Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 28, 2019 23:33:48 GMT
Sanchez has a Catalan-free path to a majority - Podemos, Compromis, PNV, CC and PRC should all be relatively straightforward (although the PNV won’t be cheap) and get him to 177. I only make it 175? Right you are. Adding EH-Bildu technically brings it to 179 and keeps it 'Catalan-free', but the Basque radical left would drive a hard bargain. Oh, and Podemos want ministers this time, rather than just supporting a one-party minority government. In more sensible times, calmer heads would prevail and the PSOE and Ciudadanos would form a majority coalition. Alas, we are not living in sensible times. Rivera senses an opportunity to replace the PP as the main alternative to the Socialists (even though they didn't quite manage it tonight) and is not likely to squander it and break promises he made before the election in the process. Anyhow, it looks like the PSOE will win a majority of seats contested in the Senate. Of the 266 seats, 208 were up for grabs yesterday and the Socialists are on course for 122 of them. They only need 12 of the 58 indirectly elected senators to have complete control of the chamber. Whether they can reach that figure depends largely on next month's regional elections in 12 autonomous communities. I'd be very surprised if they fail to make it. From a psephological standpoint, I found it interesting to note that Ciudadanos have won direct Senate mandates for the first time thanks to Cádiz, Seville and Zaragoza, whilst the constituencies of Barcelona, Palencia and Soria appear on course for 2:2 splits. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 28, 2019 23:34:02 GMT
Thanks Georg. I was too lazy to work it out myself.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 29, 2019 0:12:27 GMT
The absolutely abysmal result for the PP is a timely warning to all political parties not to fucking push it. Even an extremely loyal core electorate (as the PP used to have) has a limit as to how much shit they're prepared to take.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 29, 2019 0:22:45 GMT
The absolutely abysmal result for the PP is a timely warning to all political parties not to f ucking push it. Even an extremely loyal core electorate (as the PP used to have) has a limit as to how much sh it they're prepared to take. According to the map of lower house results, only Ávila, Lugo, Navarre, Ourense, Salamanca and Melilla remain gluttons for punishment (and the last of those was basically a Belfast South 2015-style fluke). And Navarre only stuck with the centre right because there was a joint PP-UPN-Cs list, so it's not really much evidence of the PP holding off similar parties that are seen as less corrupt either. |
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Post by torremark on Apr 29, 2019 6:50:31 GMT
I'm sure Sanchez can form a government. After all, if anyone can hold a gun to a Basque's head, it's the PSOE...
That's a GALling assessment but you may well be right. Well in my bit Pilar de la Horadada the Spanish are almost as right wing as the immigrant Brits! |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 29, 2019 6:54:43 GMT
The lesson seems to be that being a centre-right party that tries to be more right-wing that usual is a waste of time if you have a genuinely right-wing party doing well at the same time. Is that a lesson the UK Conservatives will need to learn fast? |
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Post by bolbridge on Apr 29, 2019 7:29:57 GMT
Right you are. Adding EH-Bildu technically brings it to 179 and keeps it 'Catalan-free', but the Basque radical left would drive a hard bargain. Oh, and Podemos want ministers this time, rather than just supporting a one-party minority government. In more sensible times, calmer heads would prevail and the PSOE and Ciudadanos would form a majority coalition. Alas, we are not living in sensible times. Rivera senses an opportunity to replace the PP as the main alternative to the Socialists (even though they didn't quite manage it tonight) and is not likely to squander it and break promises he made before the election in the process. Anyhow, it looks like the PSOE will win a majority of seats contested in the Senate. Of the 266 seats, 208 were up for grabs yesterday and the Socialists are on course for 122 of them. They only need 12 of the 58 indirectly elected senators to have complete control of the chamber. Whether they can reach that figure depends largely on next month's regional elections in 12 autonomous communities. I'd be very surprised if they fail to make it. From a psephological standpoint, I found it interesting to note that Ciudadanos have won direct Senate mandates for the first time thanks to Cádiz, Seville and Zaragoza, whilst the constituencies of Barcelona, Palencia and Soria appear on course for 2:2 splits. My bad. EH Bildu are the only party Sanchez refused to deal with last time round, so I don't see it happening. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 29, 2019 7:44:05 GMT
Right you are. Adding EH-Bildu technically brings it to 179 and keeps it 'Catalan-free', but the Basque radical left would drive a hard bargain. Oh, and Podemos want ministers this time, rather than just supporting a one-party minority government. In more sensible times, calmer heads would prevail and the PSOE and Ciudadanos would form a majority coalition. Alas, we are not living in sensible times. Rivera senses an opportunity to replace the PP as the main alternative to the Socialists (even though they didn't quite manage it tonight) and is not likely to squander it and break promises he made before the election in the process. Anyhow, it looks like the PSOE will win a majority of seats contested in the Senate. Of the 266 seats, 208 were up for grabs yesterday and the Socialists are on course for 122 of them. They only need 12 of the 58 indirectly elected senators to have complete control of the chamber. Whether they can reach that figure depends largely on next month's regional elections in 12 autonomous communities. I'd be very surprised if they fail to make it. From a psephological standpoint, I found it interesting to note that Ciudadanos have won direct Senate mandates for the first time thanks to Cádiz, Seville and Zaragoza, whilst the constituencies of Barcelona, Palencia and Soria appear on course for 2:2 splits. Why would the PSOE go into coalition with a party which hss placed itself firmly right of centre? Podemos are a much better match. If the C's want to be a right wing rather than centre party it wouldn't do their cause any good to join a socialist-led government |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2019 7:44:38 GMT
Stunning result for Vox in Murcia Only two seats actually won. Well it's a small region. I was talking about the % vote |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 29, 2019 8:34:16 GMT
The absolutely abysmal result for the PP is a timely warning to all political parties not to f ucking push it. Even an extremely loyal core electorate (as the PP used to have) has a limit as to how much sh it they're prepared to take. Indeed. As the Conservative Party are shortly about to find out. |
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Post by polaris on Apr 29, 2019 9:22:35 GMT
The absolutely abysmal result for the PP is a timely warning to all political parties not to f ucking push it. Even an extremely loyal core electorate (as the PP used to have) has a limit as to how much sh it they're prepared to take. I think there is a lesson for the Tories in particular now that Farage's new Brexit party is gaining ground - that when there's a hard-right party on the rise, the centre-right will not gain by shifting itself further to the right. Doing so fails to appease people who want 'puro y duro' right-wing politics, but alienates the more moderate element of your vote (Tory Remainers in a British context). |
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Post by mrpastelito on Apr 29, 2019 9:35:47 GMT
(Tory Remainers in a British context). That's 2% of the electorate. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2019 9:37:11 GMT
(Tory Remainers in a British context). That's 2% of the electorate. <citation needed> |
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Post by polaris on Apr 29, 2019 9:41:31 GMT
(Tory Remainers in a British context). That's 2% of the electorate. So only 5% of people who voted Tory in 2017 voted Remain in 2016? Don't be so silly. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Apr 29, 2019 9:44:03 GMT
That's 2% of the electorate. So only 5% of people who voted Tory in 2017 voted Remain in 2016? Don't be so silly.
Yes, maybe not 2%, but a rather low percentage. Looking at the polling for the Euros, if the Tories only manage 14%, then even these 14% won't all be Tory remainers. OTOH I don't think any Tory remainers are going to vote Brexit Party or UKIP. Chuckers maybe.
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Post by polaris on Apr 29, 2019 9:47:50 GMT
As a long-term observer of Spanish politics, these results are staggering. The PP carried just four provinces plus the City of Melilla. They haven't carried a single Autonomous Community either - the Socialists were ahead even in Galicia and Castilla y Leon.
I'm not sure how I would have voted - my inclination would have been towards Ciudadanos but they have moved a little too far to the right recently. There's a whiff of Alejandro Lerroux about Albert Rivera.
Finally, an amusing side-note is that Vox won a seat in Barcelona (it's a big district so parties only need about 4% for a seat).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2019 10:05:01 GMT
So only 5% of people who voted Tory in 2017 voted Remain in 2016? Don't be so silly. Yes, maybe not 2%, but a rather low percentage Indeed, but somewhat more than 2% and so a non-negligible one. Until recently, Tory Remainers have been remarkably loyal to May (many of them viscerally loathe Corbyn) But as with the more numerous Tory Brexiteers, that loyalty is being pretty tested at present. |
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Post by polaris on Apr 29, 2019 10:06:12 GMT
The Senate election results tend to be ignored in Spanish general elections but they provide some interesting data. It's clear that many people do not just vote for a straight ticket of three and some candidates have big personal votes. For example, I looked up the result for Asturias. The PP candidate who won the fourth seat was 35,000 votes ahead of his two running mates.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 29, 2019 10:34:33 GMT
Clearly we can't extrapolate Spanish elections to the UK - different electoral system for a start.
However, Spain was a country which had effectively two parties plus the regionalists
Both of those parties have now split. The right appear to have been affected more because there are two new competitors for the right of centre vote. It would be interesting to see how much of C's vote came from the PP.
Whereas Podemos fell back slightly though remain a viable force.
In a general election the question is where the Brexit party would take votes from and that's going to depend on the status of Brexit at the time of the next election.
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Post by polaris on Apr 29, 2019 11:13:36 GMT
Effectively, the boot is now on the other foot. For many years the PP was the unified voice of the right, whereas the left was divided, with a chunk of its vote going to Izquierda Unida (or left-leaning regionalist outfits in a few places). Now they have split.
Podemos seem to have been affected by internal squabbling, particularly in Madrid.
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