
Surely it wouldn't be viable for Bildu to take part in government, even in an informal confidence-and-supply arrangement. They're basically the Basque Sinn Fein (except they aren't abstentionists).
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 29, 2019 14:28:00 GMT
Why would the PSOE go into coalition with a party which hss placed itself firmly right of centre?Podemos are a much better match. If the C's want to be a right wing rather than centre party it wouldn't do their cause any good to join a socialist-led government Electoral arithmetic. PSOE+Cs = 180 seats and a comfortable 2-party government. Instead, PSOE+Podemos+Compromis+Bildu+PNV = 176 and a 5-party arrangement. Only one of the previous four parliaments went the distance and there is a bit of fatigue and desire for more stability creeping in among the major parties. Also, it was the withdrawal of support by nationalists that brought down the previous PSOE administration, so they'd simply be setting themselves up for a repeat and it's virtually certain that the latter option (which will almost definitely happen) won't last 4 years. They also leave themselves open to the charge of pandering to regional nationalists. Cs were originally a "neither right nor left" centre party, but it was clear that their support came more from disaffected PP voters than from the PSOE and when Cs mooted supporting a PSOE-led government in 2015 it proved unpopular and they lost seats in 2016. Since then they've moved to the right more. Plus, as you and others have noted, they now scent blood and the chance to displace PP as the main centre right party, so it's very hard to see them supporting PSOE. But there has to be some shared principle to add to the electoral arithmetic. I'm not convinced this is the case with Cs |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 29, 2019 14:29:11 GMT
Surely it wouldn't be viable for Bildu to take part in government, even in an informal confidence-and-supply arrangement. They're basically the Basque Sinn Fein (except they aren't abstentionists). Sinn Fein have been in government in NI though- and if Bildu are not abstentionist they are partaking in the state governance |
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Post by polaris on Apr 29, 2019 14:34:31 GMT
Electoral arithmetic. PSOE+Cs = 180 seats and a comfortable 2-party government. Instead, PSOE+Podemos+Compromis+Bildu+PNV = 176 and a 5-party arrangement. Only one of the previous four parliaments went the distance and there is a bit of fatigue and desire for more stability creeping in among the major parties. Also, it was the withdrawal of support by nationalists that brought down the previous PSOE administration, so they'd simply be setting themselves up for a repeat and it's virtually certain that the latter option (which will almost definitely happen) won't last 4 years. They also leave themselves open to the charge of pandering to regional nationalists. Cs were originally a "neither right nor left" centre party, but it was clear that their support came more from disaffected PP voters than from the PSOE and when Cs mooted supporting a PSOE-led government in 2015 it proved unpopular and they lost seats in 2016. Since then they've moved to the right more. Plus, as you and others have noted, they now scent blood and the chance to displace PP as the main centre right party, so it's very hard to see them supporting PSOE. But there has to be some shared principle to add to the electoral arithmetic. I'm not convinced this is the case with Cs I recall seeing some polling during the campaign which suggested that a PSOE-Cs coalition was the most popular option with the electorate. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 29, 2019 14:37:23 GMT
But there has to be some shared principle to add to the electoral arithmetic. I'm not convinced this is the case with Cs I recall seeing some polling during the campaign which suggested that a PSOE-Cs coalition was the most popular option with the electorate. You can't have a coalition between parties who strongly disagree with each other If the PSOE had continued in a Blairite direction and the C's had remained a centre party, perhaps. But then PSOE would have had less seats and Podemos more so it wouldnt be a supposedly easy option |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 29, 2019 14:42:07 GMT
Electoral arithmetic. PSOE+Cs = 180 seats and a comfortable 2-party government. Instead, PSOE+Podemos+Compromis+Bildu+PNV = 176 and a 5-party arrangement. Only one of the previous four parliaments went the distance and there is a bit of fatigue and desire for more stability creeping in among the major parties. Also, it was the withdrawal of support by nationalists that brought down the previous PSOE administration, so they'd simply be setting themselves up for a repeat and it's virtually certain that the latter option (which will almost definitely happen) won't last 4 years. They also leave themselves open to the charge of pandering to regional nationalists. Cs were originally a "neither right nor left" centre party, but it was clear that their support came more from disaffected PP voters than from the PSOE and when Cs mooted supporting a PSOE-led government in 2015 it proved unpopular and they lost seats in 2016. Since then they've moved to the right more. Plus, as you and others have noted, they now scent blood and the chance to displace PP as the main centre right party, so it's very hard to see them supporting PSOE. But there has to be some shared principle to add to the electoral arithmetic. I'm not convinced this is the case with Cs Yes I think my advice to the Cs would be not to go into a coalition with a larger party with a different political perspective, just for the sake of the nation's needs. The price to your own identity would be too high. I leave you to work out where that insight comes from. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 29, 2019 15:01:11 GMT
But there has to be some shared principle to add to the electoral arithmetic. I'm not convinced this is the case with Cs Yes I think my advice to the Cs would be not to go into a coalition with a larger party with a different political perspective, just for the sake of the nation's needs. The price to your own identity would be too high. I leave you to work out where that insight comes from. Senior and renowned elder statesman LibDem advocates ignoring the national interest and being solely concerned with party advantage. |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 29, 2019 15:11:55 GMT
Yes I think my advice to the Cs would be not to go into a coalition with a larger party with a different political perspective, just for the sake of the nation's needs. The price to your own identity would be too high. I leave you to work out where that insight comes from. Senior and renowned elder statesman LibDem advocates ignoring the national interest and being solely concerned with party advantage. yup |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 29, 2019 15:27:59 GMT
Surely it wouldn't be viable for Bildu to take part in government, even in an informal confidence-and-supply arrangement. They're basically the Basque Sinn Fein (except they aren't abstentionists). Sinn Fein have been in government in NI though- and if Bildu are not abstentionist they are partaking in the state governance The only question would be whether they wanted to - and what they would want. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 29, 2019 17:40:46 GMT
Why would the PSOE go into coalition with a party which has placed itself firmly right of centre? Podemos are a much better match. If the C's want to be a right wing rather than centre party it wouldn't do their cause any good to join a socialist-led government Well, they were in coalition together in Andalusia from 2015-18 (although that didn't work out well for either party, in hindsight). At the national level, Rivera and Sánchez had an agreement ready to go in 2016 but it didn't have the numbers. But last night PSOE supporters were shouting "not with Rivera" outside the party HQ and today Cs have ruled out negotiating with the Socialists. Ciudadanos do still try to position themselves as centrists sometimes, when it suits them. As a long-term observer of Spanish politics, these results are staggering. The PP carried just four provinces plus the City of Melilla. They haven't carried a single Autonomous Community either - the Socialists were ahead even in Galicia and Castilla y Leon. I'm not sure how I would have voted - my inclination would have been towards Ciudadanos but they have moved a little too far to the right recently. There's a whiff of Alejandro Lerroux about Albert Rivera. Finally, an amusing side-note is that Vox won a seat in Barcelona (it's a big district so parties only need about 4% for a seat). The PP actually carried a few more provinces, if you include the Senate results. Catalonia's own far-right party Plataforma per Catalunya dissolved itself in February and told its supporters to back Vox, so a seat there isn't that surprising. It's one of the few constituencies where the statutory 3% threshold actually means something, which cost a joint Republican Front/Pirates list a seat. What is amusing is that the PP is also down to a single seat in that region. The Senate election results tend to be ignored in Spanish general elections but they provide some interesting data. It's clear that many people do not just vote for a straight ticket of three and some candidates have big personal votes. For example, I looked up the result for Asturias. The PP candidate who won the fourth seat was 35,000 votes ahead of his two running mates. I am waiting for the votes from abroad to be counted tomorrow, but it looks like there could be far more 2:2 splits than usual, and even an unheard of 2:1:1 split in Madrid. That's probably caused by right-wing voters giving 1 vote each to the PP, Cs and Vox, whilst left-wing voters gave two votes to the PSOE and one to Podemos. In one province, there are fewer than 30 votes between the 4th- and 5th-placed candidates according to the provisional results. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 29, 2019 18:25:20 GMT
I’m probably alone then in thinking that not only would PSOE +Cs be the best thing for Spain’s stability politically, it would be the best thing for them in terms of government program. Spain has the separatists trying to break up the country and barking at the front door; and the far-right barking at the back door... their country needs them NOW. They should both put country above party and get to it.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 29, 2019 18:41:49 GMT
Surely it wouldn't be viable for Bildu to take part in government, even in an informal confidence-and-supply arrangement. They're basically the Basque Sinn Fein (except they aren't abstentionists). Sinn Fein have been in government in NI though- and if Bildu are not abstentionist they are partaking in the state governance It must be remembered that Bildu and its myriad predecessors have a serious beef with the PSOE. Indeed, only a few weeks ago they demanded that the PSOE apologised for the GAL: www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190406/bildu-afirma-no-terrorista-psoe-deberia-gal/388961350_0.html |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Apr 29, 2019 18:45:40 GMT
I’m probably alone then in thinking that not only would PSOE +Cs be the best thing for Spain’s stability politically, it would be the best thing for them in terms of government program. Spain has the separatists trying to break up the country and barking at the front door; and the far-right barking at the back door... their country needs them NOW. They should both put country above party and get to it. I consider Cs to be potential snakes-in-the grass, but I agree with you: a coalition between PSOE and Podemos plus others is pretty much a non-starter given a) the parliamentary arithmetic; b) the bad blood between the two parties and c) the dysfunctional tendencies of the Podemos party machine. |
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Apr 29, 2019 18:48:30 GMT
Why would the PSOE go into coalition with a party which has placed itself firmly right of centre? Podemos are a much better match. If the C's want to be a right wing rather than centre party it wouldn't do their cause any good to join a socialist-led government from 2015-18 (although that didn't work out well for either party, in hindsight). At the national level, Rivera and Sánchez had an agreement ready to go in 2016 but it didn't have the numbers. But last night PSOE supporters were shouting "not with Rivera" outside the party HQ and today Cs have ruled out negotiating with the Socialists. Ciudadanos do still try to position themselves as centrists sometimes, when it suits them. Catalonia's own far-right party Plataforma per Catalunya dissolved itself in February and told its supporters to back Vox, so a seat there isn't that surprising. It's one of the few constituencies where the statutory 3% threshold actually means something, which cost a joint Republican Front/Pirates list a seat. Yep, I mentioned the PSOE-Cs 2015 deal earlier. The reaction to it from Cs' supporters wasn't good and cost them seats a year later. That and Rivero's ambitions to displace the PP make a PSOE-Cs coalition unlikely this time, but there's no reason it couldn't happen in the future. There have been examples of PP-PSOE deals at regional level (Cantabria early 1990s and Basques 2009-2012) when both parties were competing with regional forces and the policy gap between PSOE and Cs is not as large as the PP - PSOE one. Psephologically, I think the Republican Front situation in Barcelona is only the second time the 3% threshold had had any value. The CDS narrowly missing a seat in Madrid in 1993 is the only other case AFAIK. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 29, 2019 19:08:27 GMT
I’m probably alone then in thinking that not only would PSOE +Cs be the best thing for Spain’s stability politically, it would be the best thing for them in terms of government program. Spain has the separatists trying to break up the country and barking at the front door; and the far-right barking at the back door... their country needs them NOW. They should both put country above party and get to it. Again, nobody needs the far-right hidden in "liberal" clothing. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Apr 29, 2019 19:40:10 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 29, 2019 20:15:12 GMT
If you're willing and eager to do a deal with the Francoist right, you're not a liberal in any meaningful sense.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 29, 2019 21:12:55 GMT
The absolutely abysmal result for the PP is a timely warning to all political parties not to f ucking push it. Even an extremely loyal core electorate (as the PP used to have) has a limit as to how much sh it they're prepared to take. But what should PP have done instead? Had they chosen that pretty woman, all 3 would perhaps have ended around 15%. In order to win the election it would have been Rivera's part to attract centrists. |
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