WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 10, 2019 22:58:17 GMT
I don't remember if Spain counts overseas ballots separately, at a later point. If they do, then there could be a few minor adjustments to the seats, but if not then things seem to be fixed* thusly:
PSOE: 120 (-3)
PP: 88 (+22)
Vox: 52 (+28)
Unidas Podemos: 35 (-7)
ERC: 13 (-2)
Cs: 10 (-47)
JxCat: 8 (+1)
PNV: 7 (+1)
EH Bildu: 5 (+1)
Más País - Compromís: 3 (+3)
CUP: 2 (+2)
Navarra Suma: 2 (-)
Coalición Canaria: 2 (-)
BNG: 1 (+1)
PRC: 1 (-)
¡Teruel Existe!: 1 (+1)
*as mentioned earlier, there could still be a gain by PP at the expense of CpM PP beat them in Melilla.
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Post by greenhert on Nov 10, 2019 23:10:24 GMT
How do regional parties feel about coalitions with PSOE? PSOE cannot form a viable coalition without some progressive regional parties getting on board, and after the Catalonian independence issue most of these will not enter any coalition led by the PP.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 10, 2019 23:15:57 GMT
The risk of another election is Vox above 20%.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Nov 10, 2019 23:20:33 GMT
Seat changes? Looks bad for Cs  They've lost over 80% of their MPs. Not a great day for them. Rivera has just gone on TV, he's not resigned... yet. If he doesn't jump, he'll probably get pushed. Looks very 2015 Lib Dem, without the coalition. Shame. Interesting to see they survived in the tourist cities - outward looking, perhaps. Vox top the poll in areas with big immigration, either from Africa or, lol, England (Murcia). |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 10, 2019 23:21:44 GMT
How do regional parties feel about coalitions with PSOE? PSOE cannot form a viable coalition without some progressive regional parties getting on board, and after the Catalonian independence issue most of these will not enter any coalition led by the PP. Most of them are left wing outfits, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem, especially if Podemos come on board too. The foxes in the hen house though are CUP (they have a whiff of Sinn Fein to them) and ERC, which will try to hold a PSOE-led government to ransom over Catalonia. I haven't done the maths, but one way forward could be a PSOE/Podemos/Cs/et al situation. However I wouldn't hold my breath on that... |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 10, 2019 23:50:16 GMT
Highly unlikely. Spain is still getting used to the idea of making coalitions with parties on the same wing as them, let alone crossing the divide. It would be astonishing if it happened. It would almost be the final end of the civil war. About as likely as finishing up here with a grand coalition between Johnson and Corbyn, I would think. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 11, 2019 0:02:19 GMT
I don't remember if Spain counts overseas ballots separately, at a later point. If they do, then there could be a few minor adjustments to the seats, but if not then things seem to be fixed* thusly: PSOE: 120 (-3) PP: 88 (+22) Vox: 52 (+28) Unidas Podemos: 35 (-7) ERC: 13 (-2) Cs: 10 (-47) JxCat: 8 (+1) PNV: 7 (+1) EH Bildu: 5 (+1) Más País - Compromís: 3 (+3) CUP: 2 (+2) Navarra Suma: 2 (-) Coalición Canaria: 2 (-) BNG: 1 (+1) PRC: 1 (-) ¡Teruel Existe!: 1 (+1) *as mentioned earlier, there could still be a gain by PP at the expense of CpM PP beat them in Melilla. Counting has finished now in Melilla and PP pipped CpM by 152 votes! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 11, 2019 8:34:49 GMT
They've lost over 80% of their MPs. Not a great day for them. Rivera has just gone on TV, he's not resigned... yet. If he doesn't jump, he'll probably get pushed. Looks very 2015 Lib Dem, without the coalition. Shame. Interesting to see they survived in the tourist cities - outward looking, perhaps. Vox top the poll in areas with big immigration, either from Africa or, lol, England (Murcia). In the case of Ceuta, Vox topped the poll where Spaniards migrated to Africa! |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 11, 2019 10:58:41 GMT
Sanchez, you idiot.
And the humiliation for Cs at least is richly deserved, there is a good argument their rightward lurch helped create the Vox monster.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Nov 11, 2019 11:35:06 GMT
Sanchez, you idiot. And the humiliation for Cs at least is richly deserved, there is a good argument their rightward lurch helped create the Vox monster. No, there's a very poor argument that it did. |
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Post by therealriga on Nov 11, 2019 14:47:18 GMT
They've lost over 80% of their MPs. Not a great day for them. Rivera has just gone on TV, he's not resigned... yet. If he doesn't jump, he'll probably get pushed. Looks very 2015 Lib Dem, without the coalition. Shame. Interesting to see they survived in the tourist cities - outward looking, perhaps. The first, not the second. They failed to win seats in touristy Granada or The Canaries or Balearics, for example. Also, if you drill down into provincial or even municipal results, you'll find little to no evidence of a tourist town bounce. They won seats in Sevilla, Valencia and Barcelona with 7.9%, 7.6% and 5.9% respectively. However, they also polled 8% plus with no seats in places like Badajoz, Burgos and Valladolid, none of which will ever top package holiday destination lists. The common denominator where they won seats was, simply enough, district magnitude. There are 8 provinces which elect 9 members or more and Cs won in 7 of those (Murcia, which is not really that English, was the exception) as the effective threshold is lower. The Lib Dem 2015 comparison is much closer. Cs aimed for a centrist, equidistant approach, but ran into the problem that all such parties face. That'll work and get you votes across the spectrum as long as the larger left or right blocs get majorities. But when you get hung parliament territory you have to choose sides. In 2015, C's decided to support the PSOE. Their problem was that despite the centrist approach, their main selling point was opposition to regional separatism and so they got more votes from PP than PSOE and a lot of the former voters were none too amused at C's seeming to back a socialist government, leading to a drop in support. Thereafter, C's positioned themselves more as centre-right, but that made them PP-lite in the eyes of centre-left voters who withdrew support, while also being vulnerable to any PP revival. Ultimately, the latter happened, while Vox also outflanked them on the unionist/anti-regionalist approach. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 11, 2019 17:09:25 GMT
All of the above. Plus Rivera's touch of the Fuehrerprinzip.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 13, 2019 10:30:39 GMT
Left vs. Right (provided by "El Diario"):  Changes April vs. November:  Left = BNG, CHA, CUP, CpM, EnComúPodem, EH Bildu, ERC, Geroa Bai, Más Pais Right = CCa-NC-PNC, Cs, EAJ-PNV, JxCAT, NA+, PP, Vox, XAV |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 13, 2019 10:47:20 GMT
Right-minus-Left, DeViations from NationalAverage: Without regionalists/nationalists:   With regionalists/nationalists:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 13, 2019 10:52:11 GMT
As You can see, Andalusia is for the first time more to the Right than Spain as a whole!
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 14, 2019 14:20:49 GMT
I don't remember if Spain counts overseas ballots separately, at a later point. If they do, then there could be a few minor adjustments to the seats, but if not then things seem to be fixed* thusly: PSOE: 120 (-3) PP: 88 (+22) Vox: 52 (+28) Unidas Podemos: 35 (-7) ERC: 13 (-2) Cs: 10 (-47) JxCat: 8 (+1) PNV: 7 (+1) EH Bildu: 5 (+1) Más País - Compromís: 3 (+3) CUP: 2 (+2) Navarra Suma: 2 (-) Coalición Canaria: 2 (-) BNG: 1 (+1) PRC: 1 (-) ¡Teruel Existe!: 1 (+1) *as mentioned earlier, there could still be a gain by PP at the expense of CpM PP beat them in Melilla. After overseas ballots were counted, the only change was PP gaining a seat and PNV loosing a seat in Bizkaia, in the Basque Country. That will make things even trickier for Sanchez... |
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Post by observer on Dec 22, 2019 0:10:33 GMT
A bit late - apologies - but I've been very busy.
An observation on Vox's good result: a week before the election I enjoyed a social get-together which may cast some light upon the Vox total and also on the allegations, that appear to be false, of Vox's 'far right' nature.
My wife's family are the backbone of the PSOE in their village. Most are PSOE members and in the wider family, two are Podemos members. PSOE banners are stuffed everywhere and spill over onto other family members' land. No harm done. All nice people.
But while we were eating and drinking - the Spanish are always sociable - the conversation turned to the forthcoming election. My wife's aunty and husband had been thinking anew. They were thinking of backing Vox.
Why so? Wide-ranging reasons. They felt they were the only party that differed from the PP/PSOE/Podemos/Ciudadanos consensus. In particular they spoke of the TVE (like our BBC) consensus on 'climate change', plastics, feminism, the EU. To understand the point you have to understand TVE whose editorial line is governed by govt appointees. Its editorial line no longer changes between elections. Think about it - all the parties share a consensus on these issues and, due to their support of the EU, none can attack the dominant line coming from Brussels and Madrid.
In particular, TVE donates about 5 minutes of each bulletin to 'feminism'. Gender violence etc etc etc. If there is no real news on this subject to report they will send a camera crew to the tiniest village where the mayor may have had some anti 'machista violencia' remark.
All family members present regarded TVE as 'anti men'.
My aunt-in-law proceeded to tell a story of how 'victims' of 'domestic violence' get cash payments for shopping their husbands. They then, allegedly pocket the cash, and continue living with their husbands. No evidence of 'machista violencia' is required and none is usually forthcoming.
She then proceeded to say that she was even coming round to the feeling the Spain should leave the EU but didn't expand on that.
I contend that the same feeling is arising in Spain as has arisen elsewhere across the western world - a cultural disconnect. The political class has its own agenda and is frantically pushing that upon the citizenry - but that people can see the BS.
The establishment parties - of left, centre and the PP - are now rolling out the same template as has been employed against parties elsewhere that have spoken out.
I do not know if Vox is extremist. But I recognise the same BS that is being employed against them.
Incidentally, someone further up the thread referred to the immigrants in Murcia - which Vox won - as being mainly English. The protest wasn't against the English but there is anger at the number of North Africans being employed for peanuts - almost certainly illegally - in Murcian agriculture. The Spanish are very kind and generous people but many are now unemployed and semi-destitute - and they believe the African labourers who you see queueing at the roadside every day for work - are costing them their jobs because they work for such low wages. Who can blame them? Who of us, in their position, would think differently?
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